Carvers Gap

I think this storm is going to turn the corner. Lots of ingredients in play for a big winter storm - western ridge, NAO, cold source, and room to climb. That gif is a really good illustration of each GEFS member's track. So, one can really see the differences in the model - and there are not many. The biggest thing to work out is whether there is a transfer of energy to the coast. Again, with these big storms, it is not uncommon for that to happen in E TN. Blend the CMC, UK, and GFS...pretty good track and storm.

FTR, the GFS is straight loaded on this run.

@Holston_River_Rambler, would it be possible for you go gif the "MSLP + Member Low Locations" from say 60-150 hours for the 12z GEFS? That is the one where all of the low members are one, single map. I have been using the East Coast view FWIW. That will give everyone a really good idea of the good and bad with the ensemble layout. Of note, you all can see a faint shadow of energy go through middle TN, a low in the Lakes, and predominantly most lows around Savannah. IF there is an energy handoff, the energy would handoff to Savanah from TN. I have seen that happen, but that is really rare. The model shows a pretty decent signal for a coastal only, but not a guarantee. The lows in the Lakes....yep, a problem. That is probably what is wrecking thermals in the E TN valley.

Correction...I don't think the 12z GEFS is south. The precip shield has expanded pretty significantly. Track is generally the same.

The 12z GEFS is coming in south of the deterministic not unsurprisingly. Could it be the deterministic is trending faster than the ensemble can catch up? Absolutely possible. But...until that deterministic locks in, I roll with the ensemble even this late in the game. So far, the 12z GFS is an outlier. Now, it can score a coup. We just saw that happen. However, it is oscillating from amped to GOM slider with each run. Recommendation for now....just blend the major operational models. That will get us pretty close. The dry slot is a problem for E TN, but not on all modeling. Downscoping is almost always a problem with slp on the coast. When it is an inland runner, precip can overcome that since it is closer to the storm center. Modeling is trying to get a handle on what could be a pretty big storm for many areas in the East.

LOL. Jeff got it first.... The other thing that we are seeing is some energy transfer from the eastern valley to the Piedmont. This has the chance to be a major winter storm form here to the Northeast. These types of storms often don't have details worked out until the storm is actually under way. I have been dry slotted when there was no dry slot forecast. I have been hammered when modeling jogged one way or the other at the last minute. I highly doubt that modeling even remotely has the specifics worked out. The generality is there is likely a winter storm affecting millions. The specifics of "who" not so much.

I think we are going to see a significant winter storm over a good portion of the forum area. I could be wrong. But that GFS run cranks. It definitely has some pieces the E TN peeps won't want, but the CMC is an entirely different solution. The GFS is basically a dry slot in a comma head. It is not so much that it falls apart as we get dry slotted. The dry slot bullseye is going to move around some. But the 12z suite brings frozen to most counties in our forum area. I really, really don't want what the CMC is dishing. However, that is a very plausible outcome, and fits climatology.

Long range deterministic runs and their ensembles are honking for an overrunning event around the 20th. That probably would impact western areas. I have seen that setup many times, and it is there plain as day on modeling.

They took out the weaker solutions?

The 18z Euro sure looked a lot like the 18z GFS. Didn’t quite head up the coast but trending that way.

Clean phase instead of the dirty phase from the past few days. That low in the Lakes got entrained. Spins right down into the developing storm. And we aren't far off with the system behind it.

The 18z GEFS has it.

This is gonna be a monster run with the small systems which follow the bl......bigger storm.

The comma would have blizzard conditions in our mountains on that run. 40mph gusts with moderate to heavy snow falling along the TN/NC line. TRI would have 25-30mph gusts under the comma head.

All I can say.....I have no idea if we see anything close to that(probably not in the NE). But if that is real, learn everything you can when tracking it. We don't get those very often. That would go in a book some day. If anything, just enjoy that run.

Can anyone get a Kuchara map for just that storm including the upslope after, ~ roughly Jan 11-13?

42" in 24 hours. (Kuchera)

Somebody up there just got four feet on that run. That was a blizzard run. edit: 3' for that storm. I forgot to take out the current storm.

The guys in the MA forum might need some smelling salts after that run.

That has 78mph sustained winds at 156.

That gets to 966 off NYC. That is a blizzard for them.

If that phases misses, there is one which is only about 24-36 hours right behind it.

The low diving into the backside of that storm caused the system to back the southwest flow just a bit. That caused the southwest flow in front. The "low in the lakes" setup yields more snow, but a less powerful system. The only issue with that setup is that the slp could trend northwest over several runs. That is a really big storm. It deepens rapidly. That is a boomer. But all-in-all, we take that run in spades.

Looks like there is something right behind it.

@Daniel Boone, that 18z GFS run a 95-96 redux?