Carvers Gap

Time of day appears to make a significant difference in each run. This hit E TN at night....would be a mess if it verifies.

Pretty significant ice storm on the 12z GFS. 0.72 of ice in @Daniel Boonecountry.

12z GFS is coming onto the coast further south with the energy...maybe a significant change? Let's see how different it gets downstream...either going to cut really sharp or be flat????

Did u see the 18z Euro at 144? Looked south of 12z on that run....

Nice run of the 18z GFS. Flatter and lots of energy rotating through.

It still has 45 degree departures on this run. Getting colder with each passing frame.

This run make much more sense than the past several for the GFS. The good thing is the base of the trough is a bit flatter, and not in Cuba.

I also think it has finally weakened that cutter so that it doesn't pull down the mother load all at once.....

As today has progressed, I think the general idea seems to be for two systems. That is starting to make more sense given the axis of the cold air, the push from those cold highs, and likely multiple waves. Each wave pushed the boundary to the southeast. That isn't a bad setup for whoever is on the northwest side of that. Significant CAD for NC looks likely - been a while since we have talked about that. Ice, then snow, then severe cold....not great.

Looks a lot like the 12z Euro AI run with the first and second systems.

Starting to look like a multi-day overrunning event per this run. And the other models were flirting with it at 12z, especially ensembles.

Moving at tortoise speed. The 12z EURO AIFS didn't look too dissimilar at the surface. Light years difference between the two at 500. Bad ice storm for I-40 in TN and NC per that run.

Same trend as the last several systems. Too amped, and then slides south and east with each run. Still not there yet, but close. The 12z Euro AIFS looked a lot like this. The GFS dug less into the Four Corners this run.

18z GFS is a bit flatter this run. Let's see if it cuts.

The three global ensembles look really good this afternoon - widespread snow. Euro/CMC look the best which is good since they have been leading the way. The GEFS isn't bad.

Yeah, I think the CMC is gonna win this battle. It won't be as good with the details, but it is a lot better when cold air is on the table. The Euro solution at 12z is just an amped solution of the 12z CMC.

I am hoping this is the same version but with precip! Wasn't the EPO off the charts that year? It seems a little more normal this year? Now, for the record, it is one of my analogs this year, and I agree that is a very viable option. I chickened out using 95-96, and wish I had now.

Euro may have a second system.

12z Euro is more along the lines of my thinking. That is what happens when the energy is not held in the West....we get a flatter wave. Then, boom.

I do look over my should just a bit with the GFS, because I generally go with the lowest denominator in terms of weather. LOL. In other words, the worst/warmest solution is probably right. The GFS has an uncanny ability to see things other models cannot, and I like it because it kind of gets out of the box. Where it really missed(as noted in my last post) is it missed the cold front during the first week of January. That said, if it is right...I think it actually helps us down the line. It has been a bit colder than other models. I think some of those system along the GOM will trend northward. That suppressed look usually is a good thing for SE peeps in Chattanooga.

It did. I have noticed that the GFS has had some great solutions which other modeling didn't have recently. Over time, the solution would trend southeast (over the East). I wondered why that was happening so often. Like the CMC and Euro wouldn't even have the system or the system would be across the GOM while the GFS had it in Indiana. If memory serves me correctly, I checked, and noticed the GFS spinning things up over the Southwest. That caused everything to cut. Now, as John notes, cutters are always on the table, and I 100% agree that is on the table. I just want to see the GFS get some support or drop the solution if it is wrong. The GFS was the last on board for the upcoming cold. It originally had the East roasting during the first week of January - full on torch.

I really encourage you all (and I learned this from @tnweathernut) to look at runs at 500 in addition to the surface. What the GFS is doing at 500 is much different.

I still think the 12z GFS is off its rocker. It is the only model sending the winter storm energy into the Four Corners. I don't think it has been right when it has done this all season. The CMC is a much more reasonable solution. The GFS has no support for that solution from other global models at this point.

The 6z GFS is digging too far into the southwest IMHO. That is likely an error. Every time it does that, the system we are watching...cuts. Both the CMC and Euro don't dig that wave into the southwest as much which results in a flatter solution. That also makes me think the flatter solutions are more likely - i.e. overrunning somewhere over our forum area similar to 96, but obviously not exactly the same. The 0z GFS doesn't dig into the southwest as much. Trends in the west at 500 will tell us the story. For now, the GFS looks in error at 6z yet again(but sometimes it is right....)

Heavy rain and a band of high winds are rolling through right now.