Carvers Gap

First (potential ice) system is further south, but not ice yet on the AIFS. Second system is below.

Yeah, good insight. I think with this much cold and a potential winter storm on the tracks....they are all over the place.

The 18z GEFS mean will join the 12z CMC mean. Happy Hour has been good lately.

The 18z GEFS is a winter storm for Tennessee as well.

The system on the 6th....the GEFS has several members well south of the TN/AL line.

The 18z GEFS has ice into the mid-South at 147.

Honestly, at this rate it could trend south of us like the CMC. That is an ice storm as is for much of I40 across the state of TN.

The 18z GFS is much further south this run w/ frozen precip encompassing most of the state on this run. Icy.

I am not where I can post images right now, but the CPC hazards map is a Christmas tree.

Possible or it could just snow in New Orleans, Charleston, Savannah, or….Tampa/Orlando. I don’t think any of those places are exempt at this range.

Somebody check this. Does the 12z GEFS have us(TRI and many other stations) below freezing from Jan 7-14???

If we get any snow or ice on the ground, we may make a run at some lows I thought would never be approached again in my lifetime.

This is starting to show back up. Real feel.

Here is the comparison 12z vs 0z EPS. Notice how much colder.

I gotta be honest, the EPS sure looks a lot like the ICON and CMC.

EPS left. Euro right. Both are 12z.

I don't think the EPS supports the operational.......further south and much colder.

Temps on the GEFS are about 5 degrees colder for the Jan 6 event. Trend is for lower heights over the TN valley as well. All of that compared to 6z. That means the GFS and its ensemble flattened the system out. I would guess the CMC is going to win this battle. The Icon might score the coup. Let's see if the Euro has any positive trends.

Left is the new 12z GEFS. Right is the 6z GEFS. Just look at the blue isotherms, and you can see the new ensemble run is flatter.

Just tagging onto the Mill's post....for those of us who really enjoy winter weather, this is the kind of pattern we want to track. Sure, it could turn up 0s, but more often than not....we are going to have multiple events(maybe just minor) to track. The duration of the cold is of great interest right now. JB thinks the duration is shorter due to warming of Europe. However, the European teleconnection of late has been pretty lousy(meaning recent winters of cold in Europe and warm in the East). The GEFS ext last night and the Euro ext both kind of slide the trough into the Mountain West but the SER really struggles to stay in place later this month - surprisingly. Anyway, enjoy the pattern. Winter is on our doorstep. Be sure to unhook those hoses, and cover those outside faucets.

Get to the Millwx post...

My money is still on the GFS coming south and east.

There used to be an old saying that the lower the latitude on the California coast...the better for us. I certainly pumps the ridge out fronting the plains, but it deepens the trough over the EC. That made it tough for the cold air to get out of the way. This is kind of a pay me now or pay me later pattern. The GFS is multiple events - too many to list in a post. Right now, all of the 12z model suite (GFS, UK, ICOn, CMC) have significant frozen precip with the first system, and that doesn't even count the rest. If you get a chance to read Millwx's post in the MA, go find it and read it. He is a met, and talks about this set-up and looks at its potential. Really good read.

One would think the 12z CMC is about to do the same w/ a 1040 hp sitting over the top of that in the southern Prairies of Canada.