Carvers Gap

So this was a southern slider. To recap, the system came in slightly north of where it did on the West Coast at 6z. The system in front held back a bit, and didn't allow heights to pump in front of the Jan 6 system. A big 1040 sat right on top and pushed it south. Plausible. But is it right? In the words of George Washington on SNL, "Nobody knows."

at 147, they system is stalled over central Alabama with snow breaking out into the Carolinas.

144, and heavy snow and ice are breaking out across the eastern sections of the forum.

Just checking to make sure this is indeed the right day of this model run...major winter storm for the TN Valley at 138 and 141.

at 135, this is a pretty significant winter storm for W TN as the slp is crawling.

At 129, system is slowing as it is having trouble cutting into the hp just to its north.

At 123 a winter storm is breaking out across W TN...mostly snow.

at 111, significantly less ridging is in front. 1043 high is out front and over the top. Flow is flatter. This might be different than 6z.

12z GFS is rolling. Flow is flatter. Sorry coming onshore at 60 is slightly further north. 12z ICON was a textbook cutter.

I think you all know your microclimates better than I do. The Euro practically has no icing at all or frozen precip south of the TN/KY border. When I say that, that is with respect to lower elevations. The Plateau and the Smokies would probably be a different forecast. The GFS and CMC still have some ice...GFS particularly. Trends overnight and at 6z are more toward rain.

Good news for the longer term. Really, I am pulling for Chattanooga to get a score. This type of cold could bring chances for that area.

I will probably keep tracking this weekend's system while knowing that rain is the more likely solution than not(for the majority of the event...and front end thump implied). That said, the 6z EPS is colder while the 6z GEFS is warmer(still ice). As MRX noted, much of this uncertainty will get cleared up with time on wx modeling. I think the potential for ice is in the eastern valley and along the TN/KY line.

If it cuts enough, severe is on the table. For now, I think the front end thump seems more likely, but the UK solution can't be ruled out.

Just some morning thoughts.... 1. Unless modeling comes back around today or tomorrow(still 5 days out), I think the weekend system is a sloppy mess or just rain. The problem with the eastern valley is if cold gets trapped. I won't even begin to touch the ice situation potential until much closer to the event. MRX said as much this morning, i.e. very tough forecast. Significant snowfall looks increasingly unlikely. 2. Temperature moderation on modeling, but still very cold. Honestly, thankfully we are seeing some temperature moderation on modeling. If we want snow, the southern extent of the cold has to lessen. And I honestly don't like crazy cold wind chills. 3. We may whiff on this weekend's system, but as Holston noted, there are opportunities after this one. 4. Cold is likely going to come in 4+ waves. These resupplies will likely bring snow with them, or connect with moisture from the GOM. This colder pattern will slowly burn itself out beginning maybe around Jan 20th. 5. There is always a chance this is cold and dry due to the trough axis being a bit too far to the east. That said, I do think we score on northwest flow events at the very least. 6. When the NE TN/SW VA/ SE KY snow mean is juicy, that is usually a good thing for everybody else. The GEPS and GEFS look really good. The EPS is less, but respectable. 7. I think North Carolina will break their snow drought. 8. The colder analog package for January likely runs up the score through Jan 20th. Then the warm analogs may well try to pull back some ground. BN for the month seems likely though. 9. February? I think it goes warm but w/ 2-3 pushes of cold air. I think March goes cold. The interesting thing about big cold snaps is that sometimes we break for spring right after. So, a warm March wouldn't surprise me either. 10. Remember that ensembles are probably better when outside of d6 or d7 - reminder goes for me as well!!!!

The 0z CMC was more of a transfer of energy from the TN Valley to the NC Piedmont. Both the GFS and CMC get energy to the coast….I think that is the likely outcome however that ends up. Slider or cutter or Miller A(now part of the equation). Ice looks probable.

0z CMC is ice and then cuts. ICOn and CMC are now cutters. GFS is now a suppressed slider. Whiplash!

I wonder if that is allowing HP to force the storm south and keep it colder. Before, the storm was out ahead of it.

Looks like the 0z CMC is ice.

The cutter that once went to western MI several runs ago is sliding over Tallahassee, Florida.

Kind of a wonky run as convection cuts off the feed northward....just slides across the GOM. Risk is suppression with this run.In reality, that run would be nice I think.

at 153, winter storm for middle and west Tn underway...

at 150, looks formidable.

12z GFS, bout to unwrap this run....1041 hp sitting right over the top at 129.

Where we are tonight....Cold (maybe extreme) is still on the table. Winter wx chances are possible. The worst of this appears to have a duration of about 7 days...8th - 15th. All of that could change as some of these dates are still in the d10-15 window. We knew at some point that we might be tracking another great winter pattern. Is this the next great pattern that people will talk about for decades? We will know soon enough. If it doesn't work out, we know the drill. LOL. But at some point, we are going to see another great pattern either way.....I think.

Re the 18z Euro AIFS....The first system is slower and flatter with no cutter that I can see....just a warm nose. Main precip line which stretched across KY at 12z is now over Tenn on this run.