Carvers Gap

Looks like a weak phase at 500....

The 12z GFS going to try to phase just after 192?

I remember that one. We had downslope on the west slopes of the Apps. It banked the cold up against the Plateau. E TN, especially points NE of Knoxville and on the Plateau need to keep an eye out for sure. The 12z ICON posed that risk for sure.

Pretty rare to see LR, 16 day modeling go end-to-end with cold and chances for storms on globals. We have that on the GFS, Euro AIFS 6z, and the CMC. I am not sure global actually can even see the end of the pattern yet. I think we are good for about three weeks of cold, then IDK. We might steal one more week of seasonal before a warm-up. The Euro weeklies control is just one cold shot after another(for 46 days) as is the control for the GEFS ext. Their ensembles, though, tip the trough back West after Jan 20 and send temporary shots of cold SE. Either option wouldn't surprise me. The trough to the Mountain West seems probably...if anything because we will due a break. Morning thoughts: 1. Jan 6 looks baked in the cake. Possible front end ice, and then rain. Time of day will be crucial to getting precip right, and if the storm moves rapidly enough to trap existing cold in the valleys. 2. What happens after that? This is a no holds barred pattern. I don't think modeling even remotely have details correct after the 6th. This has the chance to be a prolonged cold shot. For the Jan 6 system, we have seen runs take cutters to Michigan and slide a low to Tallahassee. It looks like deterministic models finally have the cone narrowed down. At range, those wild deterministic runs remind us that (at range) ensembles are the way to go. Cold looks very likely, and maybe extreme at times. I liked 2018 as an analog for my winter forecast ideas(one of only two analogs). I still like it, but I do think we see more snow(maybe much more snow) than that year. We will see. Why? December is just not a great month climo wise IMBY. Yes, recently it has snowed more in December...but not really a ton prior to 2009 in my lifetime (locations at elevation are a different story). January can feature a more active pattern than December as December is exiting our driest time of the year. 3. Best snow mechanisms in order of likelihood seen on modeling the past few days....embedded northern stream energy (clippers for lack of a better word), anafront, and sliders. Could we see a Miller A? Possibly, but the 500 pattern makes it tough right now. As the trough backs into the west between the 15th and 25th...that might be our best shot or an inland runner. I do think we see an anafront snow before this is all said and done. I also think a mid-south slider is probable given the pattern, the deep cold, and history. Could is snow in Florida? Maybe. However, I suspect models are overcooking the cold in most(not all cases). That means the pattern probably adjusts northward some. If the pattern flattens out some, then multi-day overrunning is possible. 4. 1985 and 1977. Those have been kicked around a lot. Honestly, they were probably best left on the shelf with their numbers retired. However, there are elements of those years found in upcoming modeling. I find that pretty remarkable. Both of those years featured wild weather. And it is good to remember that really cold air can take minimal precip and cause systems to over-perform. So even the slightest precip on a map could yield decent results. I hope when this is all said and done that we are looking at a new, modern benchmark month for winter. Happy New Year!!!

The further south this makes landfall on the West Coast, the better the chances it exits. at a similar latitude. Opens the door for an inland runner down the line. However, for now, looks very similar to the ICON. I wonder if it meanders as much as it did?

The ensemble is warmer. At this range, we might transition to the deterministic leading the way and the ensemble trying to catch up. Remember, storms reappear often at 5 days......

18z Euro feeling the cold...much colder run. I agree w/ Boone...good chance this trends southward given the strength of the incoming cold. I would not be surprised to see an EC blizzard w/ this or the trailer.

Butterly effect!

There used to be a high precip pivot in SW NC and Upstate SC, right? I remember looking at that as a kid, and wondering how that got there.

This pretty much sums up that run, and Holston's image earlier is even better.

Agree. Greased the skids, and a very realistic scenario.

Here is an interesting stat. The northern keys have seen frost. Key West has never had frost or wintry precipitation dating back to the earliest European settlers' records.

1985 was triple weighted by CPC today and 1977 was double weighted for their d8-14 analogs. The mechanism is there. The thing about a cutter with that type of cold lurking...it can grab the mother load and send it.

That has kind of been the formula during past winters for snow. Now, what would be wild would be what John had mentioned which is kind of daily snows which modeling doesn't pick up, because rations are crazy high.

Somebody has a 55 degree departure from normal. This run is just silly cold. When the GFS cuts with that first system, it goes wildly cold.

Those are the lows that I wasn't sure I would see again in my lifetime. We are about to find out if the atmosphere still has that type of extreme in it. I kind of hope not. But OTH, it would be amazing to see. I guess I don't have a choice either way!

I "think" that is snow on the ground after the anafront. I think that is our best path to snow. With ratios in that cold, we could see 4-8" of snow easy.

Man, has it been windy here today. Probably one of the only times I had to be really careful to be ready to handle a wind gust against our vehicle while on the interstate.

@Greyhound, we need an update on the metal snowman.

That is just mind boggling. Got the entire hemisphere, and the PV found our zipcode on that run. Those analogs above might be right.

Who was it that owned the metal snowman?

Feels kind of toasty at just -31 at TRI. I am getting DMs from people in Florida who have found a missing elk, and would like to return it.

All time record lows within reach on that run. That is a textbook example of why modeling is a mess today. Modeling just isn't built to handle cold like that at this latitude.

Man, 258 on the GFS....chasing some all-time record lows.