Carvers Gap

Regarding the 10th.... Roughly 6/30 GEFS members have the storm - about 20%. Roughly 8/30 GEPS members have the storm - about half. Interestingly, almost all of the ones that miss....follow-up with that energy a couple of days later. Mostly snow and pretty good storms at that. EPS is pretty similar to the GEFS but a little less enthused. Short story...There are two camps for the 10th on modeling. One is an phase on the 10th, and the other is a couple of days later. I tend to lean towards a phase with the northern stream for a storm on the 10th. I could be wrong. However, the GFS has modeled the southwest(against my earlier suspicions for the system on the third) correctly when other models did not. For now, it gets the nod for scoring a big time coup on Jan 6. It also caught that trend before any other deterministic or ensemble member, even its own ensemble.

As for the system two...the point of inflection (go, no go) looks like if the northern stream will grab the energy over the southwest. The 12z ICON and GFS got the phase. The 12z CMC and Euro did not. Ensembles will be unlikely to show that phase at this range. They will wash-out that solution. When there is no storm, the 500 maps look nearly identical. When there is a storm, there is a phase there. Several days ago the concern was suppression. I think we have exactly opposite of that problem - for now. Don't be surprsied if the cold shows back up on modeling either.

Johnson County's roads are white per scannerfood on FB.

Kicks and giggles.

12z UKMET is south for system 1 and has system 2 on deck ready to rock.

Either situation w/ the 12z GFS or CMC works. If the first system misses, it leaves "money in the bank" over the southwest, and the next system picks it up. I know a folks don't like JB...but I learned that setup from listening to him over the years. Generally, that is a true statement if the energy is real. Add 8-9 days out, really that is about all that we can ask for.

The 12z CMC does indeed grab that energy with the next pass....left us at 240 with a slp sitting in the eastern Panhandle which is traditionally a good spot. Looked like it had plenty of room to gain latitude. Again, for now, looks like pay me now or pay me later with that energy in the southwest. We just want it consolidated and not sheered into two system - I don't "think."

All I want to see is the northern and southern streams interacting at this range. The GFS and CMC are loaded up in that regard.

The 12z CMC missed almost exactly like the 6z GFS did. Looks like it will phase the let behind energy with the next system.

Looks to me like some warm air slides up the valley ahead of the storm, and then switches to snow as the storm slides by. That used to be pretty common at TRI. I doubt higher elevations would see mix with that. Seems like in 94 or 96(I was in Knoxville at the time....) that we had some glaze which was followed by snow, and then cold. It was a mess. I was cleaning of my car, and the glaze shattered. I thought I had broken the rear window!!! LOL. That glaze also backed up the water from draining on my roof....came right into the apartment on Lonas.

My guess (FWIW) is this will get stronger over time and jog northwest. Modeling is just now potentially figuring this out. If it consolidates during future runs, it would likely be stronger. That is where we want it at this range IMHO.

This is the type of run we want to see on modeling at this range. I haven't looked, but am guessing it managed to phase. Really good look.

It's baaaaa-aaaack.

Morning thoughts.... 1. I know MRX says ice doesn't fit climatology. However, modeling has continued to shift ice to the TN/KY border and south of it. MRX usually know, but modeling has me looking over my shoulder. That trend is going to need to monitored. At some point, modeling should start trending back north, but every once in a while modeling doesn't sense the cold...and just keeps pushing south. The RGEM caught this trend first. It is a good canary in the coal mine if it continues southward. 2. The 6z GFS was a miss with the system on the 10th. Players are still on the field. It just missed the phase as it formed a cutoff over northern Baja, and held energy back. JB would call that a pay me now or pay me later piece of energy. Why? Well, it comes out later in the next cycle of storms, and brings snow to similar places.

0z RGEM is a lot of ice for TN. Maybe the cold is overdone. The 0z 12k NAM shifted the ice south but not quite to the TN/KY border. Modeling is maybe sensing the cold.

Knox posted the ensemble. Here is the control for the Weeklies...

That phase looks very much like the GFS. Hopefully, we see that continue. Even on the misses yesterday, that is the general look.

If anything, extreme runs verifying are so rare. So, the trend is often to moderate towards norms. The norm is not Orlando. The GFS does have support from the 12z Euro AIFS. Need to reel that look in....

Lots of good things with this map. It'll most assuredly change. We want this to become more common on ensuing runs. It won't be there every run, but this is ideal. Ridge on the Pac Coast. NAO. Active northern stream. GOM open for business. Confluence here. Is it right? IDK. Lots of mirages of late, so we will wait until we see the whites of their eyes.

Back in the day, we used to have a saying that we wanted everything headed to Cuba in the LR, and then let it work its way back. That a worked for us for a while...then it actually starting snowing on the Gulf Coast!!!!

Post 300...looks like the GFS is gonna go for it again on this run. What we are also looking for is these types of runs to show up more often, ie where everything phases. While we have the NAO, it "should" slow everything down and make that more possible. I think the AO is still negative or forecast to do so, right? If so, those are two really good indicators for storms east of the MS. Well, that is enough from me for one run. Let's see if other modeling follows suit. Again, I know we don't talk a lot bout SE TN...but these tracks are decent for you all down that way and have been for several runs.

Essentially, we want to see a phase to our southeast. This weekend's storm moved well west of initial modeling. What I "think" we are seeing is the cold progressively pushing the storm track southeast. The cutter to start the pattern makes sense. We have seen that like 1,000x. I don't want to fight a suppressed system. Let's play ball with an amped system and see what we get.

The 12z EURO AIFS wasn't a bad run. I have been sitting on that nugget for a bit, just to see if it was supported by other runs. Nice couple of sliders. I think what we are seeing is modeling trending north with the base of the trough. That allows for the GOM/STJ to open up shop. What was in Key West a few days ago is now sliding across the Mid-South, and that makes much more sense. Time will tell if true or not.