Carvers Gap

Through 48, the CMC is pushing those isotherms just a hair north of where they were at 0z. That would likely mean it may scoot slightly north of 0z. We'll see.

12z CMC looks very similar to 0z so far through 30. Might jog a hair south over the eastern areas.

Kuchera....boom.

12z GFS "appears" to be set to also take a slightly more suppressed path just using isotherms early in the run as evidence.

12z NAM, ICON, and RGEM look good for E TN peeps. Two of those are at range, so take with some grains of salt.

WPC graphic(just runs through day 3...have to wait or E TN graphics as we are day 4):

Still a pretty decent signal for overrunning between the 20th-25th. Honking pretty good. Cold stops at the Apps with it being seeded from Montana. We have seen that setup many times during the past decade. For western areas of the forum, that has been money. If the cold is strong enough, it can reach all of the way to the Apps - periods of ice, zr, rain, snow over a 2-3 day timeframe. Something to keep an eye on.....

Member 37 seems about right.

That streamer put some school systems out this morning! We used to call it the Twilight Zone when driving through odd snow bands on I-26 in Gray.

Some big hitters in there.

My guess is this locks in between 12z this afternoon and 0z tonight. The last big jumps in would likely be at 0z tonight, but that is just a guess. Generally, I still look at ensembles for amounts and watch the deterministic runs for trends from this point forward.

Jury is still out on whether this is will be a true slider. MRX called it a Miller A, but there are still some really big differences downstream over the NE corridor. It may slide off the coast before it gets to the big cities. I would tend to say it is super similar to the 96-96 storm in terms of track. Kind of a slider but some Miller A characteristics since it may well try to turn the corner a bit. How NE TN fairs will depend on how much it turns the corner and backs the flow. The rain shadow is the issue for NE TN peeps right now. The 6z Euro was much better in that respect(more NE TN snow) as was the 6z GEFS. The 6z EPS is still running(out to 48). It is interesting to see the RGEM with an aggressive precip field. That might imply some mixing in the eastern valley if extrapolated, but it is at range and prob too amped. It is very similar to the 0z CMC in placement of the precip. MRX has a great snow graphic(posted above). I generally agree with that. I think NE TN has a decent chance to get over 4" of snow as the wrap around will help here w/ better ratios at that point. 3-6" for the eastern valley seems reasonable. Points westward may be higher. The angle of this into the forum area is going to be important. Still, even at this late time, the phase is not being modeled consistently. Numbers could be higher or lower depending on how that works out. The cold is in place, and the ground very cold. For E TN, this looks like this hits at night or as the sun sets Friday. Friday storms tend to be the norm of late. It is a weird deal that many great storms have arrived on the weekend, but it is kinda true.

We are also at the point where we can start watching the RGEM which looks aggressive.

6z Euro expanded its snow map. The 6z GFS shrunk it. But the are pretty close at this point.

Look at that source region....18z GEFS.

Yesterday, deterministic runs found a cold shot late in the run. The 12z EPS and GEPS are frigid late in their runs. The 18z GEFS is now leaning in that direction.

Yeah, we need less of those members and not more! The GFS is on the northwest side of the cone of probabilities. Honestly, if we can just get a blend of the Euro and GFS...should be good. I'd like to place my order now. LOL.

Not sure this is the right thread? The 18z GFS agains tries to build a glacier over the forum area.

E TN peeps, do not despair. The 18z GEFS is full of good trends, especially the clown map.

The 18z GFS was headed to glory...and then lost itself mid run. I doubt that happens in reality. Interestingly, it is an inland runner and not a coastal. As long as it doesn't continue to jog northwest during future runs, that is a good development for E TN.

To clarify....looks good to 102, then warm nose again for E TN. Overall, really good trends.

18z GFS should be good....

18z ICON is starting to catch on to this being a very powerful storm. Perfect track for a big storm...cuts inside of Hatteras. Ya'll know my "inside of Hatteras" rule.

The 18z NAM just looks like it is ready to go. Hey, I know it's the NAM, but at least we have a storm in range of the NAM!!!!....after tracking this pattern for a month.

Snow showers in KPT.