Carvers Gap

AIFS for Sunday....trend for mid week.

What is crazy is that if we manage to bridge three weeks in Feb(weeks 1-3) with even normal temps(instead of AN temps), we might be able to string together a pretty stretch of winter that lasts into March. I do agree, however, with those saying this might snap to spring at some point. That said, this winter has been troublesome since I first started looking at it over the summer, and said as much. It is no less troublesome now!!! I like these types of patterns BTW - tough! That smaller bank of cold analogs has had a say. I really want this winter to have some 14-15 in it...not sure that it will, but I'd like to see it. We have things working for us right now that we normally do not. Mainly, there is a lot of cold over NA and stays that way. I kind of thought next week might be it....I am not so sure now. The MA has a good post of modeling correcting the trough eastward in the LR. The EPO is possibly positioning itself to be the main driver for this winter. A good EPO pattern during February is often money. We aren't there yet, but let's see if we can steal a month.

@Daniel Boone, this might be one of those years where we need some SER to fight these wicked strong cold fronts. Complete opposite of recent winters.

Check out the 500 pattern at 360. Then check out what is underneath. This is supposed to be the warmup. Again, I would caution that the EPS is handling things differently than the GFS/GEFS. The GEFS still has very cold temps in Canada.

The one thing I am noticing is that even when ridges roll through in the d10-15, the source region is so cold that any trough(caused by a cutter) injects bitterly cold air into the eastern US. That seeds the next storm. It is a pattern where we could potentially have slightly AN temps(really warm days and really cold days...not in between), but be a wintry pattern. There are still below zero temps in the Ohio Valley after storms cut. Maybe the key @BNAwxis that source regions are actually improving as the month closes.

Sorry for the flurry of non-storm related posts, but the striking thing that I am seeing is the eastern Pac has a ridge over it. That sure seems like the PDO may be about to help. IMHO, it trumps all cards. Maybe that transition is already occurring as evidenced by the persistent EPO ridge. I doubt modeling is taking that into account yet.

JB had a good article(unrelated to what I posted above) about the MJO starting to collapse by d15. That would be huge as that means it would collapse as the MJO is rotating through the warm phases. Me talking now...I am not totally sure, but background warm phases are not necessarily antagonistic to snow here. I think we see some ridges roll through. The ensembles are warming back to normal by the last three days of the run...but a red flag to me when look at LR models is if the operatationals are totally the opposite. Normally, we see the opposite it seems. We are anticipating cold due to cold ensembles. However, the operationals never really cool down - red flag. Maybe we can steal some cold in February. If not, the analogs for this winter really point to a cold(maybe very cold March). As for severe, and others have mentioned it. It would not surprise me at all. With such extremes in air masses along w/ changing wavelenghts, it would not surprise me. Any SER is gonna be trouble.

The short range is giving me a headache. LOL. So, here is some fun stuff. Check this out for the end of the month. The first image is a single, day image of Jan 31. Look at the CFSv2 for Feb1-8th at 12z. That is uncanny. I am coming close to using the AIFS as my main LR tool. It has been stellar this season at picking out cold in the LR. Why do I show these? Well, the Weeklies have the trough in the West! Now, there are all kinds of conflicting teleconnections in these images. Cold Alaska w/ a weak PNA or EPO. It looks like Greenland is helping out some. Maybe the strat is starting to wreck havoc on a warmup for a change! We'll see. I do think we see warmer temps than January, but there is no where to go but up! So easy call. Inject some cold into February wavelengths, and we might not be done. If these are wrong, I am getting my lettuce out early! LOL. PDO wildcard in play.

I keep thinking it is going to warm-up. Both the 12z Euro and Euro AIFS are frigid w/ some minor warm-ups. MAJOR differences in how the MJO is being handled between the Euro and American modeling. If the Euro wins this battle, it is very possible this winter isn't even close to being done. If American modeling is done, gonna be mowing by the end of February...then the cold comes back! If we only get a minor warm-up, the 95-96 analog might be the ticket.

I want "Chattanooga snow Jeff" back!

Super similar to NE TN. We aren't in a snow drought here, but many areas are in a "big storm" drought. NE TN normally cashes into a big storm from time to time. I think it is La Nina weather patterns - drought city there and here.

So, I have finally learned how to post Tweets on this forum. It won't work with the prefix "x". Just take the address and put it on Word or Notepad. Take the "x" out and replace it with "twitter." Then, you get this...

I mean if you simply say, "Which one makes the most sense given the incoming cold?" It is an easy choice. Two model runs make no sense given climatology. Charleston snow once in a blue moon? Sure. North Florida snowstorms? Man, I won't be able to resist marching myself into the climate forum(please don't start discussing that here!!!!). E TN could sneak into this. That said, these systems next week definitely have a lot of aspects of a Carolina snowstorm. I remember seeing the thousands of posts when we were in the SE forum about their storms. This fits about all of the criteria need for snow for them. But....every once in a while the E TN posters would reel one in w/ a northwest jog. It was pretty glorious. Those folks haven't had snow in a while, so I will go easy. But I am still hoping maybe we can reel one in across the Apps. I think a big storm is possible. IF, we are looking at the Weds-Fri fram right now...remember modeling loses systems often between d5-8.

The 12z GFS ensemble is a more southerly CMC track. The 12z GFS has gotta be tossed. I'll toss it. The Euro just as ridiculous. The Canadian looks much more realistic.

I don't think the Euro or GFS is right at 12z. Remember the Key West snow showers? It didn't even verify to anything close to that. i do think the best chances are between Tuesday and Friday. Friday is still 8 days away. This ain't even close to being worked out.

Let's just take a minute and admire how different these maps are. The first is the GFS. The second is the Canadian. Left thumbnail is 12z and the right is 0z for the CMC. 12z and 6z, respectively, for the GFS. The CMC is composed of two systems. I can't even remember what the GFS was going. Both have a first system thump, and then we diverge. Might be just a little bit of feedback on the CMC. The CMC does have a bias towards feedback over South Carolina. Take a minute and notice the differences over the NE from run to run and between models.

That first system is such a wonky set-up. My expectations are super low. But models are spitting out some decent numbers. It is trending into a bigger storm in the NE which I think is having massive upstream impacts for the next system. How that first system gets handled is making for some wild variations for mid-week. 12z suite is the pro wrestling at this point - anything goes. Models are throwing chairs, jumping off the top rope, and tagging out.

The GFS can score coups, but if the Euro is still suppressed....I am gonna have to toss the GFS. It was waaaaay to far north with last weekend's system, and didn't correct until late. If the CMC jogs 150 miles northwest, E TN gets thumped. I have no idea what the trend is at this point. HOWEVER, the ensembles (prior to 12z...haven't looked at those yet) are pretty much the CMC/ICON tracks.

The difference at the surface is central Georgia or Chicago. I think the GFS is having some NAM problems.

The 12z RGEM implies that middle TN could get thumped on Sunday with 3-4". I know this is a bit late to be discussing it(and we are watching mid-week), but the RGEM was not benign nor is the GFS.

@tnweathernut and NE TN/SW VA peeps. I know tnweathernut has mentioned this Sunday as sneaky. The GFS has some decent totals for Sunday as that system on the 12z GFS is stronger off the NE coast after it leaves here. That implies that this "might" be a late bloomer on modeling. Are we looking at mountain amounts which are smoothed into valleys or is this a legit 3-5" opportunity at the last minute? For folks not in the mountains, often modeling will make it look like TRI is going to get thumped when in reality it is mountain totals bleeding into other grids due to smoothing. In reality(from a bird's eye view from directly above), often the rain snow line can be quite abrupt in reality.

IMHO, right where E TN folks want it at this range. Nice trend.

This is how much the GFS is on an island. The 0z Euro AIFS doesn't even have the system above Mobile, Alabama. There are really two impulses. There is one on the 21st-ish and next on the 24th-ish. Modeling is probably struggling with which one to amp. But on the AIFS, neither are there. Again, looking at ensembles, we are going to need to see those ensembles begin to move today or this one is gonna be tough to reel in. Overall in the long range, it looks like we take a TBD big-time warm-up after next week. The GEFS ext MJO ends winter for all but the northern most latitudes of the forum and higher elevations. The Euro Weeklies race across warm phases and then stall before hitting phase 8 of the MJO. We want the Euro to be right. Otherwise, things are going to be blooming by the end of February. When we start talking about the MJO, usually that means we are about to see extended warmth. I suspect that seasonal analogs(almost all are warm for Feb) are correct in February being much AN with March cooling back off. Chance for a little late season magic if analogs are correct for March. So far, the 2018 analog has been money. I had it as one of two analogs for my winter forecast. 2017 was the other. The one fly(a good one) in the ointment for February could be the PDO flipping. If it flips, it will try to trump the MJO and has the ability to do so.

Ensembles barely graze areas north of 40. There is almost zero support for frozen precip north of 40 right now on ensembles. It is possible that operationals are leading the way. I certainly can see that is possible. But the the ensemble mean is waaaaaay down there. I would really caution using the GFS right now. It was woefully wrong with the last system, and is on a total island with this next one. I hope it is right. That means I get to see winter one last time before a possible much AN February.

For NE TN peeps we are going to have to root for this to move northwest a bunch. Ensembles have this buried (I mean absolutely buried). I think the 0z GFS run was a one-off. I think the 6z GFS is still probably too amped. The GFS has a little bit of NAM in it at range. Everything is too amplified. I would be really surprised if this is a forum wide event. I think this is going to be a SE TN event, non-event, or E TN event in that order. It is that suppressed on ensembles.