Carvers Gap

Just looking at this afternoon's Euro Weeklies.... 1. Still looks like a warm up mid month followed by winter after Thanksgiving. December 1-15 looks like a good window for cold. 2. Fly in the ointment is a little belly ridge over Texas which might try to shunt systems to our north. 3. The control run is very aggressive. 4. The Euro will often(sometimes woefully) under model eastern cold at range. It is shoulder season, and it could still be badly wrong. 5. American LR ext modeling (Euro Weeklies equivalent) will be cold on some runs for December and at other times....hook a mid continent trough into the NAO. We really might not want a -NAO in December. Still too early in the season to be a true playa IMHO. 6. Overall, I still like a cold start to December which is followed by a warm-up. That fits the pattern of recent winters. Cosgrove's "late start" to winter idea is supported by this morning's GFS seasonals. I still think it gets cold early, warms, and then is a crap shoot. I tend to favor a return to winter after mid-late January. That second cold shot often favors western areas of our forum. This year, due to the QBO, I think the cold manages to get to the spine of the Apps.

Haha. Wow. Yeah, that definitely looks like a default mode on the model. Nearly identical. It may be right, and we are due El Nino conditions...but that looks identical to a level that if two middle schoolers both had that on a test which required prediction, they would be busted for cheating. Good catch.

Computer modeling is so good right now that I almost feel more confident in the weeklies 500 pattern between weeks 3-4 than the detailed look at d7-12 on operationals. Long wave pattern modeling has gotten really good. But that said, I have been burned more times than I can count by a shoulder season 500 look at range! BTW, I don't want people thinking I am walking things back this morning. I have only looked at 6z operationals...no seasonals or LR ext stuff. LOL

WAAAY out there, the new CANSIPS also has next summer at norma tempsl which implies an El Nino ENSO setup. MA mentioned a Modokai. I honestly didn't look at SSTs, but the NA weather pattern looks like it. Fall "should" be cool next year if so. I would call for a backloaded winter next winter as well if so....way too early to tell. Cansips evidently put out the exact same map (from last year at this time) for next fall. Kind of an embarrassed for that group. Don't think so? Go look at the post in the MA forum with the maps side by side. Completely disregard the above.

New CANSIPS is out on Tropical Tidbits(courtesy MA forum): https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=namer&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2025110100&fh=2 Some decent changes. Also, check out the MA forum for Webbers comments about winter. Good stuff in their winter forum.

Absolutely take it. We are gonna get a thaw which lasts 3-4 weeks. Anytime we can grab 8 weeks of winter, we take it...even during our best winters IMBY. Plateau folks have longer stretches!

These are day-to-day runs, but we take this, right?

If there is one model to sniff out amplification at range, it is the GFS. The Euro won't see it until it late. The GFS nailed the amplification which occurred yesterday. Things look increasingly interesting after next weekend. Sure seems like models are missing on daytime highs(actual reality is colder). It could just be we are hitting our highs at midnight? The thing I really like right now is that we are not going to have erase lots of AN temps over NA. The LR sure has modeling trying to amplify a trough over the eastern half of the US by the end of November, and that trough would bring actual winter temps with it.

It could change, but the Weeklies are depicting the hammer(winter) to come down early. We are going to have a mid-month warmup, but LR ext modeling is showing a very cold pattern to open December. That could EASILY change as modeling during shoulder season is beyond undependable. Looks like another cold rainer on tap for early next week, and then the warm-up but with stout cold fronts embedded. November could go below normal even with the warm-up. The trick w/ these La Nina quick start winters is this...will winter come back after the inevitable mid-winter thaw? Lastly, and I have stated this often....winter often likes to show up where it has been rainy during the fall. It is one of two JB rules which I like. The other is the late hurricane season correlating to an early start to winter. Right now, both of those are in our favor. I actually wrote a post last week where I was gonna flip to a later arriving winter. Cosgrove has me shook! I posted and then deleted it moments later. I decided to roll with my original ideas, and the Weeklies literally flipped cold about 5mins after I posted it! Thankfully, I stayed with my original ideas. Now, if I were to tweak the winter ideas, I might add a colder period at the end of Jan to begin Feb. Weeks 1-3 of December cold, and week4 and weeks 1-2 of Feb cold. That kind of seems like that is the play right now. It fits those older QBO analogs. If we can get any help from the PDO region, could be even better. And ya'll know I don't do AI for my content...just too many typos. If you ever see a post with no typos, then you know the singularity got me.

Some good graphics in this....DT's prelim ideas. I am really just posting this for discussion. You all can decide for yourself if it has merit. The 13-14 analog looks strong. You all that brought that idea to the forum...strong work. https://wxrisk.com/wp-content/uploads/_pda/2025/10/winter2526A.pdf

The 12z GFS is cold...really cold.

Heavy mist and rain is falling here. Wind chill is 41. Nasty, rainy, cold day. My kind of weather. Feels like one of those rainers in December. It almost surely has to be snowing in the mountains.

I am looking forward to fall back...model runs start coming out "earlier."

The first high elevations snows(light) are expected in the Smokies overnight. I wonder you will see some, John?

The closer we are getting to winter(and I can actually see some weeklies runs), the more I think we are playing with house money at some point.

I really like JB's rule that winter weather (snow, cold, ice) tends to show up where it rained a lot during fall. Just file that away.

The PDO is a decadal trend...haha. Sorry, had to. But.......we should be coming out of that crap trend sooner than later. 17-18 seems like when this current winter pattern began. Cold starts to winters, and meh ends to winter w/ the middle of winter being a crapshoot. Some extreme cold shots have been embedded. That PDO cycle is coupled with the La Nina which is normal I think. With the La Nina cooling things off a bit(nature's thermostat), the next weak(and it must be weak) El Nino should offer decent chances. The NAO appears to be trending more negative during winter after decades of dormancy. The AMO should flip within the next 3 years - debate as to its "realness" allowed.

Check out the 18z GFS at 156z.

I definitely like a cold November, but w/ La Nina's of late....that rule hasn't played as fairly as year past. Probably has something to do w/ less see ice over the Arctic region. As for Nov, I think we start cold, warm-up during the middle 10 days, and cool comes back(edit...that originally made zero sense). We may be able to get a normal month in terms of temps with that setup. Since months are kind of arbitrary in the grand scheme of things(30 day increments), I think if we can get a pattern of strong amplification w/ some troughs coming through...we should be good. Amplified patterns (as long as they aren't too crazy) work for much of the forum area. I just don't want the motherload of cold during November. That was kind of my main thought. I want a flip strongly to cold to begin winter. I think that is our best chance this winter(December). Then, we hope it returns. It is worth noting Cosgrove strongly favors a backloaded winter and patience. I tend to see that as a Nino pattern, but he has some sound thinking, and really supports his ideas. Regarding this winter, I think for coastal areas, La Nina is no bueno. West of the Apps, we can score and score bigly. Kind of feast or famine like that Tennessee defense. I think we see chances at winter. Right around November 4th...strong signs of a big coastal.

Starting to see AN heights rebound for November on modeling. That is a GOOD thing. We do not want the flip to be now. Looks like a 1-2 week bout of BN heights, and then a bounce back to warm. Euro Weeklies, and to some extent the CFSv2, are showing a stout western ridge (like into the Arctic Circle) along the West Coast by the second week of December. That fits climatology. And it looks frigid. The Weeklies actually have BN temps for that week at the surface, and that almost never happens at this range. Huge grains of salt, but winter is showing its hand every so slightly on Weeklies. The good thing is that I am not having to rely on seasonal modeling...the weeklies have the first two weeks of winter in range.

Thursday night Euro is just nastiness - cold rain, likely mountain mix w/ a low parading across the Gulf states. My kind of weather, but it isn't for everyone.

Just looking at Apple Wx on my phone, I still expect to see temps in the upper 70s w/ sun. Right now, all I see are 50s and rain chances. This looks locked in for a bit. Should get a brief respite of warm during mid Nov before getting cold again. Long range pattern really does not want to budge.

I am definitely interested in the time frame around Halloween. The 12z GFS gets VERY close to something good for NE TN. The CMC isn't that much different. The Euro never entrains southern energy.... I am going to guess that has an inland runner.

Ensembles are picking up a fairly strong amplification on October 30th.....GEFS and EPS both. It is a pretty strong signal.

Second morning in a row with heavy frost. Yesterday morning was much colder than expected. Today was cold but was expected.