Carvers Gap
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Everything posted by Carvers Gap
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I'll take 20 days in phase 8 and then a loop back around. But we will gladly take the CFS version which gives us 28 days in cold phases. The BOMM and EMON(Euro ext) from two days basically stall the MJO in cold phases from now to the end of their runs in the middle of March.
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The 12z GFS, as putrid as it was, implies several nickel and dime events after the 19th.
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And lots of snow. Someone feel free to post the kuchera.
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I'm not sharing a foxhole with the CMC, but that was impressive. It is one of MANY options, but that shows at least one of the options on the table. For the record, the CMC was northwest of its 0z run.
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97mph wind gusts off the coast of Maine on that run.
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45 degree BN temperature anomalies.
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The CMC can keep its -20 real feels.
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I don't even want to know how much cold is behind something like that.
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The 12z CMC has a 959 low sitting off Portland, Maine.
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The 12z CMC is a freaking monster.
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The 12z CMC is a big dog. Trailing energy caught it. Have I said how much I hate tracking "trailing energy" storms. This is why.
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Yeah, hold up. The 12z CMC somehow found the storm. LOL.
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We are gonna try to send this one to Havana. Not good trends at 12z.
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The 12z CMC has 1060 high sitting over this at 114.
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The ICON at 12z was very suppressed.
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And that friends is why trailing energy systems are the worst to track. That GFS cutter the other day is almost laughable now. Ensembles overnight were very suppressed compared to their deterministic counterparts. This looks like it may well swing well below us and try to come up the coast in reality. Where is the SER when we need it?
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12z GFS is going to try to dig a bit more out West at 99h. It might just be slower, but this solution may be a bit different than 6z,
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6z EURO AIFS sent it to Cuba.
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Trend we are fighting over the last 6 hours is suppression.
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I should add that depending on a trailing system is often a component in many of the fails of bigger storms I have tracked. Trailers tend to verify east of what is modeled in my experience.
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I think cold is a given. Within 36 hours, this should be a lot clearer regarding the storm. The 12z AIFS had this yesterday….but there are more pieces of energy after the first storm.
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Usually when we score in E TN, it’s not waiting on redevelopment. That is fools gold all too often. But we can score with a ULL or inverted trough. The trailer is the key, and I hate tracking storms with trailing energy which is the driver.
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The CMC is maybe what I would call a clean pass. The Euro and GFS depend on trailing energy to get totals. The Euro uses trailing energy from the south. The GFS is using a ULL from northwest flo. Very complicated setup and some of those totals are reached in vastly different ways. It makes it look like a Miller A, but only one model has it. The rest requires redevelopment over E TN.
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The 18z GFS represents a suppressed path due to the strong cold front. Now, I don't know this for sure....but this is February and not January. If that system comes up the coast and doesn't slide OTS....it should track back to the northwest. I really don't like the trailing energy piece. I am not even sure if that is real - 50/50 either way on that one. For now, the energy arrives too late and we see simply light snow. If that energy speeds up and catches the front runner, it could change dramatically. Either way, models have gone from one cutter after another to a very suppressed solution.
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The 12z CMC shows the trailing energy scenario really well. BTW, if you all want to put some severe wx stuff in here, have at it. I haven't followed the Saturday stuff. I live in NE TN, and we get a lot less severe weather up here. Now, we do get some...but just less. How bad does the severe threat look for Saturday?
