Carvers Gap

The 12z kuchera for the GFS is no joke, folks. I still think this Sunday system is causing some problems or maybe is a symptom of the problem. How the jet buckles is going to be key. The CMC, as Holston noted, went with wave 1 after Sunday. The GFS held back and caught the second wave. Yeah, sounds like surfing...sorry.

Went driving with my friend Bill C from Powell (@PowellVolzmight have known Bill). Bill passed away recently. Bill had a yellow jeep. We drove out in the middle of that storm. It probably wasn't the wisest of moves, but I was in college and didn't know better. That said, the wind and the snow was something like you would see at higher elevations. The snow was almost like a mist.

Connect that with a strong Arctic front, and we get the 12z suite so far.

So, I think we can say the strong Arctic front means business. How the STJ(subtropical jet) interacts with it is still....up in the air. Sorry, really bad Dad joke on my part, @*Flash*. I couldn't resist.

Yeah, man. In the words of the great Ted Lasso, "Barbecue sauce."

GFS and CMC both with significant winter storms.

Wow at the Canadian, Holston. I hadn't even looked. Man, what a storm.

The GFS...I feel like I just watched 40 model runs of that scenario. LOL

MJO stuff.... Euro keeps winter rolling right into February with a week long break at the end of January. Hopefully, the Euro is better with the MJO. I can't remember which. We just need a quick rotation through the warm phases like it shows. The GEFS ext pretty much ends winter at the end of January.....high amplitude 6 members! Yikes. LOL. But if they can swing into 8 at high amplitude, the end of Feb could be interesting.

It is sneaky for E TN! The 12z ICON has it.

They knew pretty well in advance. I don't think many believed the ones who knew. Weather modeling nailed that thing from 7-8 days out. I think it was TWC that began to cover it early. I remember a news station in Knoxville saying that something was brewing. It was kind of the public awakening to computer weather modeling. It was a reasonably simply phase along an Arctic front. Unfortunately, I now watch every Arctic front for this very phenomena. That storm is one that sits alone on a shelf, and likely will never be joined in its classification. 70mph wind gusts in the valleys with wind driven snow. It hit on a weekend which is an interesting coincidence for many great storms.

The Weather Channel was on it well in advance. They were my go-to source for weather back in the day. I always knew what time they would talk about the extended forecast in depth. I would stop what I was doing and hustle to watch it. I also read afternoon discussions by the National Weather Service. But it all started with my grandparent's weather radio even before the TWC. (We have at least two news weather mets on our own forum who probably worked those '93 shifts....maybe more)

Really what keeps this from going out to sea is the phase. No phase. No storm for all but the most southern parts of the forum. It is simple as that. The system in front (Sunday) is super wonky, and it is messing with the dynamics of the system (the bigger one which is off and on modeling) that follows. Spacing between the two storms and the strength of that first system matters. Right now, that first system is so wonky, I am not even sure what we actually want it to do! There is a lee side low that forms. I haven't looked closely, but if the strength of that lee side might be influencing what follows. The second system...the phase doesn't look overly complicated like it did with last weekend's system. However, the timing of the waves, amplitude and wavelength frequency are huge. That first system is causing changes in that.

That is understood at this range.

If you want a big storm, you want the polar jet to feed energy in.

Triple phased? The above by Holston looks like it. Something to keep an eye on as we go forward. It pulls the polar jet in….

Good trends overnight to have ensembles beginning to creep on board, and have 2/3 of globals show a decent storm. Still a long ways to go. We are kind of in that space where models have trouble with storms(lose them). If they get this one back early, and lock-in...good sign.

Was just going to say that the 0z Euro ensembles are honking for pretty much all of E TN.

6z GFS and CMC are nice tracks. I need to check the ensembles, but nice tracks for sure.

Ensembles have lots of members south of the TN border and into the Carolinas. Probably where we want it at this range, but ensemble support for a low road system is there. I suspect it trends north, but that gives me pause. Let's see if the Euro holds that 12z line for a few runs. I don't think there is a big block to keep it south...just the cold air press. I highly doubt that cold air is modeled correctly yet. Now, if by tomorrow evening we are still talking about suppressed ensembles...

Looks like the 12z GEPS and GEFS have an overrunning event to our SE, but there is a shadow of the storm along the Apps. Amped solutions would get washed out at this range.

Right where we want it on the GFS.

Now, we are cooking with gas. 12z Euro was a beaut. If we can get it to lock-in, that is a good thing. It nailed this last storm.

All of the ensembles are picking up this system. Might take 4-5 model suites, but somebody in the SE is probably not done with winter just yet.

It could end up in Indiana before the trend is over. I think probably suppression is our greatest enemy for this one, but seeing a system jog from Jacksonville to Columbia(SC) to Knoxville. Those are BIG moves in three consecutive runs. If there is no block, it could easily cut.