Carvers Gap
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The last time that happened...the GFS lost that battle pretty badly (early January....looks almost identical to this battle). This go around... I am not overly confident with either model right now. The BOMM has the MJO rapidly cycling through the MJO plots(like twice!). The Euro and American MJO plots are in a little bit better agreement this morning. But....the actualy surface maps look like the BOMM! No really pattern locks in. Just lots of anomalous cold and anomalous warmth cycling through every few days. It looks rainy with the SER pushing north with precip, and then cold/dry air masses forcing it south. Wash, rinse, repeat. We need for their wires to get crossed, and stir up a storm. Again, I do think that Feb 20 could possible be the demarcation line where we get one last shot of cold air which lasts into a yet to be determined time in March.
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To me, it looks like Feb10-20 is a transition back to colder weather. Then we see cold for a undetermined amount of time for the last ten days of the month. This will potentially be our third cold shot this winter. The MJO is driving the bus right now.
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Just looking at the CPC MJO plots this morning, the GMON and GFS have caved to the Euro products. The EMON has the MJO into phase 8 for the last 10 days of the month. American plots get into phase 7 by mid month. 7 isn't great, but at least it isn't 6. The EMON has us into 7 on Feb 6 which is about ten days faster than American modeling. American modeling has sped up, and likely will speed up quite a bit more. So far.....the lower amplitude Euro runs are verifying.
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The time of moderation is at hand. I gotta be honest...I don't mind a bit of a warm-up. Is this the end of winter? I don't know. I tend to think this is a warm-up that lasts until about February 9th. What happens after that Feb 9th cold front will tell the tale. There is a chance of a standing wave SER - sucks if you don't know what is and you like winter. That is also flood city. The 12z EPS/GEPS ensembles bring the cold back. I tend to think of this warm-up as similar to what we saw after Christmas. It will be intense, and a cool down follows...then followed by very cold temps compared to normal. I think winter has shown its hand in that regard. As for the MJO, I tend to like the BOMM. It is quicker and looks like modeling which doesn't lock-in cold, but really doesn't lock-in warmth either. If you had to choose a set of months which are by far the hardest to forecast(hobby forecasting not the real kind), February-April is a brute. "May the odds be forever in your favor" kind of stuff. I still like the idea of a very cold start to March. I feel a bit more confident in saying Feb 20 - March 14 will be BN in terms of temps. Pretty good signal for strong cold then. The second and third weeks of Feb seem like a back-and-forth pattern which is cold and then warm-up-and-rain. We will probably need a tandem set of tty systems to get snow during that time frame, ie. the first system sets the boundary, and the second system runs it.
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The EB wipe us out in Kingsport. All rain.
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The 0z GFS and NAM have that sneaky system Monday. The RGEM doesn't have it at all. Something to watch. Nothing big, but interesting for those north of 40.
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The 18z GFS is threatening w Tenn w/ an overrunning ice storm. Overall, no big changes to yesterday's ideas. Been doing the swim meet thing this weekend, guys. See you Monday!
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Overnight and early morning ensembles depict the GEPS/EPS vs the GEFS after Feb7th. The first two ensembles take us below normal yet again. The second gets there, but only marginally. Worlds apart at 500. Their MJO plots are also worlds apart.
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I'm afraid to look at mine.
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I think the sun matters a lot. In fact, it might the driver of Earth's weather over millennia. I just don't think we have a lot of research about how it impacts weather. It might be worth its own thread. I could write several posts on the topic. Briefly, I would say that increased solar activity tends to put a ridge over the eastern US.
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Pretty big model war between the EPS/GEPS vs GEFS at 12z for d10-15. Last time the GEFS didn't do so well. However, what we are seeing is for sure differences in how the MJO is modeled both in amplitude and speed. It could be a thaw or a pattern change. I like the EPS right now as it tends to do a little better once we hit mid-winter. Total crapshoot though until the MJO gets sorted out. But I do know this 100%...when we start talking about the MJO, it is about to get really warm for an undetermined amount of time. For now, I think we see a warm-up from Jan 28 to Feb 7th. It could be longer. Outside chance it could be shorter. The SER is going to flex. We just don't want it to become a standing wave.
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The 12z GEPS and EPS are not warm in the long range. In fact, the EPS has a full blown trough progressing eastward from the nation's mid-section between d10-15. The AIFS does get my attention, but it can swing wildly at that range....sometimes it can lead the way. Just really watching to see if this is a thaw or a new pattern w/ a big SER. I lean temporary thaw, but am not totally sold on that yet. All it will take is one big cutter right along the MS River, and that cold air will refill eastern NA. Tricky business. Also, it is a good rule of thumb(and I forget it often) that sever cold over NA does wonky stuff to modeling.
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Snow showers in NE TN. Models had this. It was completely ignored.
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The deck is also stacked a bit differently this year. NA is much colder than recent winters. We likely don’t have to rebuild the could source in Canada after the warmup. Cold sources matter.
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The American modeling handles the MJO very differently. The Euro tends to underestimate amplitude. American modeling has a bias for stalling in 6 IMHO. It is going to warm up. We just need it to hustle! Most good winters have warm MJO rotations. We called them thaws. Now, we know some of the science. The MJO can also end winter. Deterministic modeling can just about see to the second week of Feb. We will know the verdicts to our questions soon.
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Convection in the MC is a pain in the neck! LOL. I think we get one more meaningful rotation through cold phases. I think the worst of winter’s cold is behind us. That said, December featured that 11-12 day warmup. We may see something similar at the end of this month and early Feb. But yeah, if we want the warmup to be a thaw and not a toasty Feb….the MJO has to get out of 6! To clarify…worst of cold behind us. But I have no idea about snow. Feb can deliver when it is on!
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I "think" we are looking at potentially very cold temps during the second week of Feb. The AIFS at 12z hinted at this. It is there about 2/3 of the time. @Daniel Boone, I suggested(then deleted quickly!) that we start a February thread. I thought I was in the January thread. No, I was actually IN the new February thread asking for the February thread to be created!!!! LOL!!!!
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I like that meme, man. I am gonna use that for personal use.
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Speaking of the "fun begins at 50," do I dare admit that I thought I was in the January thread when I recommended a February thread get started? ...and I was actually posting in the new February thread.
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I think the warmth we are seeing (to end the month and begin Feb) is the model reaction to the MJO passing through phases 4-6. So far(famous last words), that looks like a pretty fast pass. I was a bit perplexed that it hadn't shown up. At one point there were below zero temps in the middle of my warm-up! It is always possible that winter doesn't return, but I am rolling with '96 which had a warm-up in between cold shots. Right now is halftime - I think. A January thaw is almost always a staple of winter, and quite honestly, I could use one. The treadmill sucks for running! I don't do single digit wind chills. I am older and smarter... As one in my family likes to state, "The fun begins at fifty." Somehow, I don't think that is a compliment!!!
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Here is the time frame that I continue to watch along with the timeframe around roughly 1/30(give or take a few days). The real question in my mind is where does the stationary front set up shop? Is it the Cumberland Plateau or the Apps? I have asked that question already once this winter. Turns out, it was Pensacola! This time frame sits just beyond deterministic and global ensemble range. Gonna have to slog through a ridge or two to get to potentially this - beware!
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The 18z GFS just hammered the Southeast(portions of TN included).
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The 18z GFS is interesting at d10.
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Mississippi is always a tough sell for snow, but I admittedly don't watch MS much during winter. If the cold is deep enough though, it could. Northern MS is in the game in my book if overrunning persists on modeling.
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Just looking across deterministic runs d10-15, there is decent agreement of very cold air invading the Lower 48 again. To me this looks like a front range(of the Rockies) or Plains initial shot. Then the real question that arises is how far to the east does it spread. All three globals have cold racing down the Canadian Prairies at the end of their runs. The Euro manages to get the cold all the way to the Gulf Coast yet again. The Euro has a fairly extreme blocking scheme over Alaska. That is the mechanism that was missing yesterday. I still think the cold (potential)shot is just at the fingertips of deterministic runs and we will see variation for sure. I get pretty excited about cold during February. We haven't had a lot of that recently. Cold February storms will often over perform which is why they are fun.
