Carvers Gap
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Everything posted by Carvers Gap
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Light snow flurries and snow showers having been falling across TRI this morning. I believe that makes the fifth strategy month with snow in the air.
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Incredible. I am usually spared the high winds that the foothills get. I was surprised the winds here were that strong yesterday. Often, there will be wind advisories or warnings in the foothills, and it will just be breezy here. I am going to have to go back and look, but the winds yesterday may have been as bad as Helene IMBY or worse. Fortunately the ground was not soggy. I didn't see many trees down. I think the high winds from last fall purged any weaker trees and empties tries of weaker limbs.
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Wind gusts pushing 50mph here at TRI. Sustained winds are as strong as I can remember in some time.
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"A" for effort by the 6z GFS.
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18z March 9th time frame still looks interesting, and has for a while. Any system taking the low road during Feb is probably coming north.
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12z CMC(192) is trying to get interesting regarding wintry precip. The GFS and ICON do not have it...so beware.
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With the exception of about 7-10 days, I had snow continuously on the ground from say Jan 3 to yesterday (Feb 25th).
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18z GFS has great slp placement at 252. Probably the last window. As Jeff noted, things flip warm mid-month. The MJO looks like it will go to warm phases after the 15th or so. None of that is a surprise.
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Looks like overnight modeling is keying onto the March 7-8 time frame, and maybe one more shot after that. No guarantees. Looks like John has started our spring thread. Maybe we can begin spring with some snow. In like a lion.
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12z Euro is flirting with a trackable event around 300.
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We have gotten snow with almost every cold shot this winter. If we see another cold shot, I think we will see more snow.
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I will say that I can now see spring on Weeklies modeling. It looks like we flip warm around the third week of March - and now you know it will then snow knee high to a giraffe since I said that. When I call for it to get warm, it generally does the opposite. It is the one constant in my hobby skills.
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To me, the MJO looks favorable through Mid-March. Then things get murky. It could loop back into colder phase or take the tour. Either way, I think we have about three weeks left on the clock. I do think modeling is just now seeing how cold the first couple of weeks of March will be.
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I still like that timeframe right around March 7th. There isn't much showing right now, but that could change at this range.
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18z GFS. Looks to me like some light snow will fall on Friday for NE TN, SW VA, E KY, and northern Plateau. Looks like some post frontal streamers.
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Historic Tennessee Valley Cold, Snow, and Ice Events
Carvers Gap replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
I would recommend creating a separate, historical thread for severe weather. This thread was created for historic winter weather events. I have no issues at all w/ Powell's post, but a separate thread would be pretty cool, and is probably needed. -
Next system to watch looks like next Thursday into Friday.
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I browsed through overnight and early morning model runs. It certainly looks like we are about to enter a northern stream dominant pattern. What I am seeing is rain changing to snow w/ a lot of these. Higher elevation areas may just get hammered for the next 2-4 weeks. Whatever the foothills have missed this winter, they may get repaid in full during the coming weeks. Lots of northwest flow vortices.
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Yeah, it cut loose here. The 6hr loops on modeling didn't show that line. But I looked at some 1hr incremental loops, and it had a light reflection of the line that was to come through. I think Holston is on to something w/ the lee side. Original modeling (many, many runs ago) had a lee side develop and back flow over NE TN. It kind of disappeared on modeling during the last 24-48 hours. In reality, that is exactly what occurred. This was a complex system to model. I normally don't like waiting for a second thump of snow as it doesn't usually work out, but this turned out to be a pretty accurate 1-2 punch.
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Definitely. That line of snow that was moving through moved incredibly slow. Something had to be "backing it up."
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We received 2" more of snow overnight for a total of 3". Wind chills are 5F right now. The much anticipated northwest flow event actually was led off by a strong band of heavy snow. It did not disappoint IMBY. I got up this morning and watched it for a bit. This image is of the initial line of snow as it began to move through TRI earlier today. We probably ended up 3.5 total...1.5 yesterday plus the 2 overnight. I have 3" of snow right now on my usual measuring spots.
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It appears that the Euro Weeklies Control wants no part of spring. It is frigid, like ridiculously so for like five weeks. Apparently, it has drunk the MJO juice. It has been doing this for a few days. It delays spring until early April. Its 32d temp composite is ten degrees below normal for much of the forum area.
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So far, we have received about 1.5". I get a slight elevation bump where I am located.
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A second winter weather advisory has been posted for TRI tonight.
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The 12 GFS is again loaded up.
