Carvers Gap
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Everything posted by Carvers Gap
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Leaning very cold for next winter but it's early.
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Old timers call it dogwood winter…it is a real thing like thunder in the mountains.
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Just a brutal flip in temps. On the positive, I went outside and mowed while it was misting this evening. It kept down the dust and wasn't ridiculously hot. Last week was insane for April in regards to temps here. We were CRUSHING daily record highs. Now, we are gonna have freeze warning up for tomorrow night! Crazy!!!
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12z GFS 126. Interesting.
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Looking way down the line, the new seasonal Cansips has one glaring feature for DJF next winter....a MONSTER Alaskan ridge. The only reason it isn't frigid on seasonal surface maps here is a little ridge bellying into Texas. As is, the seasonal forecast is a Midwest trough w/ seasonal temps here. That "could" turn out to be a pretty cold look as we get closer. Summer looks warm. When is it not? LOL.
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I think Sugar Mountain in NC is actually still open. With the snow tonight, they may well extend into this weekend.
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The last week of March is not looking warm.
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I saw some light snow flurries this morning.
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Light snow flurries and snow showers having been falling across TRI this morning. I believe that makes the fifth strategy month with snow in the air.
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Incredible. I am usually spared the high winds that the foothills get. I was surprised the winds here were that strong yesterday. Often, there will be wind advisories or warnings in the foothills, and it will just be breezy here. I am going to have to go back and look, but the winds yesterday may have been as bad as Helene IMBY or worse. Fortunately the ground was not soggy. I didn't see many trees down. I think the high winds from last fall purged any weaker trees and empties tries of weaker limbs.
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Wind gusts pushing 50mph here at TRI. Sustained winds are as strong as I can remember in some time.
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"A" for effort by the 6z GFS.
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18z March 9th time frame still looks interesting, and has for a while. Any system taking the low road during Feb is probably coming north.
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12z CMC(192) is trying to get interesting regarding wintry precip. The GFS and ICON do not have it...so beware.
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With the exception of about 7-10 days, I had snow continuously on the ground from say Jan 3 to yesterday (Feb 25th).
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18z GFS has great slp placement at 252. Probably the last window. As Jeff noted, things flip warm mid-month. The MJO looks like it will go to warm phases after the 15th or so. None of that is a surprise.
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Looks like overnight modeling is keying onto the March 7-8 time frame, and maybe one more shot after that. No guarantees. Looks like John has started our spring thread. Maybe we can begin spring with some snow. In like a lion.
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12z Euro is flirting with a trackable event around 300.
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We have gotten snow with almost every cold shot this winter. If we see another cold shot, I think we will see more snow.
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I will say that I can now see spring on Weeklies modeling. It looks like we flip warm around the third week of March - and now you know it will then snow knee high to a giraffe since I said that. When I call for it to get warm, it generally does the opposite. It is the one constant in my hobby skills.
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To me, the MJO looks favorable through Mid-March. Then things get murky. It could loop back into colder phase or take the tour. Either way, I think we have about three weeks left on the clock. I do think modeling is just now seeing how cold the first couple of weeks of March will be.
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I still like that timeframe right around March 7th. There isn't much showing right now, but that could change at this range.
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18z GFS. Looks to me like some light snow will fall on Friday for NE TN, SW VA, E KY, and northern Plateau. Looks like some post frontal streamers.
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Historic Tennessee Valley Cold, Snow, and Ice Events
Carvers Gap replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
I would recommend creating a separate, historical thread for severe weather. This thread was created for historic winter weather events. I have no issues at all w/ Powell's post, but a separate thread would be pretty cool, and is probably needed. -
Next system to watch looks like next Thursday into Friday.
