Carvers Gap

Thanks for the posts, and great info. Agree on all points. I think I had just moved back to TN from FL(spent two years in purgatory) in 82-83. We had this crazy snow where we got like 4-5" of snow and then it rained...and washed it all away. Seems like the start to that winter was crazy cold. I remember riding through South Knoxville w/ the windows frozen up.

Back from Europe. And, yes! I got to experience THE heat wave. No A/C sucks. Great trip, though. We were in Scandanavia...and still almost hit 99 w/ normal highs of 65! Back to normal for the second half of the trip, and legit felt cold at times. Got back home, and hit another heat wave! Haha - not so much fun. Great trip, the Danish and Swedish people are incredibly respectful, and we are thankful for them sharing their country with us. Great areas, and much less crowded than other places in Europe. Really want to do Iceland. Anyway, I like John's analogs. 47-48' in my post above is a Euro heat wave analog. The summers of 47' and 75' were both record setters in Copenhagen. I am gonna ride those analogs I think. I will probably blend those with John's, and I think we have a pretty good set of analogs. Now, the July 1 CANSIPS......is a beauty yet again. BIG ridge out West for DJFM. Nice cold source. Seems a bit too good to be true, but it's a banger.

Somebody tell me about the winters of 47-48 and 75-76.

I think that is true for this winter…not the last two. Those were pretty strong analog years. But analogs for sure do not decide what comes next. We can agree on that. However, long wave pattern recognition during some weather cycles is not overly difficult. In fact, it might more accurate than d10-15 forecasts. I mean warm with a moderate to strong ENSO cycle. That might be different in middle and west TN. E TN often just watches storm tracks with this va cold front watching. For the past two winters, I felt pretty good about seasonal ideas. This one is tricky. But when in doubt, I go with ENSO. That says AN temps for DJF but with MJO cycles into colder phases at times. Storm track is coastal plain at times.

Cansips looks wrong…but if it is correct, we would be in business. Got a feeling it changes just a bit during future runs. But I hope not.

QBO should pop positive, right? Teleconnections are iffy right now. Storm track might be marginal help. Super Nino patterns are generally warm here with a random, highly localized big snow in somebody’s backyard. Might be the MJO is our best bet with warm water over 8-2-1. It might balance out the poor QBO alignment.

With mid to upper 90s on tap next week….winter with temps in the 50s all winter doesn’t seem so bad. LOL. As for the slow down…it‘s hot and this forum doesn’t do AN temps in the summer. LOL. I figured I would go w a winter thread since the current pattern is a snoozer. It will crank up soon enough!

I don’t have a clear forecast like I do during Niña years. I think a moderate to strong Nino seems likely. Normally, I would just go with 70-75% of days at AN for temps with normal to AN rainfall for E TN. The other 25-30% at normal. However, recent winters have featured 2-3 weeks of bitterly cold weather west of the Apps. Granted, that is likely due to a Niña signal. However, I think those cold shots may well just be a feature of winters right now…regardless. Normally, Nino winters are rainy and dreary with a lot of clouds…nothing remarkable with temps. But…the warmer temps may well cause some convection in MJO regions 8-1-2 near the dateline. That would cause some colder rotations with the MJO which has had strong influence during recent winters. The current June CANSIPS parks a monster EPO ridge over AK for most of the winter. The seasonal Euro is warmer over the East. I lean AN for temps this winter DJF, but that is not a strong lean. As for snow, Nino winters need to really be weak to weak-moderate for best chances. But for E TN peeps, the chances for coastal storms increase which creates a feast for famine pattern during many winters. Normally, Nino winters are kind of back loaded with normal Fall temps preceding that. I could see kind of a meh December with chances in Jan and Feb.

Mission accomplished! Line died as it hit NE TN. Thankful and blessed with the nothing burger.

Niece has a wedding tomorrow at 5:00PM in eastern Hawkins. Ya'll keep that out of here between 5:00-5:30. I already gave them a heads-up. 80mph wind gusts and 1" hail on the NWS graphic - NOPE!

My grass was late-August crunchy last week. Today, it is recovering and green. What a difference a week makes. Rain is in the forecast as it should be for this time of year. I was running on the greenbelt and ended up in a flooded section - we have had that much rain. This isn't a big creek nor was there any current....I went on through it. It was surprisingly cold. The humidity is what I am having to get used to!

Looks like frost on the rooftops this morning, even in parts of Kingsport. We only missed the all-time record low by two degrees at the airport.

TRI's records/normals' listed date for May 3rd reads 9999 for the record low. But it should also be a record low. That makes two record lows for the month. 90s on tap for Sunday! Whiplash weather! IMHO this is just a continuation of the winter pattern which had HUGE swings. I think we head into a more stable, warm pattern from this point forward. I think.

That should break the record low at TRI by three degrees. The old record was 35. That is the fourth latest freeze in TRI history.