Carvers Gap

I think that is true for this winter…not the last two. Those were pretty strong analog years. But analogs for sure do not decide what comes next. We can agree on that. However, long wave pattern recognition during some weather cycles is not overly difficult. In fact, it might more accurate than d10-15 forecasts. I mean warm with a moderate to strong ENSO cycle. That might be different in middle and west TN. E TN often just watches storm tracks with this va cold front watching. For the past two winters, I felt pretty good about seasonal ideas. This one is tricky. But when in doubt, I go with ENSO. That says AN temps for DJF but with MJO cycles into colder phases at times. Storm track is coastal plain at times.

Cansips looks wrong…but if it is correct, we would be in business. Got a feeling it changes just a bit during future runs. But I hope not.

QBO should pop positive, right? Teleconnections are iffy right now. Storm track might be marginal help. Super Nino patterns are generally warm here with a random, highly localized big snow in somebody’s backyard. Might be the MJO is our best bet with warm water over 8-2-1. It might balance out the poor QBO alignment.

With mid to upper 90s on tap next week….winter with temps in the 50s all winter doesn’t seem so bad. LOL. As for the slow down…it‘s hot and this forum doesn’t do AN temps in the summer. LOL. I figured I would go w a winter thread since the current pattern is a snoozer. It will crank up soon enough!

I don’t have a clear forecast like I do during Niña years. I think a moderate to strong Nino seems likely. Normally, I would just go with 70-75% of days at AN for temps with normal to AN rainfall for E TN. The other 25-30% at normal. However, recent winters have featured 2-3 weeks of bitterly cold weather west of the Apps. Granted, that is likely due to a Niña signal. However, I think those cold shots may well just be a feature of winters right now…regardless. Normally, Nino winters are rainy and dreary with a lot of clouds…nothing remarkable with temps. But…the warmer temps may well cause some convection in MJO regions 8-1-2 near the dateline. That would cause some colder rotations with the MJO which has had strong influence during recent winters. The current June CANSIPS parks a monster EPO ridge over AK for most of the winter. The seasonal Euro is warmer over the East. I lean AN for temps this winter DJF, but that is not a strong lean. As for snow, Nino winters need to really be weak to weak-moderate for best chances. But for E TN peeps, the chances for coastal storms increase which creates a feast for famine pattern during many winters. Normally, Nino winters are kind of back loaded with normal Fall temps preceding that. I could see kind of a meh December with chances in Jan and Feb.

Mission accomplished! Line died as it hit NE TN. Thankful and blessed with the nothing burger.

Niece has a wedding tomorrow at 5:00PM in eastern Hawkins. Ya'll keep that out of here between 5:00-5:30. I already gave them a heads-up. 80mph wind gusts and 1" hail on the NWS graphic - NOPE!

My grass was late-August crunchy last week. Today, it is recovering and green. What a difference a week makes. Rain is in the forecast as it should be for this time of year. I was running on the greenbelt and ended up in a flooded section - we have had that much rain. This isn't a big creek nor was there any current....I went on through it. It was surprisingly cold. The humidity is what I am having to get used to!

Looks like frost on the rooftops this morning, even in parts of Kingsport. We only missed the all-time record low by two degrees at the airport.

TRI's records/normals' listed date for May 3rd reads 9999 for the record low. But it should also be a record low. That makes two record lows for the month. 90s on tap for Sunday! Whiplash weather! IMHO this is just a continuation of the winter pattern which had HUGE swings. I think we head into a more stable, warm pattern from this point forward. I think.

That should break the record low at TRI by three degrees. The old record was 35. That is the fourth latest freeze in TRI history.

It looks like the airport has dipped to 32F. That is a big time bust from my point and click which was 40-41! I went out and covered my stuff last night thankfully. The GFS and NAM have been kicking butt and taking names w/ low temps. That should be the last time we hit freezing until next fall - famous last words though!

The NBM has lows over TRI at 41 tonight. The 6z GFS and 6z 3k NAM both have lows in the mid to upper 30s. I probably won't cover my stuff tonight, but am waiting until tomorrow to plant the rest of my warm weather plants. This is the latest I have planted those in a long time. That is ironic given how warm it is has already been this spring. This last series of cold shots were a doozy. Spring is surely full of wild swings and April/May sure have lived up to that!!!!

Looks like the final risk for frost is Friday morning with lows in the upper 30s in NE TN and SW VA. Point and click forecasts are a little warmer than current modeling. Beware. After that, temps warm rapidly and temporarily back to late summer levels this weekend.