Carvers Gap

I would post these in the storm thread. Honestly, it tells part of the story. When we look back in a few years, it will be great information.

Friday afternoon into Saturday....the 12z Euro continues to advertise a NW flow event. The RGEM at 18z definitely looks snowier...see John's post immediately above this. Is that the 18z RGEM?

The water main break in Fort Sanders is insane. This cold weather is doing a number on infrastructure. Go find some photos of it - WILD.

Usually takes them 1-2 days to input those.

Nope. Major temp bust. 0 was my forecast low. Radiational cooling due to snow pack will undercut many temp forecasts when skies clear. Modeling had this correct...the point and click did not.

There have been only three record lows set during the 2000s at TRI during February. 2026 now holds two of those three records(both sub zero temps). 2015 holds the other. A little bit of history made at TRI to start February.

Looks like TRI actually made it to -7F according to WCYB social media. David Boyd notes that the Feb 1 record was also broken last night as temps hit 1F right before midnight. Two records in one night....

The 12z RGEM puts half a foot in some areas one SW VA Weds-Thursday. @Daniel Boonehas been all over this.

Great find.

We have snow flurries as well.

Wow!!! That is truly impressive.

Looks like KTRI dipped to -6F according to the 3 day weather history. The low which was broken was from 1971(0F), and was TRI's coldest temp in 11 years per David Boyd, a met at WCYB. When we start breaking record lows from the 70s, that is saying something.

Just shuffling through wx maps and the weeklies. It looks like next weekend could be very cold yet again. Then, we warm-up during the second week of February. That has been well advertised and is no surprise. Then, sometime between d17-24 we could have another strong cool down per the Euro weeklies mean and control. That holds for roughly 2-3 weeks. Again, that really fits the winter pattern. But....changing wave lengths have the potential to create more chaos than normal within modeling. We are entering a time frame where LR modeling gets very undependable, even at the long wave level. But I do think roughly sometime between Feb 17-20 looks like the next resupply of very cold air(after this weekend). The NAO will often not be felt by modeling until just a few days prior to it strengthening. It establishes sometime (if models are correct) between Feb 8-9th. Then, I think it takes about 7-10 days for the eastern NA pattern to respond w/ a suppressed storm track.

The 18z GFS is advertising upslope next weekend for NE TN, SW VA, SE KY, and IF real...likely the Plateau works itself into the equation.

Cosgrove warned on his Saturday night extended forecast that the upcoming, brief warm spell could lull people into thinking winter is over. He noted that winter should return fiercely around mid-month and last through roughly the first week of March - then we break for spring which may well be wet and stormy according to LC. I see a window around Feb 15th and one around the 21st. The last half of the month looks cooler than the first half. If we are talking 95-96 as an analog, winter came back yet again after the first series of storms during that winter. OTH, 85(also an analog) simply got warm in February. I gotta be honest....I need some warm wx for a few days. Jan31st was -20.6 BN for TRI. That is an incredible number. TRI will finish w/ 8.6" of snow for January. Amazing finish to the month given that we had incredibly warm days for Jan 1-10th. I do think we need to watch any cold front(next weekend for example) as sometimes modeling has under-modeled the cold. So far, we have had two very cold air masses strike this winter...One after Thanksgiving which lasted into the middle of December. We had about a three week warm-up, and then the more severe cold shot(currently) hit. It has lasted for nearly three weeks. I suspect we repeat the pattern one more time, but am not guaranteeing this. The Weeklies do support a cool down during weeks 3-4. But just because we warm-up for a bit does not mean snow is not possible during that "warm-up." The NAO will likely be negative which places the storm track south of its normal location. We have just witnessed one of the great winter reversals of this century after that wild chinook.