Carvers Gap

Windows would be Feb 27, March 2nd, and March 5th.....nothing huge, but times to watch.

And just to add...I do think the 12z Euro and 18z GFS have enough cold and amplification where we could still score some snow. I honestly haven't looked a ton over the past few days...but they don't look terrible.

I should add that the Euro operational at 12z wasn't particularly warm. Some chances are embedded in that run.

I continue to feel semi-confident in a pretty strong cold shot during March. As I noted earlier, timing that is not easy. I would put the worst of the cold between March 10-April 10. I don't think that entire time frame will be cold. I just think there is a pretty rough cold shot in there. If forced to pick a timeframe, I would take March 14-28th as the worst....and it could be much BN. The Weeklies have been pretty adamant that the earlier winter pattern will repeat sometime between March 15-30th. I do think we may well track one last storm. For now, the Olympics and Mammoth have my attention. I don't do severe.

18z GFS still has some snow for the Plateau, NE TN region, and Apps. It is more aggressive than other models. I don't trust it at this point. So, instead of a thread that is flatlined....just talking Mammoth.

This is a good follow on social media -> UC Berkeley Central Sierra Snow Lab 2/19/26 8:30 am Update - the atmosphere is clearly showing off: 1-day : 25.6" 2-day : 54.9" 4-day : 92.5" And just in case you thought we were done… another 8–16" expected TODAY. At this point, the snowpack is basically building an extension onto the lab. Send snacks. Or a shovel. Or both.

The 12z Euro has a slider around 300. Granted, it's 300 but it sure seems like modeling is picking up on a bit more colder air than it had last week. As for the upcoming system....Sometimes, E TN can get into the gig. The 12z Euro is weak and barely a storm. The UKMET is well inland. I tend to think the solution is probably in the middle. Trends will have to be watched over the next few runs.

12z scorecard. UKMET is deep inland runner and likely too warm. GEM is money track. GFS is more of a coastal but close. ICON is snow showers and light upslope here. If I could wish cast, I would take a blend for MBY.

Indeed. Good catch. How has that model been this winter? Like the GEM, it had almost nothing at 0z. Much bigger and deepening solution. Even w/ the UKMET solution, I would think heights would crash quickly w/ a storm going that big. Maybe a late bloomer? IDK.

Look at the 12z GFS with its wind direction...nearly perfect for northwest facing areas. And this is the "weaker solution" on the 12z GFS.

The 12z GFS does the same thing but further east. Both reach hurricane force in terms of wind strength. Whether we can get in on the action? IDK. However, I would think the northwest flow game behind that would be pretty strong.

The 12z GEM brings that to right at 960 as it runs it up the coast. Look at the sustained winds and gusts. That is hurricane force.

Check out this storm evolution....This is the west side of the cone at this point. That slp track is nearly perfect for E TN. Not trying to leave out our middle and western folks, but this is the track of a huge storm. Again, I think this is an outside chance for E TN....but models have been hinting at this possibility.

The 12z GEM would be a winter storm for the northern Plateau, SE KY, SW VA, NE TN, and WNC at minimum. The ingredients are there. I am not sure it can get back this far west, but the GEM shows one path towards that. This has a chance to be a monster on the coast.

The 12z GEM dumped 72" over portions of DELMARVA.....I have been watching this system for a few days. The 12z GFS backed west but is no threat here, but the trend matters. Not sure it can get back this far w/ 100 hours to go, but the GEM is potent over E TN, especially the mountains. However, lower elevations would be impacted by that solution.