Carvers Gap

Yet another MCS seems poised this late evening to crash into portions of SW VA and NE TN. The ground is soggy here. I spent the better part of today cleaning up storm debris in the form of downed trees. One good, windy storm is gonna be a huge problem if it occurs anywhere in the near future w/ all of the wet ground and very full leaf canopies. On the plus side, fall should be beautiful if we can get some cool temps later in Sept. It looks like something akin to a rainforest in NE TN right now w/ all of the green!

Generally, big Ninos are warm here IMBY. But...it doesn't take my imagination much to think about what "could" happen if cold managed to find its way where w/ the STJ absolutely ripping. Maybe 09-10 is an analog, but not perfect? For me, this winter is a mystery and not a slam dunk like the previous two Nina winters. The other thing is if the Nino crashes midway through winter, and allows cold air to rush SE w/ the precip pattern in place. I don't think winter will be overly cold. But the it doesn't have to be crazy cold if January goes climo w/ a loaded precip pattern. Tough call. If the CANSIPS holds for the next two runs, that would be a good step. Also, analogs have been super sketchy during the past decade in regards to being accurate. A lot of seasonal forecasts are analog based I think. All of that said...we have seen during recent winters that there have been big snows in the northern hemisphere where amped precip jets hit cold air. Some yet-to-be place in NA seems primed for that.

CANSIPS has had a big western ridge(AK) for two straight seasonal runs - July and August.

They are setting watch boxes well out in front of this next line. Southwest VA bout to get hammered. I almost have a severe thunderstorm warning over MBY and the storms are just now exiting KY.

Flood warning are posted for multiple counties. That stuff coming south from KY looks like it means business. A tornado warning was posted earlier today over Saltville, VA.

Heavy rain north and west of the I81/26 interchange in NE TN. The storms look like streamers during northwest flow events, but with lots of lightning!

Another day with the fetch from the east…this time the SE. Seeing storms track from the Apps to SE KY is always crazy to watch.

As ALWAYS, great disco in this thread.

We are over due for a non-winer in NE TN. Just looking at yesterday's and today Euro LR ex control...winter may start early in the Rockies. Of course that means it will be extended summer here...haha -> the the pattern discussion thread and you will know why I am laughing. Every, single time. I think we see severe cold in the Canadian front rang or Plains at times. The real question is weather there will be a mechanism to move it southeastward. I have been watching solar flux lately. I know...I am bored w/ this pattern. Anyway, with the double peak over for this solar cycle, that could be a good thing for us. I actually don't like solar flux spikes. I understand they might cause disturbances in the strat, but....I think there might be a loose correlation to forecasted cold shots which never materialize. I tend to roll with this for temps in E TN. Dec - AN Jan - AN Feb - Normal Snow for NE TN only! Dec - BN Jan - Normal Feb - Normal My gut says this winter may be colder than most are projecting, even me. The CANSIPS has been sneaky good for a decade at the seasonal level. It is stubborn w/ a full winter ridge over Alaska. Euro seasonal are not enthused. That said, the CANSIPS are still at a range where they can change maybe one more time bigly. I think this winter may well be defined by 1-2 big storms to track. They may or may not result in anything. But w/ the STJ ripping and if the CANSIPS is even right for 2-3 weeks for the winter, there should be options for winter. Of note, strong or super Ninos generally are hot garbage over NE TN. My thoughts are that we are in a -NAO cycle, and that bails us out. The gradient in the Pacific matters quite a bit to grab an idea from typhoon tip. If the gradient is strong, we get typical Nino responses. If it is not strong, I suspect warmth dominates. Bastardi mentioned that today, but that is a staple of most seasonal forecasts to be fair. Without the solar flux spikes, we might steal some cold. PDO is a wildcard.

For at least second time this summer, our popcorn storms are coming from the Northeast. @Windspeedcalled it. Mowing sucks right now. It is almost impossible to find a time when the grass isn't wet. I am so attuned to La Nina summer endgames, I just about forgot what it looks like not to see everything fried and crisp at this time of year. That "should" prevent extended summer, but probably delay the start of winter. I will say that I have seen some false starts to winter with El Nino...only to hit a "meh" pattern for a good portion of December. Just flip everything from the last winter. I was telling @tnweathernutthat what interests me is whether we can get a base-active STJ(prob base warm-ish temps) to slam into a cold air mass which finds its way southwestward. It will likely be tougher to get those cold air masses into the SE, but if we do...look out. This looks like a very active pattern, and I expect that to continue through the first half of winter w/ obvious ebbs and flows. This is one of those winters where we probably have plenty of precip but less cold. Maybe some big hitters buried in a base meh pattern.

We need the PDO to go positive IMHO. Bastardi looked at it recently, and mentioned 23-24 as a year that occurred (Nino and -PDO). It tried to go cold but the cold ended up along the spine and front range of the Rockies. There was no mechanism to get the cold into the East for long periods of time. The needed QBO cycle(for cold, snowy) is what is counterintuitive given the solar state(dropping flux at the back en of this cycle?) and ENSO combo. Now, the PDO has moved towards neutral this year. That index really likes to double dip, but this has been a severely negative episode for several years, and I wonder if it flips positive for a bit. However, it could briefly go positive or neutral and then back negative.

Great question. One of the guys at WxBell maybe had an article about that. The best winter scenario might be opposite of what I think is normally best. I hate to guess. Let me go look. But the correlation w/ a strong Nino and PDO is tricky.

Definitely shredded it. It got its act together again around I-81…just west of the winter twilight zone where snow bands reform on NW flow.

I will take an order of disrupted PV during El Nino and split flow please! LOL. Please hold on the "extended summer."

The 90s used to be "not that long ago." And just like that, it is almost 30 years ago. To put that in perspective, the same time span remembrance in 97 would have been like trying to remember 1967! Crap.