Carvers Gap

Great product and great share! I am going to have to wade through all of that, but I generally understand 75% of the output - but not all. Meaning, I need to learn how to toggle all of that. We are missing snow data at TRI for several big winters unless that has been fixed recently...notably 95-96. Some of those missing data pieces include blizzards which have been scaled back to smaller events. It would be awesome to put @John1122 family's data into that algorithm of JW's. His family has the gold standard for private, uncorrupted, and ongoing wx obs for this forum. Even thought they don't match my region perfectly (he is further west and on the Plateau), I still trust his data above all others.

Scannerfood(FB) has a photo of that storm taken from I26(looking north) as one crosses Bays Mountain. Lightning is behind the feature that was likely formed, so there is a decent silhouette of it. Scud or no...that feature is likely the one associated w/ the tornado warning last night. Oddly enough, on the rare occasions that we get tornadoes IMBY, the often come from the NE - that is not the case in other parts of TRI. https://www.facebook.com/photo/?fbid=1506332371540513&set=a.552693933571033

Mother Nature has declared a do-over for last spring's "dry heat" and low precip. Now, we have humid heat and frog stranglers like we are living in Central Florida. Jeff, I lived in Central Florida for two years. You gotta make this stop! LOL. I am all for rain, but the downpours are getting crazy!

Bristol got absolutely hammered. Lots of flooding reports on social media. Euclid Ave looks like it got hit the worst.

Right now, Knox Co is under these… t storm watch t storm warning heat advisory flood advisory flood warning

Just tagging onto to 1234. More storms. This heat is really fueling these systems. Strong outflow boundaries developing east of the interstate in Cocke and Sevier counties

Yet another MCS seems poised this late evening to crash into portions of SW VA and NE TN. The ground is soggy here. I spent the better part of today cleaning up storm debris in the form of downed trees. One good, windy storm is gonna be a huge problem if it occurs anywhere in the near future w/ all of the wet ground and very full leaf canopies. On the plus side, fall should be beautiful if we can get some cool temps later in Sept. It looks like something akin to a rainforest in NE TN right now w/ all of the green!

Generally, big Ninos are warm here IMBY. But...it doesn't take my imagination much to think about what "could" happen if cold managed to find its way where w/ the STJ absolutely ripping. Maybe 09-10 is an analog, but not perfect? For me, this winter is a mystery and not a slam dunk like the previous two Nina winters. The other thing is if the Nino crashes midway through winter, and allows cold air to rush SE w/ the precip pattern in place. I don't think winter will be overly cold. But the it doesn't have to be crazy cold if January goes climo w/ a loaded precip pattern. Tough call. If the CANSIPS holds for the next two runs, that would be a good step. Also, analogs have been super sketchy during the past decade in regards to being accurate. A lot of seasonal forecasts are analog based I think. All of that said...we have seen during recent winters that there have been big snows in the northern hemisphere where amped precip jets hit cold air. Some yet-to-be place in NA seems primed for that.

CANSIPS has had a big western ridge(AK) for two straight seasonal runs - July and August.

They are setting watch boxes well out in front of this next line. Southwest VA bout to get hammered. I almost have a severe thunderstorm warning over MBY and the storms are just now exiting KY.

Flood warning are posted for multiple counties. That stuff coming south from KY looks like it means business. A tornado warning was posted earlier today over Saltville, VA.

Heavy rain north and west of the I81/26 interchange in NE TN. The storms look like streamers during northwest flow events, but with lots of lightning!

Another day with the fetch from the east…this time the SE. Seeing storms track from the Apps to SE KY is always crazy to watch.

As ALWAYS, great disco in this thread.

We are over due for a non-winer in NE TN. Just looking at yesterday's and today Euro LR ex control...winter may start early in the Rockies. Of course that means it will be extended summer here...haha -> the the pattern discussion thread and you will know why I am laughing. Every, single time. I think we see severe cold in the Canadian front rang or Plains at times. The real question is weather there will be a mechanism to move it southeastward. I have been watching solar flux lately. I know...I am bored w/ this pattern. Anyway, with the double peak over for this solar cycle, that could be a good thing for us. I actually don't like solar flux spikes. I understand they might cause disturbances in the strat, but....I think there might be a loose correlation to forecasted cold shots which never materialize. I tend to roll with this for temps in E TN. Dec - AN Jan - AN Feb - Normal Snow for NE TN only! Dec - BN Jan - Normal Feb - Normal My gut says this winter may be colder than most are projecting, even me. The CANSIPS has been sneaky good for a decade at the seasonal level. It is stubborn w/ a full winter ridge over Alaska. Euro seasonal are not enthused. That said, the CANSIPS are still at a range where they can change maybe one more time bigly. I think this winter may well be defined by 1-2 big storms to track. They may or may not result in anything. But w/ the STJ ripping and if the CANSIPS is even right for 2-3 weeks for the winter, there should be options for winter. Of note, strong or super Ninos generally are hot garbage over NE TN. My thoughts are that we are in a -NAO cycle, and that bails us out. The gradient in the Pacific matters quite a bit to grab an idea from typhoon tip. If the gradient is strong, we get typical Nino responses. If it is not strong, I suspect warmth dominates. Bastardi mentioned that today, but that is a staple of most seasonal forecasts to be fair. Without the solar flux spikes, we might steal some cold. PDO is a wildcard.