Carvers Gap

Today's GFS is the first of the operationals to get Nov 27th in range, albeit waaay out there. That is generally the earliest part of the potential window for sustained winter cold. Some modeling waits a few more days. The 12z GFS fits with what LR ext models have been saying. Now, we have seen head fakes at exaclty this range and at exactly this time of year during prior years. We have also seen LR ext models nail the forecast 4-6 weeks out. The GFS has a knack for spotting patterns at d16 during early winter. Here is a collection of maps from the morning and afternoon suites. 1. You can see the cold air configuration for DJF. The CFS flips flops between front loaded and back loaded winters, but generally this shows up regardless. I title this one "Remember when everyone used to talk about International Falls during cold outbreaks?" 2. The CFS daily runs 4x per day and can offer some fun solutions. I title this one, "Send it all to Cuba." This was from 6z. 3. The CFS at 0z gave us this lovely west PAC ridge. I title this one "Cold and dry." 4. As noted in the intro to this post, the 12z GFS now has Thanksgiving week in range. I title this one "Didn't we just do this yesterday?"

Wind chills at TRI dropped to 10F early this morning. I went running at a local state park this morning, and froze my tail off!!! Strava said the wind chills were 24F. Nope - they were 17F!!! That is probably the second coldest run I have done, but felt worse as I was exposed to the wind much more than other running routes. Last night, we had light snow until 10:00PM and likely much longer. This system was a powerhouse. We rarely get NW flow in Kingsport. We had several streamers. If this had fallen at night, we would have easily gotten 2-4" of snow. Just looking at some of the dates being kicked around for November snows...'93 and '14. Those went on to be benchmark winters for cold and snow. Will this winter follow suit? Time will tell.

Definitely some level of convective rotation. I have noticed it off and on today. Honestly, I am a little surprised there have not been reports of rumbles of thunder. Might just be too cold.

No particular order. Just thought I would share some LR ext maps and maybe throw in a seasonal. I am mainly looking at the time frame from Thanksgiving to Christmas. I tend to think the cold arrives just after Thanksgiving and holds to just before or right to Christmas. I think we have a very slight ridge or at least something to turn storms slightly northward if they slide across. I did throw in one turd burger control run just to show you how different the Euro Weeklies mean and control are. Pretty strong cold signal overall for early and mid December. There are much cooler weeks embedded within those 30 day maps.

The Euro Weeklies mean today is flat out frigid from just after Thanksgiving (onset TBD) to Christmas), and then hinting at the trough pulling west. I feel like I have seen that movie before! The control is the opposite! So, beware of shoulder season Weeklies. However, that is a really cold mean at this range. Yesterday's GEFS Weeklies were similarly cold. Looks like a PNA or EPO driven cold snap. It will be interesting to see if we can get November BN for temps...gonna be a close race.

Early score!

Haha. I am tickled that we have a snow thread on November 10th. @fountainguy97that 2014-2015 went on to be really, really good. You and John caught this synoptic setup early on. Generally, this is a money setup for NW flow w/ the shortwave. The Euro absolutely nailed this from way out.....I agree, @John1122. Fun to be tracking a system so early.

Same. That shortwave is what has interested me. It has been strong on modeling for several days. We picked up a burst here on Knob Creek in JC which made the ground white a few mins ago.

@Holston_River_Ramblerthe NW flow streamer off of Bays Mtn can be seen this AM. I drove through it on the way to JC. It is cranking. For anyone else, just look for the streamer SE of Kingsport along I26. I hit the stream right at Gray which is where it often sets up.

Very light dusting here in Kingsport on the roof tops and mulch. Shortwave on the 6z RGEM looks strong as Holston noted.

Haha. The CFSv2 is straight up frigid w/ its seasonal run today - bone chilling. February was just ridiculous.

Great post, and a great analog. Pretty amazing to see that type of correlation.

The Euro weeklies are crazy cold on the control run and very cold on the mean run. The Euro control drops a large amount of snow over the Tenn Valley for December. Now....we have seen the Euro be too cold for December. It is still shoulder season, but we take today's run and run with it.

The 12z CMC has a general 2-3" of snow over the Plateau and 6-12" over the Smokies. NW slopes in the foothills should see some snow as well - time of day dependent.

All of that to say, I think chances are increasing for high elevation snow and lower elevation snow showers in the foothills in prime NW flow areas around Nov 10-11. Either way, it should be very cold with afternoon wind chills in the upper teens to lower 20s in many places.