Carvers Gap
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I got you at 20" so far....HH FTW???
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Should be a good run. Slider.
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At 72, the surface pressure configuration is nearly identical to 18z.
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At 57 a big 1055 hp is pushing into eastern Montana and western N Dakota. Something may try to cut, but that dude is gonna have some say in that.
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I started using it after your rec. Good model.
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A little trick on wxbell...switch to mslp surface pressure and use the mouse over comparison. You can see the surface pressure about 10 mins before the surface output catches up.
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The 0z GFS is running...for those of you watching for trouble, post it here. You should be able to see differences almost right away.
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To clarify, I was comparing to 12z which is the last full run. The 18z didn't go all the way out. 0z is south of 12z.
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The 0z ICON flirted w/ a true coastal cyclogenesis. Probably some reflection west of the Apps, but the depth of cold would not allow much liquid. Severe winter storm as is. Totals are on Pivotal.
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0z ICON is on the board w/ a southerly trend.
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Ain't no way in hell I am using the NAM at range - good or bad. Haha.
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Definitely northerly trends by the AIFS and Euro at 18z in terms of sensible weather over the Valley. AIFS moved two counties to the north and the Euro moved four. The AIFS, after trending well south of its original solution, is back north to its original track. The trend makes sense given that over running events often trend north. The problem is ice and lots of it. If it is going to rain…we had better hope this makes another jog north into those big highs. I think big trouble is brewing if we can’t get this to warm up. It is possible that our vortex is either in a blind spot at high latitudes or got sampled better. I have nod idea which, could be additional data or the absence of data.
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That dude has been bad all winter. Flips badly almost daily. I stopped reading his stuff a year or two ago - I mainly see it in the ENSO or MA forum - can't remember which. He is just working for clicks.
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The 18z Euro would be a worst case scenario not because of rain...but because of insanely huge amounts of ice. That would knock power out to many, many people. I would gladly take rain over that business.
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Bam makes sure to make predictions for all sides of things. He basically canceled winter and had to retract the next day. He will always be right, because he predicts every outcome.
