Carvers Gap
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By 78, the GFS is doing something wonky w/ the polar jet(squashes the bend like bending a straw a bit to much).
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Maybe and hour or two slower at 63...track looks similar for wave one.
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Out to 60...minute differences to this point when compared to 18z.
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Early in the run, the position of the Baja low(and it may not matter) has been maybe 25-50miles southwest of 18z just based on quick glances at each 500 vort map tonight.
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Big 1054 hp in north, central MT at 30 and 36. HP might be a hair west (could be slower and actually not west). Otherwise. similar to 18z.
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The 12z GFS is rolling. It is important to remember that tomorrow night is also big due to more HH data being utilized.
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The 0z ICON (as was the NAM)....little bit flatter but still sends a strong reflection westward(edit). The ICON just about shifts the low to east of the Apps. As is, it ran the spine of the Apps. Their was less reflection west, but for sure....a decent amount...just less. Both models ticked south a bit. Both are icy as is the RGEM w/ shoves a weak low into the forum area. No big jumps at this point.
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I am glad you said that. I have noticed that same feature on other models as well...and it seemed like it could bleed into Chatty from there, but I couldn't remember. These big highs are capable of doing it.
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Snow axis was a tick south....came close to getting that slp east of the Apps.
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Great source! We appreciate the share!
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The 0z NAM at range...
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Great information. I will post the actual tweet for you. Credit to Jax for the find.
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Egads...the ZR totals on the 0z NAM.
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12z NAM....Later phase creates a flatter second wave...good trend. In general, the first wave was flatter as well. Precip shield w/ the first wave was about 6 counties south....barely got to the Ohio River Valley. With the second wave phasing later, that opens the window for the second slp to come in flatter. It would have been fun to see the rest of that run......out to say 150.
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Should be a later phase......I have no idea how that second wave is gonna look.
