Carvers Gap

Yeah, the 0z RGEM isn’t budging. If there is a model we don’t want to budge…it’s that one. I see the snow hole at 18z over your area. I took a screen shot for later discussion. That is a major data issue IMHO.

3k NAM with some fairly big reductions over Sullivan as well as the 12k.

I will say this…with everyone getting at least some snow, the stage is set for very cold air to pour into the region through Tuesday AM. Real feels are gonna be rough.

You all east of 81 appear set.

I do think the best lift comes in around midnight or just after for TRI and holds for a few hours. Though to be sure, empty or meh radars leave me depending in total faith on modeling and a concern this lacks some energy which was modeled. Let’s see where the 0z models go. I think they turn downward west of 81. If not, we could be in good shape. IMBY, this was scheduled to start around 2:00PM and run until Sunday early. It started around 1:00PM. To my surprise, it didn’t stick until the sun went down. And according to the WSW, rush hour could have been bad. Fortunately and thankfully, that didn’t happen. So at this point we wait. I continue to say the usual NW slope winners of the past…will be winners now. The cold front “should” get everyone to 2-3” outside of Chatty…and I never venture a guess there. To get higher totals, we are gonna need more energy building back as modeled or have an elevation advantage. Like John said…slow burn. IMBY…very slow burn. But let’s see…this is a cold storm and that is a not so common occurrence. There will be surprises almost assuredly - Captain Obvious.

Per the 18z 3K NAM…I do think this builds some to the north and west of 81 in TRI….but just not sold this goes to anywhere near Euro levels in that area. What I am getting is just cold air wringing out moisture at the lower levels. I would guess the 3K NAM adjusts sharply downward at 0z for areas west of 81. But I am willing to give it a chance. With storms like these, I have watched this set up too many times to name…often it just never builds back this direction. Holding steady at 1.25” of snow.

I can see empty sky and the moon. Gonna need some backfill clouds to start with. LOL.

TRI radar is lit south and east of I81. Pixie dust north and east of it IMBY…low rates here.

Sorry. I am in the ops thread talking about the pattern...but here goes. The 18z 3k NAM and RGEM spread energy from east to west w/ some backing evident. I will be interested to see if this occurs. I just want to see the wind w/ the light snow in combination per @tnweathernut.

Exactly my experience, and part of the reason I really have struggled to buy-in with this. You and I both drove through the cutoff zone. It is abundantly apparent where it is...even now at this early stage. Now, if the 18z GFS and 12z Euro are right...more energy rotates back into our area overnight from slightly NE. I can't say I like seeing the cutoff already in place, but there may be more fireworks before we are totally cutoff from the lift.

I drove about 3-4 miles south of my local…huge difference in rates. Already a big discrepancy evident here.

Yeah, that is very close. I would think mountain communities might meet that criteria, but they guard that designation with their lives in E TN.

The northwest side of TRI has to score early with this. The southwest side(west of I81) has prolonged and strong forcing due to orographic lift on northwest flow. The snow(as I mentioned to Stove) started here in Kingsport about 1:00PM which was early for most modeling by about an hour. The original timing was....19z -12 - 5 = 2:00PM. Though the storm is unusual w/ its dynamics...the stronger accumulations near the mountains are common when the incoming system has a northwest flow forcing component. Kingsport does better when there is backing of any kind and especially if there is Atlantic input. I would think any NW facing area could score well. I have my investment low for KPT, but am pulling for the Euro w/ the same fervor that I pulled for the GFS during the last storm...and maybe a little bit of "little engine that could" embedded in there. Good luck to you all in the foothills...we will live vicariously through you!

They showed 2:00PM for MBY here in TRI and started about an hour early. I am THANKFUL for Knoxville not having snow yet. I have one who has to commute home....selfishly, I want it to wait until after 4:00PM. Knoxville could potentially do well. I think Knoxville's totals could resemble the west side of TRI.

Areas that have orographic lift, you should do really well. My concerns for west of I81 in TRI are readily apparent w/ that map. MRX downgraded Bristol's and Kingsport's max to 1-3" - lower than Knoxville's. OTH, Gatlinburg has a max of 16". There are going to be some very strong gradients over TRI...potentially comparable to the storm of the late 90s.