Carvers Gap
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I think Sugar Mountain in NC is actually still open. With the snow tonight, they may well extend into this weekend.
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The last week of March is not looking warm.
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I saw some light snow flurries this morning.
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Light snow flurries and snow showers having been falling across TRI this morning. I believe that makes the fifth strategy month with snow in the air.
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Incredible. I am usually spared the high winds that the foothills get. I was surprised the winds here were that strong yesterday. Often, there will be wind advisories or warnings in the foothills, and it will just be breezy here. I am going to have to go back and look, but the winds yesterday may have been as bad as Helene IMBY or worse. Fortunately the ground was not soggy. I didn't see many trees down. I think the high winds from last fall purged any weaker trees and empties tries of weaker limbs.
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Wind gusts pushing 50mph here at TRI. Sustained winds are as strong as I can remember in some time.
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"A" for effort by the 6z GFS.
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18z March 9th time frame still looks interesting, and has for a while. Any system taking the low road during Feb is probably coming north.
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12z CMC(192) is trying to get interesting regarding wintry precip. The GFS and ICON do not have it...so beware.
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With the exception of about 7-10 days, I had snow continuously on the ground from say Jan 3 to yesterday (Feb 25th).
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18z GFS has great slp placement at 252. Probably the last window. As Jeff noted, things flip warm mid-month. The MJO looks like it will go to warm phases after the 15th or so. None of that is a surprise.
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Looks like overnight modeling is keying onto the March 7-8 time frame, and maybe one more shot after that. No guarantees. Looks like John has started our spring thread. Maybe we can begin spring with some snow. In like a lion.
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12z Euro is flirting with a trackable event around 300.
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We have gotten snow with almost every cold shot this winter. If we see another cold shot, I think we will see more snow.
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I will say that I can now see spring on Weeklies modeling. It looks like we flip warm around the third week of March - and now you know it will then snow knee high to a giraffe since I said that. When I call for it to get warm, it generally does the opposite. It is the one constant in my hobby skills.
