Carvers Gap

I broke down and looked at the MJO. Turns out, it is forecast to park itself in 8-1-2-3 through at least late January. It is in 6 right now - major winter storm in phase 6. File that one away for safe keeping. The Euro weeklies have a trough in eastern NA for Feb. Monster NAO block. EPO ridge....for most of February. Temps 7-9 degrees BN or Feb. Precip is listed as BN - good luck with that during Feb. If that verifies, that is a much different February than we have been used to of late. It fits w/ the weak La Nina and negative QBO analogs. Can we go 14-15...IDK? But 95-96 2.00-light would suffice.

Of note above from MRX regarding NE TN...Carter and Unicoi counties have been added to the WSW.

@fountainguy97 National Weather Service Morristown TN 816 PM EST Fri Jan 23 2026 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 813 PM EST Fri Jan 23 2026 - Tonight will remain dry with seasonally cool temperatures. - A significant winter storm will impact the region, primarily Saturday PM through Saturday night. All types of precipitation (rain, freezing rain, sleet, and snow) are expected. - The heaviest snow and sleet accumulations (around 3 inches or locally higher) are most likely along the Tennessee/Kentucky state line and into southwest Virginia. The heaviest ice accumulations (over 0.25 inches) are most likely along the Cumberland Plateau/southern plateau, central and northeast East Tennessee, and just north of Interstate 40/81. Snow accumulations will be more limited further south with ice accumulations more uncertain along the foothills and southern Valley. - High winds expected across the foothills of the mountains and ridge tops on Saturday night into Sunday. - Extreme cold temperatures are expected Monday into Tuesday with highs well below freezing and overnight lows approaching or falling below 0. Lower wind chills are expected. && .UPDATE... Issued at 813 PM EST Fri Jan 23 2026 Based on the latest model data and recent trends, Unicoi, Carter, and Johnson Counties have been added into the Winter Storm Warning. The better snow accumulations, nearing 2 inches or more, look to be in Johnson County. All counties look to see ice accumulations at or above 0.25 inches in some portion of them. This is less confident in places like Elizabethton and Hampton due to local downsloping effects, but other portions of Carter County are expected to see more significant ice accumulations. This also better matches up with places to our south and east.

100%. We had one pipe bust in ours years back in our current home due to a cold snap. Our drain from our AC also busted - which reminds me! We keep a heated coil on it nowadays. I remember during 1985 sitting under our house trying to fix a split copper pipe(inserting a new section) and trying to sweat that pipe. At -22F, everything refreezes instantly. It kept blowing out the joint when we tried to put things back together. We finally had to go get cardboard and put it on the ground in order to withstand the cold. Also that winter, my dad and I put a starter in a 1972 Impala in the K-Mart parking lot here in Kingsport. Those two days were the coldest of my life. Great memories, but so cold.

Feels like -20. Nope. Haha.

And ya'll. I can tell you after Helene...you don't want to be without power. No hot water. No wifi. No way to easily charge phones without a generator. And internet w/ your cell provider is iffy as everyone else is on it as well. During the fall...no AC is not pleasant either. I can't imagine doing that with below zero temps. We have alternate power and heating sources, but whew - it's work without power. During Helene, we had boil water advisories to boot - sucked!!!! At night, candles are great but flashlights are better. I went out and bought a bunch of candles and extra lights after Helene. Generators are incredibly valuable. I wish I had solar chargers for phones.

No power would kind of put a dent in tracking future winter storms. Give me some light snow Thursday w/ that front.

In sports, they say if you "turn the corner" enough...you might end up right where you started.

I didn't realize you were that far north in Illinois. Sorry I didn't realize... I just looked it up, and probably should have known that since you post here some. I know now! Yeah, that is cold! For some reason I thought you were in central Illinois. It makes sense now why you were mentioning bare ground during December.

My point and click for Tuesday morning is 0 with gusts to 20mph.

TRI is at +2.2 for the month. Unless something changes, we should easily finish BN or January. After Sunday, my point and click temps don't go above freezing until Friday when he forecast ends.

Awesome! We now have TWO hot threads. Best subforum on AmWx, but I am biased. I do like our SE folks though! @beavis1729, what is your forecast in Illinois?

Yeah, man. Something has to give there. I do like snow for Thursday though. Maybe we can get some thunder on Sunday! Funny...not funny.

Yes. I miss the days of the days of the dependable northwest jog. Now, we gotta listen to BamWx calling in our system from Columbus. Good call by him, but doesn't mean I have to like it. Haha.

Probably need it down there for now. Remember the days when we used to trend a storm from South Carolina into E TN. The SE forum guys didn't like us so much when that happened.