Carvers Gap
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And that is still mid-storm. It is still snowing over the entire forum area at that hour (144).
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The 12z map is almost identical. I will grab one in a minute if someone else doesn't post it. Just remember, the 18z is still mid-storm when that map cuts off. Maybe take 50 miles off the north side - maybe.
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Basically a repeat of 12z. Consistency and a big run which stops at 144.
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If the Euro locks in over the next 2-3 runs along w/ the EPS....I think that is a very good thing. I have learned never to speak in absolutes in this hobby. Arrogance would be a pathway to egg on my face!
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It isn't optimism. It is the 18z Euro. Boom.
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Most of that in the forum area is frozen. Some of you might sneak above freezing for a bit. Snow or ZR. Trended south. I threw in the both full run and storm clown map if you wanted it.
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I don't think so.
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The 18z AIFS (entire run) buries portions of the forum...and I don't take that term lightly. No idea if it is right, but wow.
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The 18z AIFS is a major snow an ice storm for the Tennessee Valley region...end to end.
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I know we are all focuses on this upcoming weekend...but the 18z AIGFS and GFS absolutely bury most of the forum area after next weekend.
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I am just digging back through my images archives. Here are some good ones. (BTW, the 18z GFS buries the forum over the next 16 days)..... Now you know why I like the Euro Weeklies control run. It potentially(if this storm verifies) hit the Jan 25th time frame from 30 days out - the day after Christmas! The AIFS hit it at 360. The GFS hit it earlier that the image, but its 288 map is uncanny with possibly near perfect BN heights. The EPS absolutely nailed the d10-15 over-running window - I just didn't post that image. Hopefully, this gives us some historical reference as we look back at what worked and what didn't from a LR modeling perspective. The GEPS was probably the first ensemble to really stick and hold w/ the overall look at 500.
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I like seeing which models sniffed this out at range. This forum had this window from way out there. Just looking at some posts(Jed and Jax go pick up your long ranger awards). The hapless and much maligned and lowly GFS nailed this window at full range(pretty sure 384!), including the big high. Ensembles from all models also hit this at almost d15. The GFS has historically had some skill(or is it a broke clock is right 2x a day) at d16. Pretty incredible for a that model or any model. Honestly, I am intrigued that it was able to due that given its struggles this winter.
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The 18z ICON does the same. So, the models which end up with a suppressed solution....just cut off the Baja low for it to drift into oblivion. When it kicks out...boom.
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I think you are right. When the entire thing comes out, it can actually attack the big high. Without that energy...it is forced well south.
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I sure was. Not a trend we want to see north o I-40. Any model now which is trying to cut west of the Apps is an outlier. Models are quickly feeling the effects of a hp(albeit a bit weaker) which is exerting a lot of force. I suspect the Euro will trend south...but eventually trend back north. Suppression, in my mind, has always been an equal risk to the cutter scenario. It makes much more sense. That said, the GFS has been woeful this winter...and the ICON has been all over the place. The 18z GEFS is probably more important for a few more runs.
