Carvers Gap

This might just be the algorithm for WxBell over-doing this, but interesting....

Is that a some snow on the front end of the system for this upcoming Saturday night as well?

Looks like the 12z GFS is going to have something similar. The 0z CMC wasn't bad either.

Overnight modeling definitely interesting.

@nrgjeff, basketball season is here! Vols get a big one against Houston. I like how they played down the stretch in that game. How are the Jayhawks this year?

It is pretty wild to see the 12z Euro as it does not get stuck loading endless troughs into the Southwest. It looks reasonable.

Amazingly, the 12z Euro has a very similar solution to the 12z GFS. And the 12z Euro absolutely hammers the area with cold throughout its 360 hour run. I think it is safe to say that modeling is "seeing" the MJO rotation now through cold phases. I am just going to have to file this one away for safe keeping. I bet if I go back through the threads, I can find a similar scenario where the MJO wasn't recognized until the "last moment." Usually, modeling(as noted the other day) will try to sustain cold while in the warm phases of the MJO. Then, at the last minute, models flip warm. I think we have seen this one, except in reverse. Now, I do think we see some warm-ups. These are deep troughs and steep ridges. That is going to move a lot of cold air and warm air into places which don't see things like that often. There is a mechanism to transport subtropical air to the Arctic Circle and a mechanism to transport Arctic air into the subtropics. During La Nina, especially early in the season before long range patterns flatten into more stable waves for winter, these wild patterns are possible. I would suspect that we see this wild pattern persist through much of December. I would definitely think an anafront is on the table. We have seen several of those recently, and the cold that is present on modeling would certainly allow for one.

The irony of looking at a monster SER for a few days on modeling…only to need a NW trend this morning. That is what makes this hobby so great and maddening at the same time. The CMC cuts west of the Apps. We prob need the GFS to stay SE of us. If that SER flexes at all, that system is going to St Louis. But the cold pressing eastward on modeling and ensembles is strong. I would suspect a system is brewing, but with model mayhem, I have no idea where it is going. I would think someone in our forum area might do ok with it.

Sitting at the dentist for a checkup, or I would post the maps. Quick glance…there are some with light amounts west of for Apps. The GFS deterministic run has some support for sure.

The 0z CMC has ice for the western half of the state and typical CAD locations of W NC. The 0z Euro is close to a storm. The 6z GFS is just cold which differed greatly from its 0z run - even just after 100h! The 0z Euro was one cold front after another. I do think the SER will flex between fronts. Could be some wild swings. Definitely plenty to look at from overnight.

Glad @John1122reminded us of the basketball game. Wow. Insanely good on offense today. You all know that I like the Euro controls. I went back to the last 7-8 runs. They are alternating almost perfectly from warm to cold...every other day. Well, here is today's, and this has support across the 12z suite(even though this was a 0z run). This is a 30 day map for the month of December. Lot of big troughs swinging through w/ the SER flexing as the cold retreats. To me at least, that seams like a reasonable pattern compromise.

I have repeatedly watched the deterministic GFS lead the way over other deterministic and ensembles at this time of the year(during past winters). It maybe doesn't do that as we get later into winter, but it seems to do a little better(than other models) during late shoulder season and early winter. I do admit ensembles carry more weight, but a lot of those ensemble members are cold. At the very least, some very cold weather is not out of the realm of possibility. And if the trend continues during future runs, those ensembles will flip. Fun 12z suite for sure. Pretty big cold signal for Dec 3 and/or Dec 6.

I don't think that is look is a slam dunk, but nice to see 12z deterministic runs(across the board) show a great pattern. Ensembles are understandably slow to respond. I think a lot of the mean temps are skewed on the ensembles. There are 4-5 big ridges out of 20 members. The temps under those 4-5 members are skewing the mean. If those were tossed as outliers, the mean would be much colder. Hopefully, those warmer ensemble members begin to exit as we get closer...that could mean deterministic models may be closer to being right.

Ah, yeah. Thanks for the reminder. I about forgot about the mid-day game!!!

IMHO, there is a decent storm signal showing up IF the cold settles into the Ohio River Valley. There are multiple CAD signatures for W NC. I would also think there is potential for winter storm across the upper tier of the Upper South with the way that storm track sits. We will see if this trend continues going forward. This started late yesterday with both the AIFS and GFS trending colder. The 12z suite is cold across the board. It could just be a batch of data or it could be a continuing trend.