Carvers Gap

Ensembles are honking for a pretty good cold outbreak mid-month. Duration TBD.

I still think we are likely in a repeat of the same cycle which persisted through much of winter. 2-3 weeks of cold, followed by 2-3 weeks of warm weather, followed by a false start back to cold, and then finally the trough over the East amplifies.

After the severe window, both the 12z GEM and Euro have a fairly pronounce trough sliding through the East...and maybe more than one. That will also have to be watched. That type of setup can get squirrely. Really, the severe setup followed by cold/snow showers is not without precedent.

Spring Discussion Thread has been posted....

Sure looks like a severe signal showing up between 200-240 hours.

I had been hearing about some of the heavy snows to hit Japan during the past few days. Here is a YouTube video of some of that snow. It was just posted two days, so I assume it is recent. Pretty amazing amounts.

I thought wx models did well at range w/ yesterday's NW flow potential. They kind of hiccuped within 72 hours, but eventually reality would match those prolonged upslope runs from a week ago.

Nice way to cap the season here. We had light snow falling for almost 24 hours. The snow didn't accumulate much as John noted. Last evening about 8:30, it did pick up and coat everything w/ 0.25-0.4" of powder. Schools were on delay or closed today in much of NE TN. I suspect we get 1-2 more cold shots, but for now....the rain/snow line looks like it is over the Ohio River Valley. But this is the time of year where wx models can change wildly at times. Anything is possible.

Nice little dusting IMBY which occurred over the past couple of hours. Chalk up a "trace" at my house.

Windows would be Feb 27, March 2nd, and March 5th.....nothing huge, but times to watch.

And just to add...I do think the 12z Euro and 18z GFS have enough cold and amplification where we could still score some snow. I honestly haven't looked a ton over the past few days...but they don't look terrible.

I should add that the Euro operational at 12z wasn't particularly warm. Some chances are embedded in that run.

I continue to feel semi-confident in a pretty strong cold shot during March. As I noted earlier, timing that is not easy. I would put the worst of the cold between March 10-April 10. I don't think that entire time frame will be cold. I just think there is a pretty rough cold shot in there. If forced to pick a timeframe, I would take March 14-28th as the worst....and it could be much BN. The Weeklies have been pretty adamant that the earlier winter pattern will repeat sometime between March 15-30th. I do think we may well track one last storm. For now, the Olympics and Mammoth have my attention. I don't do severe.

18z GFS still has some snow for the Plateau, NE TN region, and Apps. It is more aggressive than other models. I don't trust it at this point. So, instead of a thread that is flatlined....just talking Mammoth.

This is a good follow on social media -> UC Berkeley Central Sierra Snow Lab 2/19/26 8:30 am Update - the atmosphere is clearly showing off: 1-day : 25.6" 2-day : 54.9" 4-day : 92.5" And just in case you thought we were done… another 8–16" expected TODAY. At this point, the snowpack is basically building an extension onto the lab. Send snacks. Or a shovel. Or both.