Carvers Gap

Next system to watch looks like next Thursday into Friday.

I browsed through overnight and early morning model runs. It certainly looks like we are about to enter a northern stream dominant pattern. What I am seeing is rain changing to snow w/ a lot of these. Higher elevation areas may just get hammered for the next 2-4 weeks. Whatever the foothills have missed this winter, they may get repaid in full during the coming weeks. Lots of northwest flow vortices.

Yeah, it cut loose here. The 6hr loops on modeling didn't show that line. But I looked at some 1hr incremental loops, and it had a light reflection of the line that was to come through. I think Holston is on to something w/ the lee side. Original modeling (many, many runs ago) had a lee side develop and back flow over NE TN. It kind of disappeared on modeling during the last 24-48 hours. In reality, that is exactly what occurred. This was a complex system to model. I normally don't like waiting for a second thump of snow as it doesn't usually work out, but this turned out to be a pretty accurate 1-2 punch.

Definitely. That line of snow that was moving through moved incredibly slow. Something had to be "backing it up."

We received 2" more of snow overnight for a total of 3". Wind chills are 5F right now. The much anticipated northwest flow event actually was led off by a strong band of heavy snow. It did not disappoint IMBY. I got up this morning and watched it for a bit. This image is of the initial line of snow as it began to move through TRI earlier today. We probably ended up 3.5 total...1.5 yesterday plus the 2 overnight. I have 3" of snow right now on my usual measuring spots.

It appears that the Euro Weeklies Control wants no part of spring. It is frigid, like ridiculously so for like five weeks. Apparently, it has drunk the MJO juice. It has been doing this for a few days. It delays spring until early April. Its 32d temp composite is ten degrees below normal for much of the forum area.

So far, we have received about 1.5". I get a slight elevation bump where I am located.

A second winter weather advisory has been posted for TRI tonight.

The 12 GFS is again loaded up.

I know it is a bit out there, but I really like the timeframe just before March 10th. Ensembles have very cold temps incoming again around March 7th. The EPS has temps 10 degrees below normal. The GEPS and GEFS are 3-4 degrees colder than that. That is prime climatology for an early spring winter storm to boot. Looks like maybe warmup next week between say Tuesday and Thursday before temps go back to being BN. This is kind of a back and forth pattern being portrayed which is more cold than warm. It is pretty crazy that we set 1-2 record highs to start the month, and it is snowing today after severe weather and flooding. That is not as uncommon as one would think. IMHO, the pattern until it says otherwise is intrusions of warm air masses into a colder pattern. At some point spring will appear, but winter may hang on for a bit into early spring.

Just digging back through overnight runs, the 0z GFS was pretty epic. I like the GFS about this time of year as it handles the dynamic of an approaching new season better. Short version, it is better during shoulder season. The GFS is loaded, even during bad runs....lots of incoming systems and cold. I do think we see some warmups, but tons to track at this moment. This looks like a pattern where higher elevations get hammered and lower elevations of NE TN, SE KY, and SW VA get some surprises.

Really nice pattern projected by both the MJO, ensembles, and some deterministic runs. The MJO looks like it may stall in the cold phases - that is becoming more likely but not certain. Ensembles keep the trough over the eastern US for the foreseeable future (maybe through March 10th or so). The pattern is active with a lot of northern stream vortices in play. It is late season, so like today, we need things to be a little more Goldilocks - just right. However, I think NE TN, which has had less snow than many, may well cash in on a few more events. Again, modeling is finally seeing the MJO influence.

Maybe an inch of snow IMBY. Snow looks like it is dissipating quickly over the region. We might get another little bump later in the morning. Tonight is what I have been waiting on. It won’t be a ton, but Arctic fronts can do weird things during Feb.

I think this Arctic front is going it have to be reckoned with in NE TN tonight and the northern Plateau. Frigid temps and IMO over performs in many areas due to the cold ground.

This gets my attention.