Carvers Gap

Definitely northerly trends by the AIFS and Euro at 18z in terms of sensible weather over the Valley. AIFS moved two counties to the north and the Euro moved four. The AIFS, after trending well south of its original solution, is back north to its original track. The trend makes sense given that over running events often trend north. The problem is ice and lots of it. If it is going to rain…we had better hope this makes another jog north into those big highs. I think big trouble is brewing if we can’t get this to warm up. It is possible that our vortex is either in a blind spot at high latitudes or got sampled better. I have nod idea which, could be additional data or the absence of data.

That dude has been bad all winter. Flips badly almost daily. I stopped reading his stuff a year or two ago - I mainly see it in the ENSO or MA forum - can't remember which. He is just working for clicks.

The 18z Euro would be a worst case scenario not because of rain...but because of insanely huge amounts of ice. That would knock power out to many, many people. I would gladly take rain over that business.

Bam makes sure to make predictions for all sides of things. He basically canceled winter and had to retract the next day. He will always be right, because he predicts every outcome.

The 18z Euro would be a really bad ice storm for most...before changing to rain on the back end. In my few experiences w/ ice in the eastern valley....if that cold gets trapped, it doesn't get scoured. I think the depth of the cold air keeps it frozen. It's just what version of frozen does the forum get that is the question for me.

Was just coming to comment on this. Those are all-time record lows on that map.. We rarely ever see that extreme on modeling, and have seen -10s occur about once a decade...mid 80s, early mid90s, mid-late 2010s.....I think we would have to have deep snowpack to get there. But the overall setup on modeling (HL and EPO block) would support very cold temps if we get snow on the ground. While the GFS run is over cooked, its low temps do have some support across modeling. I cannot imagine those temps w/ the power out or no alternate source of heat.

With 12 days still to be inputed, TRI is one +3.3 after that warmup to start the month. Lows have been quiet cold this month. The interesting thing will be whether we can erase the +3.3, and I think that will likely occur. The chances for January to finish BN(maybe well below) are quite high, especially considering that today will almost certainly be well BN and added to the list tomorrow. Pretty amazing to see a reversal on the table after all of that warm weather. By the end of January, Dec/Jan may well average below normal for temps...even with the huge post Christmas chinook.

Need a break from analyzing the growing potential of a weekend winter storm? So do I. Here is some long range stuff.... Feb 2-7....looks like we get a break and a WELCOME warmup. We may need it. Here are 30 day maps from the Euro Weeklies mean and control today. The other is the CFSv2 from lunch. There is a good chance that Feb 2-7th is halftime for winter. The Euro Weeklies control has two more substantial cold shots embedded. One is at d20-27. The 500 pattern again looks ripe for February. I have listed Feb7-March7 as the next possible big window. This runs a little bit against overall Nina climatology, but I bet you can find a group of La Nina winters which have a small cluster of very cold Februarys. In fact, this might well be a Nino pattern beginning to flex just a little. Nice EPO, NAO, AO block. Again, this is how you trap cold air under a block and send it southward. Precip during this time frame looks seasonal, and I would doubt this would be a dry time as climatology favors increasingly wet weather as we slowly approach spring. As for spring....man, it looks way out there as of this writing. Now that could change, but there are some signs winter may linger this year well into March. If this pans out, Larry Cosgrove put together a gem of a seasonal forecast. Uncanny. I don't think wx modeling can outrun the human mind - yet!

Well, evidently the Scooters groundhog has some kind of Puxatony Phil powers. Didn't seem overly scared of his shadow, but maybe that is what happens when good folks slip you a cake bite now and then - got to stay visible.

I saw a groundhog roaming around at Scooter's Coffee(great place on the west end here!) during the middle of winter last week. I should have known we were in trouble then.

Follow that up w/ temps that barely get above freezing from Sat-Sat...and that is a big problem. Some temps almost assuredly will be low single digits or BZ for nighttime lows. Yikes.

Decent agreement now. I have been waiting on the GEM-para to come into alignment. It did at 0z regarding E TN.

Impressive. I bet that 6z GFS run went in recently....but that is huge from this range.

Yes. That is the one you had to remind me of that time...ice to snow and back to ice in Knoxville.

5-7" band of sleet stretching over a good portion of Tenn. Never seen anything like it!