Carvers Gap

I probably won't roll back in here until 12z. I might catch the 0z GFS run....if I am feeling remarkably good. Haha.

I still think it is a very long shot. However, where we are seeing some of these systems rain instead of snow...tells me that modeling is over doing the cold and there is room for this to come north. However, these Gulf snows verify more often than I care to enjoy.

Yes, the mean is well west and into the E TN valley. No idea if it can get this far, but you can see the jog. You asked if this could jog northwest. I do believe the trough could verify north of where it is show currently. If so, this shifts the track.

18z GEFS left. 12z right.

Sure looks to me like the 18z GEFS ensemble members ticked NW.

Let's hope no data collection is done through the Verizon path. I doubt it, but certainly if models go haywire....we know.

The low in the Lakes is the problem. It was behind the system so not sure if it sped up?

12z RGEM was also def a bit warm…looked a bit over cooked.

Got a low parked over the Great Lakes…tearing up thermals. Bet this is still a pretty cold system. Might need that coastal.

Is Rufus RGEM?

Yeah, it probably is not getting sampled well if it is at the NP. Once it arrives on the continent, we might see a jump one way or the other. Need ground obs and plane obs.

Bitterly cold run of the 12z Euro.

Yeah, I think that run is off its rocker. There has been a trend over the past couple of deterministic suites to de-amplify d10-15, but ensembles are not biting yet. The 12z GEM is very cold. I do think the GFS is pretty good inside of d5. It has been wack-a-mole after that. A quick glance of the MJO has it heading into phase 8 between Jan26-30th depending on your model of choice. I would expect the eastern trough to go gangbusters around that time and into early Feb. Again, huge grains of salt. The MJO has not been well correlated to eastern NA weather so far this winter IMHO.

It is entirely possible that the Sunday system is just getting sampled better. But...I bet the Euro is the likely solution. The GFS has been on steroids this winter for some reason at times. Let's see where this Euro run goes...I am gonna bet it is west of its 6z run but not by a lot. If that storm actually cranks, it is gonna be frigid here.

The 12z GFS is a wild run...completely different than 6z. Flips the 500 pattern over Alaska after d7. The GEM is steadier. This may have to get settled by the ensembles. @Holston_River_RamblerI was surprised to see some solutions over E TN on the GEFS.