Carvers Gap
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I don't like that we have had feedback all over North America this winter which turned out to be false. That 6z GFS run almost had to have been. OTH, Juneau, Alaska, did get hammered. Mammoth got hammered, but really...kind of normal for them to have big storms like that. Russia got hammered. Strong amplifications and big storms kind of seem to be slightly more prevalent in the NH this winter??? Also, Italy's Alps got hammered after weeks of news stories saying they wouldn't have snow for the winter - huge snows at the end of December. I hope we get in on the action on some level...maybe not 2-3" of ice. For me, I think we need to see cold high pressure maintain its presence along w/ the STJ. Get those cooking, and see where it goes....
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You know the thing that is concerning for me is that on the 6z GFS run...we barely get above freezing at TRI from Saturday to the end of the run. The 0z Euro (can't use the 6z as it only goes out to 144) doesn't bring us above freezing until Feb 2, and has a very severe cold snap on the 30th. Maybe the real story(other than snow) is the duration and severity of the cold which could accompany this. If we get heavy snow or ice, that could be significant problem in combination w/ cold which follows. The GFS and GEM-para also both have another pretty severe cold snap around the 30th. The 0z EPS has a 10day mean from Jan 24th to Feb 3 which is 10-15 degrees BN...incredible or an ensemble to have that.
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The full run of the 6z GFS is just insanity - Mammoth like. I am guessing there is some feedback in that. The 6z AI Euro and 6z Euro were strong runs. 0z UKMET is the furthest north. Ensembles generally fit deterministic runs. 6z ICON if you want something to worry about.
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Two are for this Saturday...I threw in one bonus map for the entire run.
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Basically was the same run repeated. Very little difference. And that is hopefully a continuing trend.
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Some Kuchera, ice, and sleet maps for the 18z Euro...
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When the AIFS and Euro get close to a similar solution...that is a good thing. Very slight trend south on the 18z Euro...50 miles? Looks like maybe some coastal backing to boot.
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Here are two slides. The second slide is when the map cuts off.
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Thank you! And that is still mid-storm. It is still snowing over the entire forum area at that hour (144).
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The 12z map is almost identical. I will grab one in a minute if someone else doesn't post it. Just remember, the 18z is still mid-storm when that map cuts off. Maybe take 50 miles off the north side - maybe.
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Basically a repeat of 12z. Consistency and a big run which stops at 144.
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If the Euro locks in over the next 2-3 runs along w/ the EPS....I think that is a very good thing. I have learned never to speak in absolutes in this hobby. Arrogance would be a pathway to egg on my face!
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It isn't optimism. It is the 18z Euro. Boom.
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Most of that in the forum area is frozen. Some of you might sneak above freezing for a bit. Snow or ZR. Trended south. I threw in the both full run and storm clown map if you wanted it.
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I don't think so.
