Carvers Gap

Here are the d10-15 or d11-16 500 anomaly comparisons from the big four ensembles...Heights over Greenland are rising. BN heights over the SE. EPO/PNA ridge. BN heights over Alaska. It is correct that BN heights over Alaska don't teleconnect to BN heights over the SE as a general rule. But old school winters would have a cold Alaska and cold Southeast with an almost continuous cold feed from the Yukon into the Ohio Valley. It isn't without precedent, but recent climo is more or less against it. Interestingly, on the GEFS, the BN heights over Alaska are temporary and maybe on one other ensemble. Either way, that is a pretty decent cold signal for the first half of December. I won't rule out a big ridge rolling through for a few days.

12z Euro at 300. This will 100% change, but this is an example of what "could" occur if a cold front drags its heels in the Gulf.

I deleted the four map comparison of temps above. WxBell hasn't loaded the 12z d10-15 temp maps for the EPS. It had defaulted to 0z, and I didn't catch it until now. I should be colder than the map that was originally posted. Same deal for the GEPS.

I am waiting on the 12z EPS to fully populate so I can grab 5 and 10 day maps of 500 anomalies. But here is the deterministic d10-15. NAO and EPO regions both look good.

One more thing in a flurry of posts, I am beginning to see evidence that the NAO may begin to fire. It is notoriously hard to predict, but it is significant in both the CMC and Euro 12z runs. It is very evident on the 12z EPS and to some extent the 12z GEPS. That is a BIG difference between the CMC/Euro vs GFS.

@John1122 is definitely on the money with the 0z GFS not even getting to phase 8. I "think" that GFS plot is hopefully an outlier. But....definitely something to keep an eye on, and as always, a very keen observation from John to spot that. I "think" the 12z GFS began to correct that. I would take the GMON above and shift that stall to the phase 7/8 border. If it was January, I would be far more concerned w/ the faster rotation into 6. But really, I am always concerned it rotates back into 6 - even if it wasn't showing it! I wonder when/if the SSW begins to show at the end of deterministic runs. By the end of next week, we may start to see that influence at the end of those deterministic runs.

I should add that climatology kind of doesn't like snow during early December in the valleys. But during the last 15 years, it has allowed for it. Anyway, this was the GMON from yesterday. 22 days in phase 8!

Pretty good 12z run from the 12z GDPS para and 12z Euro(Dr No?!)....

Glad to have you back, man!!!

Pretty chilly 12z suite incoming so far. Triptofan shut me down last night…so I missed the torch! LOL

The 12z Euro trended south and eastward. Overall, was a nice run as was its ensemble.

Happy Thanksgiving, everyone!!! The 12z CMC looks close to something good late in the run.

The Euro Weeklies control run is frigid. The ensembles is obviously smoothed but seasonably cold. @John1122, the late December/early Jan cold snap is evident.

We all are guilty of HOT takes. I will be more than happy for this to happen every time I predict warm weather to occur. I have had some good ones, but this might be a winner from last Friday. The pivot away from BN heights over Tenn Valley has voluminous support both in width and depth in the model world. From ensembles to Weeklies....the trend is towards a standing wave SER over the SE. It can be beaten down, but it immediately returns. Maybe I should have clarified. A standing ridge over...Cuba. ->

Ah, and one last ironic thing which I am noticing(and mentioned yesterday)....I think there is the danger of suppressed systems due to the strength of these air masses. But the souther stream looks active regardless. If we can get 1-2 systems to connect with the cold, we would be in business.