Carvers Gap

For future reference when we come back to this historic warm period, the feature which broke its back is a Nor'easter.

The 6z GFS is looking like it may bring the first frosts to higher elevations in the longer range - d10-15

Welcome heat relief has arrived!!!!

Big changes still on tap for next week. Most modeling and ensembles support that continuing for at least a couple of weeks.

Guidance today is moving to the quicker transition and breakdown of the heat ridge. Ensembles and deterministic models generally have a pretty big change coming. Even the Apple app has me in the 70s next week for highs. The real feels will be almost 25 degrees cooler than this week’s

Jeff, I am gonna need you to calculate the area under each of those curves so that we can better analyze the true capacity of oceanic heat. Energy potential is to be calculated in gigawatts. I got to know if this can power my Delorean back to cooler temps.

That is insane.

It still looks to me like the heat ridge starts to break down just after the 20th. Models were just too quick w/ the initial look. Cosgrove(in his update) mentioned that the Lower 48 may well return to normal or even below for October. I have found the GFS a little better during shoulder season as it will spot cold fronts or cool downs earlier. Models really struggle during fall as there a lot of flux.I do agree that there is potential this could last into the 2nd or 3rd weak of October, but the pattern should run its course by the fourth week of September. Lots of ext guidance has the second half of fall with cool temps. Time will tell.

Jax, you beat me to it. The 12z EPS is depicting a strong EPO/PNA ridge hybrid. That "should" could things off drastically here. Is it temporary? IDK. But we are on schedule for a pattern change right about then. That would open the door for frosts in the valleys and possibly the first flakes above 4k'. Very rough time estimate is Sept 15-17th for the flip. It could be delayed to ~Sept 20th. This could feel sharply different after what we have seen lately.

Looks similar to the CANSIPS IMHO.

Even TRI has been scorching hot. Our real feels have only been 3-4 degrees cooler than you all at times. Boiling hot. Jeff, let's hope the Weeklies today were dealing with feedback. Super torch and prolonged.

Yeah, it has been a furnace. I don't remember September being hot during Nino climatology. I do remember Octobers being cold. We need some cool air. These fall athletes are living in heat purgatory right now. They need a break! Reminds me of La Nina falls. Maybe the atmosphere is just repeating the pattern regardless of ENSO? Warm fall - endless summer. Flip to winter temps, 2-4 week lull, more winter, and short spring? At some point, fall "should" be cloudy and cool if Nino has anything to say about it - minus the flip.

Real feels across the area range from 95-102F. I love September heat - NOT. The Euro teases us with a backdoor cold front d9. Many operationals have had it off/on, and about 1/3 of ensemble members have it... El Nino behaving like a La Nina.

The 12z GFS starts to break down the furnace by about the 15th. It has snow almost in northern Maine at some point during that run. It may be grasping at straws, but there is a glimmer of hope. I think we at least see a few cold fronts being to break the pattern by mid-month. We need a tropical system to break this pattern, but it is tough getting tropical systems anywhere near the US coastline during El Nino. I am really hoping the heat on modeling is feedback. We are entering that timeframe where models will miss the first couple of cold fronts. The GFS tends to do a little better during fall than the Euro in regards to spotting cold. The ridge in the middle of the country has been TOUGH to budge this summer. I know those folks have to be ready for it to depart!

The other thing that I seem to notice during the past decade is that fall is just HOT. It does seem like when we have endless summer...that the ensuing winter features severe cold at some point. Why? I suspect the mechanism which can create the extreme heat during fall also supports extreme cold during winter - strong amplification. Short story...it seems like falls which have extreme heat feature strong amplification during winter at some point. IMBY, it has been pretty rare to see endless summer lead to a non-winter. We will see if the CANSIPS sobers up by October. Its October run often has some skill.