Carvers Gap

Just looking at 12z(Euro) and the 18z GFS, the SE is sitting under a STUBBORN southeast ridge. Pretty much every HP that brings us cool air, slides over to Bermuda, and re-establishes warm, tropical return flow. Today felt like one of those sci-fi movies where the sun was growing hotter over time! El Nino winters "should" place a mean trough over the SE (but w/ poor cold sourcing). Extended summer seems like the recent norm regardless of ENSO. This feels like a La Nina fall with the exception that we have received some rain. Most years, we see the weather "snap" cold later in fall. I think this will be a slow descent into "meh" for December and a good portion of January. Then, I think we could be in business kind of like many 14-15 but less snow. We'll see. I wouldn't be surprised to see some early snow embedded in this warm pattern as crazy as that would seem - some El Nino winters have faux starts. Good to be back. Our family is doing ok. We know my Mom is with the Lord, and not suffering any longer. She fought the good fight and ran a wonderful race. As Jeff noted, she graduated to a place w/ no more suffering, a new home, and a new body. She will be greatly missed, but we will meet again. Thank you all for the notes in the winter spec thread. Those mean a lot.

It should also be noted that at this time of the year, LR ext modeling can be extremely untrustworthy. It can flip on a dime. I thought the tropical system might shake things up(and it still yet might have done that), but the return of the heat ridge is at hand. Let's see if something can knock it down for more than 4-5 days at a time. The Euro Weeklies ext control can sometimes pick up pattern changes. It has extreme blocking in the week 4 range, but not crazy cold temps to go with that blocking. Snowpack in Canada may be well behind normal. This might be a winter where winter arrives mid-late.

Well, it is still freaking hot. LOL. We got a bit of a thankful respite this past weekend, but the furnace doesn't want to quit quite yet. Looks like we have another nice weekend coming up. Leaves IMBY are waaaaaay behind schedule in regards to changing color. Just looking at the Euro weeklies(now daily of course), it looks like a monster block sets up in central Canada. I wouldn't exactly call it HL blocking, but it is gonna have to be dealt with. That block normally surpasses storm tracks but is rarely cold in that location - I could be wrong, but just thinking off the top of my head! It is basically a HB block. On the plus side(like our current temps), it could flip the AO strongly negative(per the control) if it is a bit further north. That could open the door for very cold air(which I don't see on modeling at this time).

Sorry for the long pause. My mom passed away last week after a long illness. She fought the good fight, and ran a great race. She bought me my first weather radio when I was a kid. So, just kind of regrouping mentally. Both the Oct CANSIPS and Euro seasonals are depicting a DJF(March as well) Hudson Bay block. That block can really go either way here in the subforum. Some winters that locks in a pretty cold pattern, and other times(as Jeff has note), we see zonal result. That is a tricky, trick block. It is great for storm tracks, but iffy for cold supply. BN heights are found over the SE for DJFM w/ deepening results found in February. Classic El Nino. That could be snowy and cold, rainy and meh, or a combo of both. Cold sources could be lacking in Canada.

Snow fell in Mammoth Lakes today. That is even early by their standards.

OTH, you get to experience the heartbreaks of winter again with us. I am thankful for that(to have you back! to clarify!) Haha!!!!

I kind of suspected this might not be temporary. LR ensembles are showing the ridge parking itself out West.

For future reference when we come back to this historic warm period, the feature which broke its back is a Nor'easter.

The 6z GFS is looking like it may bring the first frosts to higher elevations in the longer range - d10-15

Welcome heat relief has arrived!!!!

Big changes still on tap for next week. Most modeling and ensembles support that continuing for at least a couple of weeks.

Guidance today is moving to the quicker transition and breakdown of the heat ridge. Ensembles and deterministic models generally have a pretty big change coming. Even the Apple app has me in the 70s next week for highs. The real feels will be almost 25 degrees cooler than this week’s

Jeff, I am gonna need you to calculate the area under each of those curves so that we can better analyze the true capacity of oceanic heat. Energy potential is to be calculated in gigawatts. I got to know if this can power my Delorean back to cooler temps.

That is insane.

It still looks to me like the heat ridge starts to break down just after the 20th. Models were just too quick w/ the initial look. Cosgrove(in his update) mentioned that the Lower 48 may well return to normal or even below for October. I have found the GFS a little better during shoulder season as it will spot cold fronts or cool downs earlier. Models really struggle during fall as there a lot of flux.I do agree that there is potential this could last into the 2nd or 3rd weak of October, but the pattern should run its course by the fourth week of September. Lots of ext guidance has the second half of fall with cool temps. Time will tell.