Carvers Gap

One thing which is nice about this in NE TN(not relief for everyone as has been shared), the drought is getting busted up here. We aren’t there yet, but much better off than during spring and winter.

As Jeff noted, that stalled frontal boundary has reared its ugly head this AM. Bean Station is seeing a lot of heavy rain.

Or winter is just gonna be that warm! LOL. But yeah, i need some seriously lower humidity, Jeff. I am soaked every morning after my run. Just looks like someone took a 5 gallon bucket, and poured over my head. Same deal after mowing. Tags are now spring and summer - you all have high standards for thread tags! If it was Montana, I might leave snow. They started the month out w/ winter storm warnings in SW Montana! Fortunately, the west is getting some much needed monsoonal rains in a few areas. I saw that Mammoth had rain this past week. Not unheard of, but it was plentiful. Portions of MT had flood warnings last week which is kind of nuts out there during the summer. Storms kind of fizzled out in NE TN this evening - so far. I don't mind that. Storms IMBY seem to find a way to get pretty bad on NW flow t-storms during July.....just not NW flow snow during January. But yo....send me some crisp air masses. Central Florida can keep this humidity. It's theirs, and they can have it back!

That line incoming over middle Tenn looks nasty.

If you all are ok with it, I am going to double-up this thread as both spring and summer....since we are already halfway through summer! If you want another thread, let me know. I have already changed the title to Spring/Summer, but I can change it back to spring if needed. All eyes on the line of storms approaching the forum tonight and tomorrow AM.

Batten down the hatches in TRI tomorrow night and Weds AM along with SE KY, SW VA, and the Plateau. MRX has been on top of it today. Severe threat is real. Slight risk of tornadoes with possible strong, straight line winds. 70mph gusts are being mentioned. I do not want to lose power in this heat. Right now it is 80 degrees at TRI at 10:00PM. Heavy rain is also possible. Could extend into the Central Valley.

The "worst" of summer was partially in April! We had all of those highs in the mid and upper 80s. Since then, we have returned to VERY HIGH humidities to accompany relatively normal summer temps. When I go running in the mornings, it is like someone dumped a bucket of water over me by the time I am done. Still working on my winter ideas. This winter is a lean warm, but truly a crap shoot. I tend to think we start slow w/ kind of a meh December with gradually increasing chances. Late Jan to mid Feb seems like the sweet spot regardless of ENSO. I see no real change to that this winter. Somebody from the Plateau eastward could get hammered by an Apps runner or coastal this winter. As for fall, that season just seems hot lately. I do think Nino should temper the excessive heat and maybe bring normal fall temps by late September. Sometimes Nino winters kind of have a false start during October. The heat out West seems to suggest the Nino pattern has begun. Might be a good year for NE ski resorts?

Kind of rainy, cool, very humid day here at TRI. We used to get these a lot. Nice to see them every once in a while. Heavy rains have fallen in the foothills near Greeneville as others have noted.

Rain and humidity. Sure seems like the Nino pattern is starting to show its hand.

Euro seasonals(July version) sure have that flavor.

Thanks for the posts, and great info. Agree on all points. I think I had just moved back to TN from FL(spent two years in purgatory) in 82-83. We had this crazy snow where we got like 4-5" of snow and then it rained...and washed it all away. Seems like the start to that winter was crazy cold. I remember riding through South Knoxville w/ the windows frozen up.

Back from Europe. And, yes! I got to experience THE heat wave. No A/C sucks. Great trip, though. We were in Scandanavia...and still almost hit 99 w/ normal highs of 65! Back to normal for the second half of the trip, and legit felt cold at times. Got back home, and hit another heat wave! Haha - not so much fun. Great trip, the Danish and Swedish people are incredibly respectful, and we are thankful for them sharing their country with us. Great areas, and much less crowded than other places in Europe. Really want to do Iceland. Anyway, I like John's analogs. 47-48' in my post above is a Euro heat wave analog. The summers of 47' and 75' were both record setters in Copenhagen. I am gonna ride those analogs I think. I will probably blend those with John's, and I think we have a pretty good set of analogs. Now, the July 1 CANSIPS......is a beauty yet again. BIG ridge out West for DJFM. Nice cold source. Seems a bit too good to be true, but it's a banger.

Somebody tell me about the winters of 47-48 and 75-76.

I think that is true for this winter…not the last two. Those were pretty strong analog years. But analogs for sure do not decide what comes next. We can agree on that. However, long wave pattern recognition during some weather cycles is not overly difficult. In fact, it might more accurate than d10-15 forecasts. I mean warm with a moderate to strong ENSO cycle. That might be different in middle and west TN. E TN often just watches storm tracks with this va cold front watching. For the past two winters, I felt pretty good about seasonal ideas. This one is tricky. But when in doubt, I go with ENSO. That says AN temps for DJF but with MJO cycles into colder phases at times. Storm track is coastal plain at times.

Cansips looks wrong…but if it is correct, we would be in business. Got a feeling it changes just a bit during future runs. But I hope not.