Carvers Gap

Ground based and airborne cloud seeding. Probably is not a conversation for this thread, but in WY they utilize silver iodide to enhance snowfall in the Salt Range in order to help squeeze out water from systems. I have always wondered how that affects downstream weather, ie the system has less precip after it is treated. I have seen the ground based system in Star Valley, WY. It is near Grover up on a hill. It is the snowiest place in that entire valley. https://cowboystatedaily.com/2022/12/08/not-voodoo-wyoming-expands-cloud-seeding-amid-prolonged-drought/

The biggest thing is that northern stream vortices are out of phase w/ STJ energy. The EURO AIFS shows what happens when they are in phase.

The interesting thing will be this for the weekend. Now that modeling is downplaying the coastal storm...I wonder if the front itself in the Tenn Valley gets a bit more juice added back?

I think three dimensional modeling(forecasts and not radar) like an MRI is what the next big thing will be. I do fear altering weather patterns will also be a part of that matrix. There are already machines which enhance snowfall in western WY. I hope we never reach a time where we know the weather to the point that there are no surprises.

Whew! The new washing machine is installed and operational. Hopefully, no more laundromats for a bit! Though, I am jealous of the speed that a person can do laundry in those places. We washed and dried 6 loads in one hour! I know - Dear Facebook. Modeling continues to honk at very cold weather between the d8-12 mark. Sometimes modeling has overdone the cold at this range. But for now, some really cold temps on the 12z Euro and GEM as Jeff mentioned. Both of those models have identified cold snaps pretty well this season. For now, the day8-10 window looks good for a winter event, but you all know the rules...roughly between the 24th-27th. I do think one flaw that we need to be watchful for...cold has been oversold on modeling all winter OR completely missed. Usually the solution is a cold front, but is modified from the original version. Probably the case this time, but...every once in a while strong cold fronts are under-modeled! The TPV getting trapped looks legit. We need a wave to ride the Arctic front if that front verifies. That is the big ticket! Great discussion. I have enjoyed reading it.

If you get a timeshare on 30A, better make sure it comes with a snow shovel.

I probably won't roll back in here until 12z. I might catch the 0z GFS run....if I am feeling remarkably good. Haha.

I still think it is a very long shot. However, where we are seeing some of these systems rain instead of snow...tells me that modeling is over doing the cold and there is room for this to come north. However, these Gulf snows verify more often than I care to enjoy.

Yes, the mean is well west and into the E TN valley. No idea if it can get this far, but you can see the jog. You asked if this could jog northwest. I do believe the trough could verify north of where it is show currently. If so, this shifts the track.

18z GEFS left. 12z right.

Sure looks to me like the 18z GEFS ensemble members ticked NW.

Let's hope no data collection is done through the Verizon path. I doubt it, but certainly if models go haywire....we know.

The low in the Lakes is the problem. It was behind the system so not sure if it sped up?

12z RGEM was also def a bit warm…looked a bit over cooked.

Got a low parked over the Great Lakes…tearing up thermals. Bet this is still a pretty cold system. Might need that coastal.