Carvers Gap

Haha. The 18z GEFS on WX Bell has found the cold!!! EPO doin’ the work…

The 18z GFS is again honking w/ overrunning and the AIFS Euro is similar. Those tracks and setups will change at this point...but at least modeling is throwing out some good solutions.

TRI ended 2025 w the biggest snow departures in all of E TN. I think Knoxville ended up w/ more which is unusual. I won't be bashful this year if TRI scores some snow.

Shocked...I mean I am shocked that the ensembles have suddenly found cold air on a continent that was without it(on LR modeling) for days. Not really.

The 12z Euro is bringing it. Good 12z suite again. Winter storm on the Euro and upslope on the CMC.

I think some Nina winters are just a struggle to get precip. I think I noted in for my winter ideas (back in June) that fall should be dry. IMBY, we have done ok. West of me....not so much. Some Nina patterns can be the exact opposite of dry. There is a bank of analogs which brings flooding rains after fall and into spring and the next summer. I would expect, especially w/ Nino incoming over the summer, that the drought situation should moderate by late summer at the latest. Modeling has been generally honking that we should see increased moisture over the next two months, but I am not holding my breath as it "appears" they are struggling to handle even the EPO ridge at almost short range.

Significant cooling of all three major non-AI ensembles overnight. Looks to me like a very normal and cold EPO look. Ensembles trended away from putting the trough out West.

Why the good runs at 0z tonight? At first glance, it looks like wx modeling is holding onto the NAO longer. It gets knocked down, but quickly rebuilds. I have noticed over the years that sometimes modeling will mistakenly remove it too quickly. Is that happening now? Maybe. To early to be sure. The NAO is notoriously difficult to model. Good trends though at 0z.

No idea if that will verify, but if anything, the Euro has stuck pretty consistently to this look that it has at 0z. Post 300 is frigid. That is certainly a plausible solution given the EPO ridge. It also fits the 500 pattern that ensembles have been showing for several days, but this run has cold to fill the trough. The 0z GEM has cold embedded as well, and so does the AI Euro. The 0z Euro actually bridges the EPO into Siberia. We take that run 10/10 times. One thing of note...I have noted I prefer the GFS at the end of shoulder season and into December. And not just because it has maintained a more favorable look, but the Euro tends to do a bit better IMHO during mid winter as the long wave pattern stabilizes. Let's see if it continues to lead the way. No promises from me, but it will be interesting to see models "react" to what might well be an EPO ridge about to form. I want to see that ridge build, before really getting overly excited. With modeling struggling this winter, we need to see it inside of d5 which it almost is.

Looks to me like the 0z Euro is about to bring it(cold).

Biggest thorn in LR modeling is a slp in the GL region. Other than that, decent looks after Jan 10. Just need a storm to hookup w/ some cold. I have definitely seen a trend for split flow w/ the EPO ridge. Might be a good sign to see a wetter So Cal in terms of that verifying later on. Getting more precip into the pattern will certainly help our chances. Drought is tough to overcome even if cold.

Looks to me like the transition to an eastern trough is quicker by abut 18-36 hours. I think the first window for snow is Jan 11-12. Likely it is NW flow w/ an outside shot at a wave riding the cold front.

Decent looking 12z suite so far. If modeling isn't seeing cold(as we have seen many times this winter), could be a really good pattern. Overall 500 trends are good. Get that EPO ridge in place, and let's see if we can get cold into those ensuing troughs. The 0z GEM is definitely cold, but rarely isn't!

I have always thought there is a correlation w/ rain in Los Angeles, and eventual snow here....almost as good as the thunder-in-the-mountains rule. The rain at the Rose Bowl made me think of that.

And this goes to show that we weren't just hand out lollipops here. That would be a ridge in the west and a trough in the east. So, if we are wrong...we are in good company.