Carvers Gap

Just looking at the 12z NAM, RGEM, and GFS....I think 0.5-1" of now over NE TN tonight is plausible.

I gotta admit. It feels good out there. After looking the Weeklies 500 pattern for March....I need to bank some warm days. Looks like cold returns after Feb 20th roughly. No guarantees.

I would post these in the storm thread. Honestly, it tells part of the story. When we look back in a few years, it will be great information.

Friday afternoon into Saturday....the 12z Euro continues to advertise a NW flow event. The RGEM at 18z definitely looks snowier...see John's post immediately above this. Is that the 18z RGEM?

The water main break in Fort Sanders is insane. This cold weather is doing a number on infrastructure. Go find some photos of it - WILD.

Usually takes them 1-2 days to input those.

Nope. Major temp bust. 0 was my forecast low. Radiational cooling due to snow pack will undercut many temp forecasts when skies clear. Modeling had this correct...the point and click did not.

There have been only three record lows set during the 2000s at TRI during February. 2026 now holds two of those three records(both sub zero temps). 2015 holds the other. A little bit of history made at TRI to start February.

Looks like TRI actually made it to -7F according to WCYB social media. David Boyd notes that the Feb 1 record was also broken last night as temps hit 1F right before midnight. Two records in one night....

The 12z RGEM puts half a foot in some areas one SW VA Weds-Thursday. @Daniel Boonehas been all over this.

Great find.

We have snow flurries as well.

Wow!!! That is truly impressive.

Looks like KTRI dipped to -6F according to the 3 day weather history. The low which was broken was from 1971(0F), and was TRI's coldest temp in 11 years per David Boyd, a met at WCYB. When we start breaking record lows from the 70s, that is saying something.

Just shuffling through wx maps and the weeklies. It looks like next weekend could be very cold yet again. Then, we warm-up during the second week of February. That has been well advertised and is no surprise. Then, sometime between d17-24 we could have another strong cool down per the Euro weeklies mean and control. That holds for roughly 2-3 weeks. Again, that really fits the winter pattern. But....changing wave lengths have the potential to create more chaos than normal within modeling. We are entering a time frame where LR modeling gets very undependable, even at the long wave level. But I do think roughly sometime between Feb 17-20 looks like the next resupply of very cold air(after this weekend). The NAO will often not be felt by modeling until just a few days prior to it strengthening. It establishes sometime (if models are correct) between Feb 8-9th. Then, I think it takes about 7-10 days for the eastern NA pattern to respond w/ a suppressed storm track.