Carvers Gap

Sure enough, it looks like modeling is trending towards much AN temps during the next 3-4 weeks. We have seen the aforementioned head fake towards cool too many times to count. The one thing in our favor is that E TN is not in a drought. That could help the entire region regardless of drought status as the drought is no forum wide. We will see. Looks like there is another cold front maybe around Sept 20th before modeling really drops the heat hammer. Let's hope that is wrong!

Latest seasonals CANSIPS/Euro are showing a nasty trend towards a juiced SER. I think west of the Apps, we still have our chances. It is almost like modeling is overdoing the Nina. Plenty of time for things to change. The daily CFS seasonal is decent until December.

What are you sitting at for the day?(total)

Knoxville south of I40-75 is on the rain train.

I know exactly where that is! Interestingly, one of my kiddos was just across the street from there about an hour ago. We just finished w/ our second line of storms here in Kingsport. Fortunately, we have been spared the really severe stuff. I did see some reports out of South Knoxville of half dollar size hail - but that is second hand information by me.

***warning has expired*** Tornado warning posted for Oak Ridge and Oliver springs. Box is heading eastward.

I never like going into winter with a drought(if one wants a snowy winter). We are getting more rain this morning, and it is forecast agains this weekend. I mean I can remember recent fall months where we received less than 0.2" of rain at my house total for a 30d timeframe. So, this is welcome.

Good perspective. Yes, the western half of the forum is very dry. This late summer and early fall season has kind of flipped from the recent decadal patterns for the forum area. This is the first time in a very long time that July/August rains have returned to an area where they used to be common(E TN). This recent stretch of La Ninas has thrown a wrench into what used to be NE TN's rainiest month - but not this year.

We had rain all morning. It lasted for 6-7 hours. Honestly, this is not the normal pattern that we are experiencing when compared to the last decade or so with extended summer. Our daytime highs for August finished -3F BN. We hit 90F only twice which is well below normal. We were well AN on rainfall. With the exception of Friday, that pattern appears to continue w/ maybe a ridge rolling through from time to time. The leaves here have started changing. There are some trees behind the bank at the YMCA which are fully red. Now, that isn't the norm, but man. Most of the trees along the river are turning yellow, but maples are definitely starting to show color. That fits with the earlier than normal bird migration. I can attest to the earlier migration as the hawks appeared here about two weeks earlier than last last year - they migrate through here as it is is a flyway. I have seen several in the past couple of weeks. They like my street for whatever reason. Of note, leaf changes have started early here during the past several years - only to pause during September. I would guess right now that the leaves are going to peak 7-14 days early this year when compared to last year, and maybe 5-7 days quicker than the norm. I noticed lots of leaves on the paths which I run on - again, earlier than normal. A prolonged period of warm and dry will pause that process a bit. Most leaves change due to the length of day, but cold mornings will accelerate that change or delay it. The good thing about all of this is that we are unlikely to have to erase large anomalies of heat over NA, and we should have normal to AN ground moisture (comparative to fall) in our region. That soil moisture content alone could allow for cooler temp intrusions earlier in the season. I have to think some part of November and December is gonna be really cold against the norms. Fingers crossed. @Holston_River_Rambler, is gonna have to provide a wooly worm update, or other(elk?) seasonal tells.

The first NCAA football weekend of the year. This fall appears to be beginning at or below normal for temps. I am sure we will have some warmer temps as fall progresses, but what a great way to start it. Carry on

Looks like we may do this all over again in about 8-9 days if modeling is correct. Bout time for a fall thread!

Update, at 7:20AM we indeed tied the record low of 46F at TRI. The original mark was set in 1945. Setting record lows at that time of day isn't uncommon as it is usually coldest right before the sun rises.

Is this one of those winters where we might not have to erase massive AN temperature anomalies across the North American continent before it can get cold? It sure is starting to look like that if LR ext and seasonal modeling is correct.

Mt Leconte hit 38 this morning which is its coldest reading for Aug 27th since records have been kept there beginning in 1988.

Just missed the record low of 46. So far, looks like 48 will be the lowest that we drop at TRI. Update....The coldest WxUnderground station that I can find currently is 47 in KPT at the moment w/ TRI having risen a couple of degrees to 50. On a side note, bird migrations from the north have started early....