Carvers Gap

For kicks and giggles. The 18z AIFS Euro EPS....the bulk of that is after the 23rd. This is definitely on the high end of ensembles. There are other models with much less. I generally like to look at these for storm tracks. Interestingly, the Carolina storm track....most of that doesn't fall w/ the ongoing storm.

I have said that I like the GEPS - para. Pretty big over-running event on that model - several waves. Rain, ice, sleet, snow. Yes, it is 240 and it will likely change, but....this showed up at 18z on other models.

When you begin to see system south of the forum...that generally is not a bad thing. Need room for that to trend north.

Let's see if the Euro AIFS can score a dub...

Unfortunately, CPC now almost entirely refuses to used any 1900s analogs. They broke down on the 6-10 day analog package and was partially used 1994. 2014 was partially incorporated for the 6-10. 2010 was partially used for d8-14. The fly in the ointment is drought. That said, I think the STJ will give us a few chances. The d6-10 window is AN precip FWIW.

CPC d8-14 and d6-10 analog probability maps for temps.

Just looking through the 12z and 18z suites....there is a very strong signal for possible two shots of cold air that could push near zero temps into our forum area. This fits with recent Nina winters. I will wait a couple of days before fully embracing that look, but for now...I would say confidence is growing that very cold air may pay us a visit. Need about 48 hours more of model runs to be sure.

It is probably over done, but there are places in the forum that are projected to be nearly 15-20 degrees BN for a 7 day time frame. There is a 5 day time frame that is over 20 degrees BN. Incredibly impressive numbers. I have to think that we see some severe winter weather somewhere in the forum with that. Very concerned about ice.

18z GFS holds steady with its cold and wintry look.

It is interesting that we had a cold week last week....exactly mirror to last year. On social media, an icy trail showed up from last year on this date.

I am probably not as down on the 12z Euro. I am really just looking to see where the gradient is going to set up. I think the risk has always been that it would jog north. However, there will likely be an ebb and flow to this. Anything can change that gradient at this range. Again, I tend to think S KY is in a prime spot for the first wave of this. Just now digging through the 12z stuff after watching the basketball game.

Yeah, man. No ice over-running. I had enough power outage stuff during Helene. The worst! But probably a good reason to follow ensembles at this point. EURO AI EPS and GEFS at 12z are pretty beefy. I have to imagine individuals within each run are showing some big solutions. I haven't looked yet.

The Euro AIFS EPS is about as beefy as one could get an ensemble for this area.

The 12z GEM and Euro have lots of frozen precip. The west-east gradient appears to be setting up somewhere between I-40 and southern Kentucky.

The 12z GFS has the 0z Euro Arctic outbreak over much of the eastern half of the United States.