Carvers Gap
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0z GEM and GFS maps....
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.3-.4" of ice accretion(using Jeff's 1/3 rule) for Knox on most modeling if not more. Let's hope the lights stay on w/ that type of cold coming in. Roads could be a mess. Not having power is what we need to avoid. We need it to trend to liquid.
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I should add that I pretty much gave up on snow for MBY at lunch. I am fully aware I am tracking sleet and ice w/ a possible front end thump. Hopefully ice amounts moderate.
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Yes, especially when a feature in the STJ makes landfall or a northern vortex finale gets sampled well. For now, it looks like the STJ is going to slam into a very cold area of hp. Looks very icy. Classic over-running setup w/ snow and sleet to lead out...and then another wave to follow.
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0z GEM might have ticked one county north... pretty much the same look as it had at 12z. Steady. Icy.
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Knoxville has 24 hours of frozen precip according to the WxBell algorithm. Hour 69-83. Hour 78-93 is ice. Debatable whether that run would actually flip Knoxville rain just knowing how ZR behaves there from experience. Having done the ice deal in Knoxville during the eary 90s(surprise ice storm that hit right as school started on maybe a Friday)....Knoxville can get stuck at freezing sometimes. Either way...quick thump of snow, sleet, zr, and then rain for Knox. Right around an inch of ZR for TYS and .60-.70 for TRI w/ TRI managing 2" on the front end, then zr, then wrap around snow to end w 6"...doubt that snow total holds. North Georgia gets 2.44" of ZR. SW TN gets the sleet hammer. Chattanooga 1.11" of ice.
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Nope. It could end up that way in reality, but not that run.
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Interestingly, the 0z GFS runs a weak surface low from south Alabama into south/central Georgia and into the Carolina Piedmont to end the storm. Just something to watch w/ future runs. Pretty heavy icing over the eastern 2/3 of the forum. Hammers Atlanta metro. The rain snow axis didn't jump as much as I thought it would. Ice is the story as it was at 12z for all other models. GFS is on board.
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That was a really odd phase out West w/ the northern stream losing symmetry for lack of a better word. Didn't have that parabolic look. Looked like you bent a straw and held it on its side.
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Definitely more amped by the GFS. Looks like a lot of ice.
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By 78, the GFS is doing something wonky w/ the polar jet(squashes the bend like bending a straw a bit to much).
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Maybe and hour or two slower at 63...track looks similar for wave one.
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Out to 60...minute differences to this point when compared to 18z.
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Early in the run, the position of the Baja low(and it may not matter) has been maybe 25-50miles southwest of 18z just based on quick glances at each 500 vort map tonight.
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Big 1054 hp in north, central MT at 30 and 36. HP might be a hair west (could be slower and actually not west). Otherwise. similar to 18z.
