Carvers Gap

12z scorecard. UKMET is deep inland runner and likely too warm. GEM is money track. GFS is more of a coastal but close. ICON is snow showers and light upslope here. If I could wish cast, I would take a blend for MBY.

Indeed. Good catch. How has that model been this winter? Like the GEM, it had almost nothing at 0z. Much bigger and deepening solution. Even w/ the UKMET solution, I would think heights would crash quickly w/ a storm going that big. Maybe a late bloomer? IDK.

Look at the 12z GFS with its wind direction...nearly perfect for northwest facing areas. And this is the "weaker solution" on the 12z GFS.

The 12z GFS does the same thing but further east. Both reach hurricane force in terms of wind strength. Whether we can get in on the action? IDK. However, I would think the northwest flow game behind that would be pretty strong.

The 12z GEM brings that to right at 960 as it runs it up the coast. Look at the sustained winds and gusts. That is hurricane force.

Check out this storm evolution....This is the west side of the cone at this point. That slp track is nearly perfect for E TN. Not trying to leave out our middle and western folks, but this is the track of a huge storm. Again, I think this is an outside chance for E TN....but models have been hinting at this possibility.

The 12z GEM would be a winter storm for the northern Plateau, SE KY, SW VA, NE TN, and WNC at minimum. The ingredients are there. I am not sure it can get back this far west, but the GEM shows one path towards that. This has a chance to be a monster on the coast.

The 12z GEM dumped 72" over portions of DELMARVA.....I have been watching this system for a few days. The 12z GFS backed west but is no threat here, but the trend matters. Not sure it can get back this far w/ 100 hours to go, but the GEM is potent over E TN, especially the mountains. However, lower elevations would be impacted by that solution.

The 12z Canadian is a slightly inland runner or coastal hugger depending on your perspective. Worth watching.

Wow. Weather is such an amazing thing to follow.

I want an 8" dusting of snow. Seriously, we have been watching this cam all day, and just amazed. I cannot imagine the Donner Party in that. Sadly, I think they have a bunch of skiers We just need a "wow" response.

Is that Fiebiger?

Right on time. Absolutely white out conditions on the Wooly cam.

Jed, I would love to see four feet of snow in two days. One day, I am gonna make the trip when the atmospheric river cuts loose out there. I have already told my family that exact thing! John, 4" per our is just incredible. It is humming right now.

Yes, they are closed today. Other than the obvious, the real danger is skiing in deep snow on ungroomed trails. Tree wells and falling off the edge of groomed areas....one can just get buried and suffocate. Plus, right now, they won't operate lifts with that wind. It is absolutely insane right now. We stayed (this summer) about four apartment complexes down the road from the Mammoth cam and it is just crazy how little you can see in that wind driven snow. Pretty much whiteout conditions at 9,000'. I can't imagine what it is between 12,000-14,000' in the Sierra.