87storms

I want to move this panel southeast by 75-100 miles: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam3km&region=us&pkg=z500_vort&runtime=2026012412&fh=30 I’d roll with the euro for the sake of cad, but the problem is clearly the track/strength of this low. Nam just slingshots that residual Baja low into West Virginia. Can see it on the 500 loop. Kinda surprising that we couldn’t have a more entrenched hp in place given today’s Siberia style weather. Guess it’s a nao thing. Still generally like the idea of 4-6” minimum for most, which is enough to cover grass blades (a crucial rubric in grading snowstorms).

Ok after analyzing the 6z euro further it looks like this is approx how much precip falls before the flip… https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=neus&pkg=apcpn24&runtime=2026012406&fh=39 If so, then that would actually be a legitimate pre-sleet thump imby. Surface temps in the mid teens as well.

This is looking like PA’s storm. Several hours of snow turning into sleet is definitely not what I signed up for. Hope that’s not the final outcome because it would be stupid after all this tracking lol. All these northern stream systems and hardly anything in the way of clippers that give us those 1-3/2-4” events is a serious hint as to why we’re struggling to get flush hits here. Maybe it really comes down to a lack of downstream blocking/-nao.

Meh lol. I mean I don’t like when we get our skunk winters, but I’d rather it be a normal one. There’s a reason I don’t live in Chicago.

The upcoming forecast is starting to give off winter ‘94 vibes. Brutally cold for week’s at a time. Feb ‘94 gets mentioned because we were supposed to get a snowstorm, but there was a sneaky warm layer that gave us several inches of pure sleet from start to finish.

I can’t say I’m too excited about next week’s temp forecast. Think I’ll be ready for spring soon.

I like when the world’s best model shows up to 10” of snow imby

Yea I noticed that on recent runs…you can basically follow the lobe of energy from the Baja low and that’s the driving force behind the potential changeover. WV loop is gonna blossom on Sunday once that piece gets near…just gotta see whether it’s too much of a good thing.

It's gonna snow and there's nothing we can do about it.

Side note: The potential blizzard next weekend shown on the 6z gfs looks pretty cool, though. Regarding this storm…nowcasting will be fun…especially the water vapor loop once this system sparks in the Deep South.

I generally preferred this storm to be later to coincide with the next, more rock solid shot of cold, but also didn’t expect the Baja low to unravel like a slingshot towards Pittsburgh lol.

This is giving me Feb 94 vibes, but I hope I’m wrong.

You ain’t lying. I have PI planning next week (healthcare IT) and taking a grad class. Gonna need to play catchup today/tomorrow.

It’s a close shave, no question about it, but does seem like this is one of those systems that could actually trend south instead of north. That’s some stout cold with a reinforcement incoming (just needs to be more incoming lol).

I’m kinda thinking that too tbh. Maybe a subtle tick north. The difference between the models at this point seems like subtle differences in when the phasing with that unraveling Baja low occurs.

Of course it is lol. We're gonna be fine. It's gonna be in the teens and negative dews Saturday evening.

Looks like this run is a little south, almost as if the nam is caving to the euro/gfs. Shocking development.

Interesting. I’ve questioned similar scenarios too when looking at soundings. Didn’t realize it was just connecting the dots at the standard levels.

The most important question at this point is whether to stay up all night Saturday or go to bed early and wake up at 4am to dendrites.

Lol at worrying about the nam at this range. That model almost trends towards the globals near gametime.

Feb 14 is criminally underrated. It ripped even in Bethesda the entire night. I think 10-12” fell.

La Niña de-amp beginning at 0z?

Just started looking beyond our “walking on snow” system. Interesting stuff showing up next weekend to say the least.

Euro is typically steady eddy (so not expecting much change) but I noticed slightly slower start times as the latest trend. Curious if that continues.

Pretty obvious given the low dews leading in that the main model convergence now is on a front end thump (6-10”?) with wildcards thereafter depending on low track, strength of cad, etc.