87storms

I’m looking forward to a pattern that actually favors a consistent return of gom moisture. With the nor’easter, the Atlantic finally said, “I’ll do the job”, though that’s not our best path to victory here. The lack of a stj and gulf influence is by far the number 1 reason for the northern md snow drought. I expect that once El Niño settles we won’t have so much of this nickel and dime, hit or miss stuff.

The bias/variance trade-off in ML is probably one of the most important things anyone can learn when building models. I imagine it’s even more of a factor as model resolution improves and training sets get larger. Would be an interesting topic to explore.

This was the gfs yesterday for today’s system: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=neus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2026022512&fh=30 Talk to me when the euro shows me a snowstorm.

Gfs was pretty atrocious for today’s system until the last minute. Whatever the euro says is still the gold standard imo. Many will disagree, but for mby at least, it also performed better than the gfs for Sunday’s rainstorm.

After 4 months of a statistically cold winter, you’re ready for spring? Unacceptable. That next week system doesn’t look as wavy as I’d like, but nice to see a cutoff low of sorts out west. They still need precip.

It doesn't even look like it's gonna be cold tomorrow.

Choppy weather most of the day here, but finished in premium fashion. Was kinda mild leaving the gym around 630.

The last storm was a disaster here, but I'm still kinda impressed at how much even snow mounds from the plows have melted. The recent mild temps (albeit not really a torch) and rain has done a number on them.

We actually did decent precip-wise in Frederick on Sunday...the problem was it was mostly rain, whereas most of our true busts are expected to be snow, but just lack any significant precip. Not having a strong high to the north really messed up the first part of that storm imo.

Alright Catoctin cloud factory, I'd like to see some prolonged sun today, please. Places further south and east get more snow and less clouds. I'm bitter. Though it does look like some breaks in the clouds to the west incoming.

Shooting hoops on my lunch break and getting a bike ride in after work was a nice consolation prize to getting roughly one inch of accumulating snow from a nor’easter. And I agree re weekend temps. I’m down for a snowstorm, but I don’t need one. Edit: Thought I was in banter. Oops.

I believe it. It’s definitely a subjective, imby sport. Some storms hit me different than others. I might need to get a dog to drag my ass out into the cold more often lol. This winter hasn’t clicked for me because it’s just not what I’ve been craving. I wanted a fresh powder snowstorm to go hiking in, not crunchy stuff (the shoes you recommended seem cool, though) and with all the cold I didn’t get that, which is kinda lame. I know it’s all about making the most of what you can’t control, but that’s what I wanted lol. Winter isn’t done yet, so we’ll see. Otherwise, I have been getting out to shoot hoops and bike at times even in the cold (aside from the Siberia pattern we had for a few weeks).

I’m glad it’s unusual lol. Hard pass on another one any time soon. I want a 4-6”+ snowstorm that doesn’t require monitoring the correlation coefficient radar.

This might be because you were chasing the storms this winter that missed us lol. 2009/10 is the gold standard for epic stretches imo. As far as wall to wall winters, 2013-15 were top shelf. Too many missed opps so far this winter for me to grade it any higher than a B…and imby it’s probably a B-. The frozen lakes were the big show. 2022 was better here.

Don’t tell Frederick…it’ll start activating its snow shield.

I’m ready for spring, but it sure does look like there’s gonna be more chances of snow into March.

Melted really quick here, too. Wanted to drive up to the Watershed, but Hamburg Road was closed. Maybe a tree down, or still slick. I could literally see the difference between my place and 800’, which is 5 minutes up the road. Prob a couple inches there and I imagine several inches at the top of the mountain. One of these days we’ll time the southern stream and a high pressure to the north properly.

The Frederick snow shield is simply too powerful.

Actually, one thing I will kvetch about is that l still need a moderate event for the snowfall contest, so now I may have to invest in one more storm.

Yiddish…or quasi Yiddish. Fun word.

We are who we thought we were.

There’s pros and cons to living in arguably the worst place for snow in the mid-Atlantic. Snow is cool, but not seeing huge mounds of it into April is ok with me, and bike lanes/basketball courts will stay open. As far as precip is concerned…we did pretty well here (and Thursday, too)…which is more important in the grand scheme of drought things. The biggest issue is that it wasn’t cold enough for the daytime waa stuff. I’ve moved on…there’s better things to kvetch about lol.

Miller As are typically more consolidated. Miller Bs tend to have a coastal transfer/screw job. There was upper level energy diving in from the Midwest which was the spark. I agree that it doesn’t need to be all or none, so whatever it was…the cold air took too long to arrive.

It was a redeveloping coastal. Definitely more miller B than A.

Multiple caution flags leading in…it’s late February, not late January; it was mild yesterday; there was no strong high to the north; it was a Miller B; we were relying on the NT that is probably not well understood by most ppl here; and the euro (aka the best model in the world) was meh on this system all week. We need things to be simpler. This one simply required too many things to go right.