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87storms

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  1. 87storms
    Winter has shown its hand. I will not be mountain biking or playing a whole lot of basketball outside and that’s ok. My body needs a break anyway…and snow is awesome. There’ll be breaks and pattern relaxation…we’re not Montana…but yea, we’re 2 months deep now and the base state has been “winter”.
  2. 87storms
    It’s deep winter stuff out there. Looks like our warm up isn’t gonna be all that warm.
  3. 87storms
    Our snowfall forecasts are in trouble.
  4. 87storms
    Looks like a slow tracking period the next few days with some tracking ramping up this weekend for that late week potential.
  5. 87storms
    When it's snowing in Buda and New Orleans, we've got ourselves a winter.
  6. 87storms
    Yea, on the flip side, we’re capable of getting scraped by all of those scenarios lol. We’re not good at extreme weather…that’s just not our location…but otherwise we’re pretty versatile.
  7. 87storms
    Just saw New Orleans is at 3-5" as well. I guess the next question is how much does the pattern relax after this arctic air intrusion. Can we winter it for another 2 months?
  8. 87storms
    Yea, the term AI is loose…even ChatGPT is based off ml, but for forecast models the output is a forecast, not a snippet of Python.
  9. 87storms
    Yea, it’s pretty interesting. Been trying to better understand the math behind svn’s and neural networks. Understanding the loss function and gradient descent are key pieces, but it’s a thick topic, that’s for sure. Anyhow, heard it might snow in New Orleans lol
  10. 87storms
    Have had like 4 decent flurry/snow showers move thru this morning. I’ve noticed mby has had a few of those streamers roll off the Catoctin’s the last few years.
  11. 87storms
    I think the “ai” in this case is more about utilizing ml (data driven vs physics), not so much using ChatGPT to write code.
  12. 87storms
    The euro discussion I attended at ams mentioned ai as more of a hybrid solution, if memory holds (last week was a brain dump). I’d be curious to see how much overfitting would impact the models. Might result in more missed fluke events (just brainstorming).
  13. 87storms
    Can’t blame them lol. There’s gonna be some cool pics coming out of there, assuming the snow delivers.
  14. 87storms
    We might be getting too good at snow to avoid another week of tracking.
  15. 87storms
    You ain’t lying. Was just down there last week. The food was legit. Went to bourbon st one night…it’s like an adult boardwalk lol. I enjoyed Sazerac, though honestly thought beignets were a bit overrated. Pretty impressive turnout for AMS…heard they broke an attendance record.
  16. 87storms
    Aggressive flurry moving thru here rn
  17. 87storms
    Yea, in hindsight, it did dominate on the thermals, but it also showed a jackpot qpf along the fall line during the Sunday 0z run. Not sure if that’s actually what happened…seems like the qpf stripe was closer to Parr’s and the Catoctin’s, though up until 0z it was painting higher qpf there as well. Not sure why it changed it up near gametime, but it goes to show how important it is to understand each model’s bias.
  18. 87storms
    Yea, and I'm not even saying he should be let go. He's obviously built a machine there and isn't responsible for a dropped td, but LJ is on a meaty contract in his prime.
  19. 87storms
    Ravens GM will have Harbaugh decisions to make. You're not gonna want to be an owner paying a player ~250 mil and not make the SB. It's an unfortunate reality in sports.
  20. 87storms
    Tough loss for the Ravens, but also shows the importance of home field adv. Playing in Buffalo is no picnic.
  21. 87storms
    Missed a bunny right there.
  22. 87storms
    Entertaining finish. Ravens are making things very interesting.
  23. 87storms
    I always find it annoying when teams go for 2 when there's still plenty of time left. Now, if the Bills get a TD it's a two possession game.
  24. 87storms
    I only got a little more than you. I think the real screwjob was the fall line. Your analysis makes sense, though...seems like the boundary was a little further nw and maybe why some of those heavier bands along 95 shifted more towards 70.
  25. 87storms
    This low key helps my snowfall forecast...leaves me a little wiggle room lol.
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