87storms
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Acceptable round 1. Saw some towering cumulus while biking earlier (snuck in a ride thinking the trails might be soggy tomorrow). that cell thru Frederick looks very hail’y edit: acceptable as in storms. Obviously not wishing a tornado on people
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13z hrrrrrr seems to like the idea of a lone strong cell moving thru the city, but that's quite a roll of the dice. round 2 has better coverage, but not sure how much remnant cape there will be. it's possible we might want round 1 to be lame.
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the sky is a little sloppy looking so far, but hopefully we can get a couple hours of good clearing. the entire pattern might end up being too chaotic for our neck of the woods. i feel like we do better with soupy, stagnant airmasses with abundant sunshine as a prelude to severe weather. in some ways, it's like winter...we do better with a consolidated system that isn't mucked up by the mountains.
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nam looks awful, but maybe it can improve towards gametime...hopefully starting with 12z.
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i've seen worse hrrr runs. has two lines moving through, albeit a bit choppy.
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I never liked breezy conditions precluding storm chances and today has that, but we’ll see.
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unlike yesterday, there's some decent upper level energy moving through later, though there's also some hints of a dc split of sorts. with the boundary moving south tomorrow, seems like that's another good opportunity, though maybe the last legit one for a few days.
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ideal timing, too
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that's almost always the case with thunderstorms here, unless we're dealing with a ramped up cold front or derecho.
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looks like some clearing to the west moving in, but closer to the m/d line might do better later today.
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There’s the weather surprise... Just heard some thunder, which isn’t a common morning feature around here. It just wants to storm this season.
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i can believe it, but just not seeing much in the way of energy to spark things here. seems like it's further north, but maybe all that residual storminess helps out for wednesday. pretty good storm season so far and it's not even june.
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i like wednesday if we can get into a classic hazy, humid day. i think tomorrow morning is just some leftover scraps, so i'm expecting mostly showers, but weather has surprised me before, so who knows. i do think wednesday has better potential overall.
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cape values look good tomorrow afternoon, but not sure where we get the lift from. wednesday evening seems like it has some potential.
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Not the most inspiring radar atm. Might need to rely on timely popcorn cells.
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Not sure about severe but I like our chances here.
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Definitely some high cloud tops out there
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this is when i'd like to have a rain gauge, but i would say an inch+ was very possible here.
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yea the sky here had that severe weather tint to it
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healthy... https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16§or=ne&band=08&length=12
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highly successful summer-like storm. torrents and some bangers. not a lot of wind here, but these generally overperformed.
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now we're talkin'...
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think we'll be in and out of the clouds until gametime. hopefully enough fuel to keep the line going. there's some lightning with just about the entire line.
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i like that there's already sun (first checkbox) and i like that the airmass is a little stagnant (light breeze). i don't hate our chances for pop ups later...hopefully it won't be too hit/miss.
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This next line has more electricity than the earlier one.