87storms

there appears to be more blocking in canada for that storm as opposed to this upcoming weekend where the system is just cutting through the path of least resistance into the midwest. timing will be key again. may even want that next system to slow down a notch.

Wall of rain. Actually kind of impressive.

It’ll be gusty showers, but wouldn’t be surprised to see local torrents. Bonus for thunder, but I gotta think that’s unlikely.

Gusty showers en route. Windows open. January thaw (let’s pretend we have snow on the ground) in beast mode.

Didn’t want to say it, but I thought h5 looked awful even during the thump scenario. May just need some time for the pattern to shake out.

Classic rain to snow event.

It's the dumbest title ever..probably why you missed it lol, took me a minute to realize it was a storm thread and not a discussion about how bad the pattern is. as far as patterns are concerned, call me one of those who didn't see this coming after what was a pretty chilly start to the season. this is without a doubt as weak of a winter as last year so far (actually weaker because the mid january storm was great). on a side note, i enjoy the outdoors, so if it doesn't snow i'm ok with some hiking/biking weather.

the challenge is putting emotions aside and forecasting based off of pure objectiveness, though there's probably some merit to erring on the side of caution with every potential because it does seem like even the best models are not always on point with the nuances that can cause a busted forecast here (e.g., warm ground, atlantic air, mountains/downsloping, etc.). heck, there's busted forecasts all year 'round. there were many days where sun was forecast and we're left with clouds. happened the other day, too. i still think searching for cold makes more sense here which is also why i think tracking indices is where it's at. precip ain't a thing here...just look outside. at minimum, we get too much cold (not what i enjoy btw) and we end up with side swept clippers.

i think checking the models for digital snow beyond 5 days is still pretty much a time passer without much to show for it, but the oscillations are worth monitoring and +AO/-PNA isn't going to help things. we just need to hope that we enter our wheelhouse of snow (i think it's early jan thru feb) with the indices in our favor, otherwise we're relying even more on luck than normal. as far as dec/march is concerned, i can't imagine global warming is going to help us in that regard considering we're already a fringe snowtown to begin with, though i certainly can see the storms being more robust moving forward, so there's that.

we had such a long run of wet/mild and even hot over the summer that i'm actually impressed we were able to switch so quickly in the fall to a pattern that could even remotely support snow. that said, i feel like we're only at normal/typical now and may need another favorable pattern nudge to get into a wintry pattern. nov/dec were pretty weak in the snow department, but they normally are, so i don't think we've wasted much during that transition period from a record breaking summer to a pattern that could support snow given the right track.

the feb storm was wild. extreme rates overnight that overcame a mild sunday, and knocked out power for days due to the heavy accumulation that stuck to everything. wish some of the historical radars went back that far. that storm is in the KU book as well. the jan storms were more of the powder variety.

i remember it being a bit of a slow starter here in the evening. it wasn't until the coastal took over the next day that the rates were legit.

that storm sucked, but i had a feeling (miller b) that it could be a letdown. i didn't feel confident in march 2001 either considering i was playing basketball in shorts and a tshirt the day before the storm was developing. the march bust from a few years ago was pretty bad in large part due to the timing of it (in a snow drought leading in and knowing that would be the last real chance of the season).

the 500 map at least on the gfs was not very inspiring. the energy in the west just splits off and takes their own path east. need at least a partial phase.

looks like the best forcing is to the nw of the city through northern md, but still clips dc. i'd feel better in loudon/frederick for this one for the elevation as well, but still think dc/bmore should get at least a light snow out of this.

pretty decent moisture fetch: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/conus_band.php?sat=G16&band=08&length=12 gotta fight some dry air, but all systems go for the first legitimate light snow of the season.

Certainly cold enough outside. Probably not much will stick on the roads except under moderate rates but I expect a wintry scene in the morning. Gotta bank on another precip overachiever with the first batch bc precip amounts are somewhat meager.

I still like the every 5-7 year blizzard we get here but I think my preference is 8-12” warning level. Not enough to completely shut things down but enough to feel like it’s a legitimate snowstorm. The one last January here was pretty good.

Think I meant sub posts. I got confuzzled.

I still think you’d find the ratio of snow to precip to not be very good at least closer to the fall line. Our best years have plentiful cold bc we can luck into precip here. We do that part pretty well for the most part. Cold air...not as well. So far this season I feel like we’re on the right side of chilly, but need this type of pattern in Jan/feb as well.

re my comment in the long range thread...give us the cold and we'll find a way to snow at some point. we're veterans at precip. so far, there's a lot to like if you're a fan of winter. me? honestly, i don't like the cold lol, but i know we generally need a sustained colder pattern for snow so i'm willing to negotiate for a few months.

yea i'm just saying skipping around threads can be annoying sometimes lol. there's also sometimes that gray area between relevant chatter and banter. i mean, it's fine as-is, but i do think subthreads wouldn't suck. the idea of replying from one thread into another isn't a bad idea either, but might actually cause too much clutter in banter lol.

i think subthreads wouldn't be a horrible idea. not sure if this board even has that option, but i think that would allow some side chatter without pissing off the mods.

if you're ok with 90% of that being rain like last year than i think that's an ok rationale to take, but i'd rather have cold/dry sprinkled with the occasional snowstorm so that things aren't getting washed away within several days. it feels more like winter that way. we average close to 15" of precip from nov thru march. if even half of that was snow we'd be a ski town. the problem is almost always due to cold air resulting from lower elevation/atlantic air and just generally not being at a high enough latitude. i always tell people to expect 2-3 decent storms per year and that's about it, generally speaking. we snow here, but like others have said we really need things to break right.

i don't know that we need a wound up low. seems like our overrunning events have been mostly over producers for the last year+. not saying that'll pan out this time, but precip has not been an issue for a while now; cold air has.