87storms

Yea that’s a good point re indices. It would end up being the same result since indices are just another way of explaining what the current conditions are. With precip being essentially a weekly event here, I still think tracking cold/overall patterns is a better vibe. Those are the topics I’ve been gravitating towards (pna, nao, etc). With the Pacific being our enemy this year, it sounds like we may need an atmospheric traffic jam to shunt some of that milder air south.

it's an interesting topic, actually. relying on probabilities that far out is also assuming models can accurately portray probabilities that far out. i'm not sure what feeds those stats. if indices play a role in the formulas, then i think that's more reliable than ensembles. otherwise, it's going to change a lot from run to run.

it seems like we're in the "let's see if reverse psychology will make it snow" portion of our snow drought.

i still think the weekend threat has room to move north if that ss vort can slow down a notch, but temps are definitely not ideal. mght need a wrapped up, feb 87 system to succeed with this one. we need a better look up top in regards to cold/hp (where the clippers at??), otherwise we're going to continue wasting precip.

need that NS wave to dig further west

yea, i thought the canadian has handled this system pretty well. a few days ago it was showing the potential for a flatter system/less phasing with the trough being too far east.

no probs. not replying is completely valid in that case. unfortunately, i'm not as good with that as i should be. lol

the blizzard of 2016 was so awesome that i've been ok with a several year meh period of winter, but yea it's time for a snowstorm. at minimum, hopefully next year is a more classic winter.

indeed it is. i scrapped my way through a bs in math from umd and have thought about graduate met programs periodically since i graduated years ago (maybe it would help the quality of my posts lol). having the right professor matters. there were some classes i did well in that most said were difficult (i liked diffeq/linear algebra/stats), but i found calculus based physics to be a grind bc of all the formulas and just not having enough time to excel in it when you've got 4 other tedious classes. you really need to be all in on the met career. i'm in IT now and like others on here, i'm pretty ok with met as a hobby, but who knows what'll happen. oh, and it's the LR thread, so go euro...

never know what people are going through and she could be telling white lies for you all know to cover up something she didn't want to share. i would ack the email and say it's not a big deal, move on, and chalk it up as strike one. let her make the next move, though.

yea, too early to tell. could be a cutter or could get squashed like the canadian. the middle ground shows a storm with workable cold air, so that's a start.

i actually somewhat agree...but i'm trying not to lol. my concern is the amount of room it would have to amplify. i'd like to see a high pressure build in over top of the system to provide a better cold air source. as is, it's attacking a weakening high, so we might just want better phasing with the ns. nice to see a storm, though.

might be a hh run incoming with that feb 1 storm.

that system next week doesn't seem too far off for this area. nice hp in place as well.

this year has been a lot like last year up to this point, but last year we had enough events to get lucky with cold air timing.

i tried dragon's milk a couple months ago. that is one violent stout. haven't tried the one above, but the word bourbon caught my eye.

We need something to track in the short/midrange so we’re not locking in on these phantom LR events. We’re sitting here talking about systems for the following weekend lol. Not many options and it’s all good for analysis, but it’s just too far out. These weather models struggle at times with same day cloudy vs sunny forecasts. 2015 was brought up as a back loaded winter and it was, but there was more cold around and early January produced a few inches from a clipper that year. Hopefully that tide turns soon. Next week does look active, so that’s a start.

oh, i'm not looking at that system. i'm eyeing the trailing/coastal. i think gfs is handling that first wave a little odd. the upper level pattern is a mess.

gfs is more of an apps runner than a cutter. given the competing energy to the north i could see how that system ends up on the southern envelope. that said, the first wave is a week away, so there's gonna be waffling.

i don't think there's really any formula for winters here. i've lived here most of my life and we're good for 2-3 advisory/warning level snows per season. that's my guide for a decent winter. what makes this winter lame so far is that we haven't had a single legit event yet (2-4"+), at least in the cities, and what's even more surprising is the lack of digital snow which tells me we really are in a subpar pattern. however, the 6z gfs does have a bit more activity/fake snow, so maybe that's a sign the pattern is changing. we'll find out in 2 months lol.

agreed. this winter could still end up sneaky in that regard.

would be nice to see the 540 line closer to our lat for a change when a system is encroaching (or a better vort pass), otherwise we need a perfectly timed high pressure to the north. without ample blocking these air masses seem to be getting booted out too soon.

Our snow to rain ratio is generally minor league material, but we’re definitely in a prolonged mild/precip pattern...nearing 2 years of it. Need an atmospheric shuffle. Maybe that’s upcoming for February. Rain in Bethesda, trees/cars glazed. Might actually look kinda cool once this band of precip leaves.

if i was paid to forecast, i'd be pretty concerned about power outages later, at least n/w of the fall line (assuming cad takes longer to erode). even the 3k has temps near freezing when the next batch arrives. obviously, won't be a skating rink, but trees/power line impacts...i could see that.

the track for this system is so bad for this area that even precip is meager. i'm actually surprised we were able to get any snow/sleet at all, regardless of how strong the surface high is. this is a classic freezing rain setup.