87storms

it's shaping up to be a stormy evening. nice sample just moved through...initial gusts, some torrents, and a fair amount of T&L.

the sky had a very south florida look to it today with all the cumulus clouds around. water vapor/satellite/radar all look decent. would have liked to see things pop earlier, but hopefully some of these cells hold together to clear out some of this pollen.

this has been a certifiable soaker. we're good on rain after this...ready for a pattern switch.

turned into a nice day. the temps and humidity combo > the chilly/damp we've had. looks to be setting up for the soaker tomorrow.

also, a couple key stats from last night are boards and fouls. terps got outrebounded by 6 and msu had 11 more fouls which indicates to me right off the bat that msu was the aggressor. i want to see the terps attack more going forward whether it's cowan or any of the other wings. msu also had 9 more assists. i think all of this points back to them being too passive on both sides of the floor. if they stay in attack mode without becoming a bunch of hackboxes, they've got enough talent to play with just about any team because of their court balance.

the offense was yet again too conservative which is a fairly common theme under turgeon. instead of driving and dishing, they play too much iso/hot potato. i'd also like to see cowan scope out the lane more. drive and find the open man. too many times he's getting stripped or blocked at the rim instead of weaving in and out of traffic. if he's going to dribble down the court and hand it off right away, then guys like morsel, wiggins, and ayala need to put the ball on the floor and get to the rim more often. i think they can still make a run, but they can't play this conservative style offense against blue chip teams like msu.

Just saw lightning and heard thunder. That’s a win.

this winter has been rare. no real debate needed there. however, it's not the first time, nor will it be the last. i certainly remember 97/98 being a joke. imo, this winter fits the vibe of the last 2 years which has been anomalous in general with the epic 2018 record-breaking rains and the 60+ 90 degree days this summer (though i don't recall too many extremely hot days except for one which i chose to bike in...that was brutal and not my best decision). long story short, i'd wait until this time next year to get too carried away with analysis paralysis.

bit of a mini, rainer bust in progress.

i think the terps play better when they step on the gas. the court shrinks in the playoffs (ie, march madness), so they need to get to the hoop more and not play so much hot potato. they've got a chance to make a run because of their defense, but they can't play passive against the blue chip squads.

agreed. there really hasn't been much digital snow at all. some of the downplaying of the models are due to storms 7+ days out. unless we're talking a large scale pattern change and/or large storm, it's going to be difficult for models to hone in on that type of chaos at that range. it's impressive enough that we can model storms 3-5 days out with pretty good accuracy already, certainly more accurate than analyzing the sky and drawing medium range forecasts...good luck with that lol.

I experienced similar in killington back in 94, when it was also cold here. Absolutely absurd cold on the mountaintop...way into the negatives and an even more obscene wind chill. Ironically, warmed up the next day and snowed. I definitely had some early frostbite symptoms on my hands but smartly only skied a couple runs.

there's just nothing keeping the cold air locked in...it seems to either get run out of town or trails a rainer. need a perfectly timed setup with cold being so transient.

the trough couldn't be more positive. where's the se ridge when we need it. maybe it nudges a little north towards gametime, but it'll need to nudge quite a bit.

true, and i know he wanted revenge from the lavine contest, which was also pretty epic (though that might have been more 50/50). even though he may not have completely cleared Fall, he showed ridiculous bunnies. i don't see how any judge could score that a 9. not only does it take guts to attempt that, but he got it on the first try.

in other news...aaron gordon should have won the dunk contest. that said, i think he takes the contest a bit too seriously. i could tell by his mannerisms and how he was constantly trying to sell the crowd reaction and judges after just about every dunk. still should have won, though...dude jumped over a 7'5" center. i mean, come on lol.

i don't understand the complaints towards long range model analysis. at the very least, even if a model run is bogus (missing data, etc.), it still offers up the opportunity to practice pattern analysis. not saying that i know much because i don't (4400 posts of mostly play by play and banter), but it's part of the hobby to analyze the different models and teleconnections, and i appreciate those that take a few minutes out of the day to provide their 2 cents on the pattern.

factual outcomes takes zero skill. it's a weather board. forecasts are made. forecasts fail. you, like everyone else, relies on computer models to an extent, and your theory that models haven't improved was already debunked by meteorologists who do this for a living.

new england makes sense. for what you lack in warmer weather, you make up for it with legit winters (usually). not sure if i'd like the extended cold season, though. seems like it can be chilly/gray through april there whereas by mid march i'm usually ready for spring.

we're not the upper midwest or new england. anyone who loves the snow that much is in the wrong spot, period. i don't like the cold enough to sacrifice milder weather for snow. colorado is a near sweet spot, but i love true seasons and lush green. re 17/18 winter...it was a bit subpar around the city imo. we had a storm in march that padded what would have otherwise been lame results. it wouldn't surprise me one iota if northern md faired better. i think what we need is a solid wall to wall winter like 13-15. those were premier winters...top shelf for this area. doesn't have to snow all the way through, but it's been a minute since winter felt like winter for 3 solid months. edit: meant to say 17/18

just saw another post by lwx today that says since 1931/32, every single winter has had colder temperatures. apparently, dc has failed to drop below 22 degrees. i don't have a weather station, but i'm pretty sure we had 1 or 2 nights that were bitter cold. of course, gotta take into account uhi and where they're actually observing. anyhow, that's that. it's been a winter of not being cold enough when we need it to be cold enough.

the argument could be made that we were simply due for a dud. i know...gambler's fallacy, yada yada, but in meterology with cycles/oscillations/etc. being due might have some merit. i think what adds insult to injury for this winter is that aside from that january event last year (which was a great storm imo), we've been on a slide since jan '16. that's a long stretch, so hopefully the pattern shifts. lwx made a fb post in regards to the ++++++++++++AO being the main culprit for this winter's dud. others have said similar obviously, but it was the first time i'd seen lwx make a post about it.

this weather is definitely bringing out the flies, at least where i live. just had to spray down the window seals. mosquitoes were in beast mode 2 summers ago. not as bad last year, but still legit. hopefully that's not going to be the case this year. i also feel like my allergies are kicking up today lol. the argument could be made that we haven't had a winter this year...just a prolonged, late Fall.

i felt like that after playing hoops 2 weeks ago. i've biked some of those trails before. my aunt and uncle live in that area...it's a hidden world back there. the rain is definitely mucking things up for now which sucks because i'm trying to get back into shape as well...been on retirement since november lol i agree with your general theory...if it ain't gonna snow, you gotta find other ways to make things happen.

yea, this winter is a dud. still some time for a snowfall, but it's not a good look when we've had rainer after rainer through our prime climo. what can ya do.