87storms

on the flip side, there was a lot of irrational attention paid to the euro hecs/becs as well. it's just simply too early, one way or another. the only thing that's been pretty obvious is that we don't want the ull to be so far west/north that we end up with a dry slot/late transfer. i find 500 to be the best map to look at (as a hobbyist) this far out. surface maps tend to follow a sketch pattern as the event nears. that said, i'd be real content with a 4-6+" snowfall...this region could use it.

at a glance, it does look like gfs/para "ticked" south, but we might need that pac wave to take more of a southerly route. as is, the trough looks a little too far north/east.

yea, i thought the run looked better at 500 until that showed up. it's too early anyway for snowfall maps and what not at 6-7 days out. certainly looked cold enough. how strong is the primary, how much gulf interaction, trough orientation, where will the coastal form, how much confluence...too early. probably best to focus on the ensembles today.

canadian looks a lot more fun so far.

gfs and para both have the primary a bit too far north for my liking at least, but they both show snow...so there's that. i think we'd want the system to take a more southern route for purposes of coastal development. nice high in place, though.

Would be funny if euro is north. This gfs run isn’t impossible and still 5 days out, but can see that there’s only so much lat for this system to gain, assuming the blocking is as legit as advertised. Still trackable.

The thing that’s stood out to me even on the good gfs runs is that the flow aloft is a bit flatter than I think we’d like out ahead of this. It certainly doesn’t have that hecs look with a deep feed into the gom. Doesn’t mean we can’t get a significant snow but I wonder if a lack of separation from the first system is having an effect. As is, I think we can get by (and might even want) this to be a truly west to east system that favors our lat instead of relying on a wound up coastal.

the first storm looks like it would rely on cad holding on, probably favoring the elevated areas. the 2nd one might just need a storm...looks like plenty of cold air in place.

looks like a potentially decent cad setup on the gfs, especially if the track is further south. as is, it would changeover, but it's over a week out. definitely looks worth tracking.

this winter isn't even in the same class as 2014, much less 2010. in 2010, we had a pattern that was bringing nor'easters and increasingly cold weather beginning in fall '09. so far, this winter reminds me of a more favorable version of last winter, but still not enough cold (which can be seen by the upper level pattern for just about every storm we've tracked). this isn't scientific, but it does seem like it's going to take time to get from the warm/wet (record breaking at that) of 2017/18 to a pattern that brings sustained cold/snow which is why i've been buying into the posts that have mentioned late jan/feb. that just makes sense given that we've had practically no arctic air up to this point. i also think for this area it makes more sense to track cold/blocking/-nao/+pna/etc as opposed to storms. we're a precip town...that part is relatively easy for us, but the cities average a high of low 40s during peak, so we need help to get snow here which is why when you take out the outliers (the every 4-6 year blizzard) the stats are more realistic. it would be nice to just get a clipper/manitoba mauler at this point. someone had said those have decreased in frequency and it does seem that way, though that would also line up with just having less cold around as well the last couple of years instead of a digging northern jet.

haven't read every post here, but i'm not done tracking friday's system. it looks like it unravels a bit on approach, i'm assuming due to confluence/dry air, but that's a close call. january 2010 had a northern fringe system as well that surprised.

I think it’s a mixed bag which is why there’s so many equations that go into these models to begin with. It makes sense that the pacific pattern is not helping by mucking with the amount of cold air that can stay locked into the conus, one of the reasons why the high pressure systems aren’t bringing or maintain frigid cold here yet. But you’re questions are valid. I’d be interested in what others have to say on it.

I think a lot of it has to do with how the atmosphere is an open container (a lot of variables). For example, how high pressure generally brings warmth in the summer versus cold in the winter due to variations in the amount of daylight/net temp loss at night under fair skies etc. Pressure and temp isn’t a direct relationship in that regard, sort of how cad can form even with a bad surface low track. We just need a colder pool of air to tap into at this point...I think.

Looks doable if it’s a “low forming to the south along a stalled out front with cad building in” type of a situation.

wow, i wouldn't have expected that. i had enough time keeping my balance on the scramble when it was sunny and dry lol. and yea, i could see some of the lowland parts being slick. fun trail, though. you have to think while you're on it...reminds me of mountain biking in that regard.

I thought about doing billy goat recently but probably would do B or C. I don't know about those rocks/cliff on A when it's slick lol (i'm assuming that section is closed). great spot, though. blockhouse point is sneaky good, too. tried that one over the summer. it's not technical, but it hits the c and o which adds some flavor to it.

Yea I just meant a low that doesn’t develop too late. I know we can score with stalled out fronts but those Jan 2011 type events are tough here. Too early to tell either way, but it does look like a dynamic system.

If temps start out in the 50s it might be a lot asking for a changeover to accumulating snow, assuming the front is gonna plow through as advertised. Well need a low to develop along the front. Idk if that’s really our setup but would still be cool to end as snow showers or a period of snow.

Pingers making an entrance. Expected

The size of the flakes falling here right now is absurd. Literally 1-2” in diameter

Highly acceptable mid December event. Still snow here but I know what’s incoming. Plenty of season left. Gotta enjoy this for now

Roads are a mess in cabin John area and one of my bball courts is now snow covered so I’ll be entering retirement for a few days. Still coming down here and don’t hear any sleet yet.

been a while. i rock the waterproof merrill's.

i doubt it's all sleet. this is gonna be a piling of a storm for the nw burbs. for mby i'm expecting at least some pingers in that next batch.

looks like its still holding steady for now just south of dc.