87storms

i'm definitely just glad to see snow...it'll be a good start to super bowl sunday. re long range tracking/model hugging...getting too emotionally involved with long range tracking is like getting too emotionally involved with whether your favorite sports team is winning or not. watching sports is fun, but i'd rather learn about it and/or play it. it becomes more fruitful. same with tracking storms...tracking just for the entertainment portion of it is fine (nothing inherently wrong with that), but if you're getting upset about each model run, then you're using it to quell your own fears as opposed to something that can enrich you. (2 cents)

gfs looks like mostly a hold from 6z. maybe even a slightly better qpf output for dc/bmore. at this point, probably just need to hand things off to the next euro run/nam and whatever happens, happens.

nam is inspiring; the latest gfs was not. need any further se shifts to stop and probably could use one more move nw. i don't think light rates will cut it with this storm...we've learned that lesson already. also seeing some hints that there could be a zone in between the better rates closer to the lp track and higher elevations. i think i'd rather be closer to the low track with this one for the best lift and take my risks with temps.

not sure if this is the best map to look at for this system, but the jet streak looks pretty much the same...maybe even better. nam might jump around a bit up to gametime if this is going to be a convective system upon approach.

even 93 started as light rain/mix before the thump. temps were solidly in the 40s the day before and upper 30s overnight. rates will probably be key with this, but the track looks pretty ideal...at least on paper.

true. i think you meant sunday, but same logic applies. i was thinking more wrt the meat of the system. also think the recent snowpack could help with temps right above the surface leading into it.

others can elaborate better, but most of the models i see have the jet streak right overhead, but the differences seem to be at 500. gfs/para has a stronger vort lifting through the tn valley/southeast compared to ukmet/cmc. either way, looks like an ideal low track (could be a little further nw), but rates would certainly help since it'll be a daytime system/borderline temps.

approved

i was in deep creek several years ago and it just sprinkled/misted snow for about 24 hours with some occasional steadier rates. kinda odd to see, but i had limited service so couldn't really see what was going on upstairs.

nam/gfs swing another lobe of ul energy/spin this evening as well. snow showers could be off and on until then.

km, you're obviously a good poster. i was similar as well and i've been trying to stay real objective the last few years, not emotional, etc...but as someone who likes to think he has a moral compass (or tries to lol) it's challenging to see someone get publicly scolded for not doing anything wrong. it's very minor stuff. it's a weather board. granted, there are times where people need to chill out on certain topics...like the ridiculousness of bashing computer models because they're not nailing systems 5 days out...but that's different than just putting someone down you don't even know. most of the time i'm just like whatever, let the mods do their thing, but it's been carrying on throughout the storm. anyway, i wanted to reply here bc i did reply in obs before it got removed.

nah, you did the right thing. the others started the derailing.

nam shows some upper level energy moving through from the northeast later this evening, so maybe that'll enhance another round of snow showers.

respectable finale here. radar still showing some bands rotating through clearly battling some of that drier air to the south. will be interesting to see how long that battle zone/pivot can hold. got a nice little stroll around the park in. sidewalks getting covered again. plenty of ice accretion has turned things crunchy here. snow on ice on snow.

looks like mostly snow here now, albeit light/steady. radar still a bit spotty, but it's gametime for sure.

flakes are mixing in bethesda.

wv loop is showing some of the colder cloud tops moving east. that (should/hopefully) line up with helping to erode the warmer layers.

yea, radarscope is good. i had to switch it to composite at times yesterday just to see some better returns lol. the new lwx radar isn't very inspiring so far. not sure what they're doing with that. someone had asked about finding a radar with a similar storm setup to this one...i feel like feb 10, 2010 isn't all that bad of a comparison at this point: https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=usrad&java=script&mode=archive&frames=60&interval=60&year=2010&month=2&day=9&hour=0&minute=0

the 850 line starts to sag southeast again around midday per the nam. the soundings show a little warm layer there as well. can also see on radar how it's spotty when normally snow gives better returns. hopefully we can switch back by early afternoon because radar doesn't look that bad, esp further northeast towards the m/d line.

That dry slot today was just brutal. Can see it on water vapor all day and it barely moved. It’s even more pronounced now. I’m assuming too much separation between systems and just not an ideal trough orientation. I don’t think a lot of forecasters saw this coming esp considering we had a pretty legit air mass in place fully supportive of snow. It is what it is and there’s still February.

that drier air from nova through central md hasn't budged all day. actually kind of impressive. in hindsight, the gfs is looking pretty solid. it barely wavered all week and consistently had most of the energy further north. still think we can get a few hours of better rates here as things congeal overhead, but yea...can't have a primary that far north and west. if so, then a redeveloping low over the tn valley might have yielded a better outcome.

nam/gfs/cmc all show better lift moving in around 2-3pm. it can be seen on the 850 fgen maps. hopefully that translates to better rates.

water vapor shows that slither of drier air pretty well, but it's been slowly filling in. that might coincide with better radar returns as we get through midday. nothing really surprising about this storm so far. it was always a bit north for central md, but it's also reasonable to think the ccb could nudge further southwest. there's certainly time for that if the coastal forms further south or deepens quicker than expected.

Gfs is still a notch too far north imo for the 95 corridor (to alleviate dry slot and coastal transfer concerns) and has been essentially all week, but it’s close enough and there’s a snowstorm incoming. Gotta think that by tomorrow there’ll be more of a consensus of where the best banding will appear.

the latest nam is like most of the earlier gfs runs with the primary a nudge too far north. that seems to be the big player. i still think a coastal sidewinder is pretty unlikely given the trough setup (neutral/positive), but if h5 is just a little further south i would think that would result in a better latitude for the coastal to develop. feb 10, 2010 did something similar and the capture occurred just in time. still seems like that option is on the table for the dc/bmore/philly corridor, but maybe not hecs-like without a strong feed from the atlantic (trough going negative and a coastal forming off obx/va beach, for example).