87storms

eyeballing 2 inches here.  gulf of mexico moisture overriding cold air is fun.  might need to make an appearance outside shortly with this next band.

These rates are of the business variety.

Classic thump 

it's a thick cold outside.  not bitter, but definitely has that "day before a snow" feel.  pretty obvious this isn't a 100% rain airmass.  hope we can cash in on the goods tomorrow morning before the flip.

the key is how long we can hold off on the sleet.  given the less than ideal setup, i agree with others that are thinking 1-2/2-4 for dc and tbh i wouldn't be suprised if we ping for a few hours after if the cad is strong enough.  the 540 line is all the way up into canada before the precip even gets here.  i know that's not the end all, but i don't recall any setups where that's a good thing.

7 minutes ago, Scraff said:

Pretty much a NAM shit show, but been quite entertaining if I’m being honest. Need the GFS to just chill everyone out though. Speaking of Chill...missing him quite a bit leading into this one. ERS though-you have been crushing it. I think your forecast easily verifies. 

he's the dude. deals with the weenies well, too. i'm assuming he just needed a break. this place is like the streetball of forecasting where everyone is trying to show out lol, but in a world of social media, this place does serve a niche.

2 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

Check it out, a 36-50" band in southern AZ! 

my mom lives in vegas. snowed an inch or two there this morning, which is pretty unusual. guess they aren't done around there.

it's gonna snow on february 20.  enjoy it.  it's getting to be late in the game.

12 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

If you've got the cash, try Glengoyne (I think it's around $50).  I also like the Speyside scotches a lot.  Very briny without the peat.

thanks, i'll keep those in mind because my cousin is going to scotland soon and i told him to bring me back something.  scotch might be like beer for me...i'm picky and i think the peat is similar to the extra hoppy beers that i don't like.  however, for some reason, i haven't met any bourbons that aren't at least drinkable, though i do try to stay away from the ryes.  maybe all this is tied to my general distaste for bitterness.

17 minutes ago, Fozz said:

I wouldn't be surprised if someone ends up with 4"/hour rates. Even a moderate but juiced up storm can have very impressive banding. December 2013 was another one.

yep, some of the biggies have produced up front, coming in like a wall.  93...96...00...03...though interestingly not so much with 09, 10 and 16...they took some time to get going.  temps obviously help as well.

4 hours ago, Jandurin said:

scotch has many different flavors

meh...i've tried it a few times and i get that same peaty flavor that just overwhelms it for me.  bourbon is much more palatable to me.

2 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Surface temps really drop once precip arrives thanks to our low DPs.  Go from 33 at 9z to 29 at 12z.

i think this is gonna be a better run.  high is in a better spot, too.  marginal differences, but it does look a little better (for the city at least).

looks like 7am start time with the thump occurring not too long after.  temps in the upper 20s to start (estimating).

tremendous moisture plume on the nam.

Pd2 was an initial thump as well. If we only get that, then 6” is still within reach, which is what we basically got during the first few hours of that storm.

heineken doesn't taste bad to me at all.  if anything, it just doesn't taste like a true beer.  it's light.

scotch, however, tastes like a bad euro run.

tea is my coffee.  i'm in the "i don't like coffee" group...im also in the "i don't care too much for beer group" as well, especially ipa's.  can't stand the bitterness.  there are some beers i like...i find lagers and porters to be in my zone.  anything too hoppy, though, is just not for me.  

and after all the different bourbons i've tried in the last couple years, i still don't like scotch.

57 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Yeah I keep hoping we hold onto snow much longer and the cold holds longer than expected, but PD2 was much, much colder. I think when it was sleeting at the end of the storm, it was high teens or low 20's in College Park. Unfortunately, the warm air will eventually win with this one, and maybe sooner than later.

i was just peeking at the gfs wind maps and verbatim (though i know things are more complicated than this), the freezing line begins to encroach on the cities by early afternoon at both 850 and 700, so we should have a 6-8 hour window of snow..which is pretty good.  if it takes until mid afternoon, even better.

whatever happens, this should be an interesting storm to track the erosion of cad and transition of precip types.  i'm being serious...it could end up being fairly textbook, so it's a good opportunity for us non-mets to learn a few things about that process.

setup-wise...i think upside is a mini pd2...precip trajectory-wise, it's pretty similar...bust-wise, i think feb 94 comes into play where the prediction was for snow and we ended up with several inches of sleet.  my guess is somewhere in the middle with a few inches of snow with the transitions to follow.  might be difficult to stay majority snow in this case with a retreating airmass.  even pd2 flipped late in the game and this airmass isn't even remotely as strong.

2 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I'm not overly excited lol. Looks pretty dry once the SE ridge weakens and we get colder overall.

The pattern this winter has been a lack of a pattern.  We’ve had to rely on perfect timing.  Looking back I can’t say there’s been any real consistency as far as clippers, cutters, nor’easters, or even cold.  Like the Wizards and Redskins, there’s been a lack of identity.

I think we need the trough to shift further east if we want a clean snowstorm.  That se ridge is not ideal and I would assume it’s mucking with the mid level temps.  On the bright side, if this can turn into a longer duration version of the recent cutter that started out as snow, then we can probably pick up a quick couple of inches in the cities.  

i don't know what to think about the next week tbh.  yea, there's no bowling ball 500 low moving under us, but there's a lot of precip (important part of the equation).  i guess we need to rely on the cad being legit.  the thing that has me uneasy is the lack of arctic air, but that could be a product of the se ridge and/or further west than ideal track of the low.

The only times the negativity really gets to me is when it’s close to gametime or during the event itself.  At that point, it’s like when you’re at the movies trying to enjoy the show and there’s that obnoxious group that won’t stfu.  Otherwise, the emotional aspect of wanting something you have no control over is just part of the game.  I also think a break can be good...for any hobbies really.

something could be brewing for later in the week as well.

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

ICON destroy us

i think gfs might too, or at least be pretty close. that is a lot of qpf.