Mailman

Think they're covering their butts now from May.

Mesoscale Discussion 1383 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Areas affected...Portions of the Ohio River Valley into southern New York Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 231742Z - 231945Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Severe storm risk will gradually increase through the afternoon, with damaging winds being the primary concern. A watch will likely be issued for parts of the area in the next few hours. DISCUSSION...Ahead of a northeast/southwest-oriented cold front draped across the OH River Valley, a corridor of upper 60s to lower 70s dewpoints and pockets of heating will contribute to moderate surface-based instability -- despite poor midlevel lapse rates sampled by 12Z observed soundings. As modest midlevel height falls overspread the region, surface-based thunderstorms should gradually increase in coverage along/ahead of the cold front. Storms should slowly increase in intensity as they track eastward and intercept the destabilizing warm/moist sector. Given ample deep-layer westerly flow/shear (around 35-kt effective shear) roughly perpendicular to the front, a mix of loosely organized clusters and transient supercells are expected. Steepening low-level lapse rates and the enhanced low/midlevel flow will favor locally damaging gusts as the primary concern, especially with any localized upscale growth. However, marginally severe hail and a tornado or two cannot be ruled out, especially with any sustained semi-discrete supercells. A watch (potentially two separate watches) will likely be issued for parts of the area in the next few hours. ..Weinman/Hart.. 06/23/2024

I think today has been hottest day.

Quarter-size hail over at Cal U. They can have it, though.

Thunder/lightning and rain here. Wind wasn't anything noteworthy.

2019, it seems.

Looking a bit cloudy midweek?

Not much of anything here.

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0330 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 514 PM EDT Sun May 26 2024 Areas affected...PortIons of the Upper OH Valley and the Central Appalachians Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 262113Z - 270113Z SUMMARY...A long-lived QLCS with heavy showers and thunderstorms will be crossing through portions of the upper OH Valley and the central Appalachians over the next few hours. Given locally wet antecedent conditions, the rainfall may be enough to cause some instances of flash flooding. DISCUSSION...The latest satellite and radar imagery shows a long-lived and severe QLCS advancing quickly east through portions of the upper OH Valley, and this will be reaching into portions of the central Appalachians over the next couple of hours. The downstream thermodynamic environment across the central Appalachians is moderately unstable with MLCAPE values as high as 1000 to 1500 K/kg across areas of eastern OH/southwest PA and much of WV. However, a stronger pool of instability is noted farther south over eastern TN involving the broader Cumberland Plateau region where some MLCAPE values are as high as 2000 to 3000 J/kg. Rainfall rates with the storms are likely to be highest over areas of eastern TN and far western NC where the greatest instability and concerns for more discrete cell-development ahead of the remaining QLCS will occur over the next few hours. Rainfall rates here will likely approach or exceed 2"/hour, with some spotty 3 to 4 inch totals possible. Farther north across much of WV and into eastern OH and especially southwest PA, the progressive nature of the QLCS will limit overall storm totals to 1 to 2 inches, but there may be some rainfall rates of up to 1 inch in as little as 30 minutes as the initial convective line arrives. The activity should tend to maintain some convective vigor given the downstream instability environment, and areas even east of the Appalachians may see convection survive heading later into the evening hours. Large areas of the central Appalachians in general are rather moist, and portions of northern WV, southeast OH and southwest PA saw heavy rains last evening and overnight which have resulted in elevated streamflows. Given this and the locally rugged terrain helping to enhance runoff further, some localized areas of flash flooding will be possible over the next few hours.

Allegheny County with an EF1. PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT National Weather Service PITTSBURGH PA 339 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024 ...NWS Damage Survey for May 8th 2024 Findlay Township Tornado Event... .Findlay Township tornado... Rating: EF1 Estimated Peak Wind: 105 mph Path Length /statute/: 0.20 miles Path Width /maximum/: 150 yards Fatalities: 0 Injuries: 0 Start Date: 05/08/2024 Start Time: 01:49 AM EDT Start Location: 3 ENE Imperial-Enlow / Allegheny County / PA Start Lat/Lon: 40.4623 / -80.1968 End Date: 05/08/2024 End Time: 01:50 AM EDT End Location: 3 ENE Imperial-Enlow / Allegheny County / PA End Lat/Lon: 40.4607 / -80.1936 Survey Summary: A storm survey performed by the National Weather Service confirmed that a brief EF1 tornado, with maximum winds of 105 MPH, occurred near Aten Road in Findlay Township, just west of I-376. The tornado touched down north of Aten Road, where a trailer on blocks in a parking lot was overturned, with some tree damage nearby. The tornado then progressed southeast, snapping at least 15-20 trees along the northern side of Aten Road. This area represented the strongest damage, where the 105 MPH wind was assigned. A nearby outbuilding lost a metal roof in several pieces. One portion fell on the interstate, while another blew over the interstate and landed roughly a quarter-mile downwind. The tornado caused additional tree damage near the Edgeworth Security and Marriot hotel buildings. The tornado likely then lifted, as no other appreciable damage was noted other than the previously noted roof pieces that were blown downstream. &&

Not much of anything down this way, either.

Mesoscale Discussion 0472 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024 Areas affected...extreme eastern IN...much of OH...and western PA Concerning...Tornado Watch 122... Valid 171812Z - 171945Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 122 continues. SUMMARY...Storms moving into northwest OH may intensify the next 1-2 hours. All severe hazards remain possible across Tornado Watch 122. A downstream watch will likely be needed in the next couple of hours across eastern OH into western PA. DISCUSSION...Convection has slowly intensified into early afternoon as storms move into a somewhat more unstable airmass. Stronger heating has allowed low-level lapse rates to steepen ahead of the line of convection. This will support potential for increasing gusts. Furthermore, low-level instability remains quite large, with 0-3 km MLCAPE greater than 125 J/kg. Regional VWP data shows enlarged, and favorably curved low-level hodographs, and low-level rotation has been noted in velocity signatures via region radars. Further intensification of these cells is expected over the next couple hours across northwest into central Ohio. As convection continues eastward, a similar environment is expected to extend across parts of eastern OH into western PA. A downstream watch will likely be needed by 20z/4pm EDT. ..Leitman.. 04/17/2024

Hmmmm. The activity around Canton is dissipating.

Flash Flood Emergency. BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Flash Flood Warning National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 707 PM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024 ...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR OAKDALE AND CORAOPOLIS... The National Weather Service in Pittsburgh has issued a * Flash Flood Warning for... West Central Allegheny County in southwestern Pennsylvania... North Central Washington County in southwestern Pennsylvania... * Until midnight EDT tonight. * At 707 PM EDT, local law enforcement reported thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between 2 and 3.5 inches of rain have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing. FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY for Oakdale and Coraopolis. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW! HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing flash flooding. SOURCE...Law enforcement reported significant flooding in Oakdale. IMPACT...This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW! Life threatening flash flooding of low water crossings, small creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses. * Some locations that will experience flash flooding include... Robinson Township, Cecil-Bishop, Kennedy Township, Coraopolis, Imperial, McDonald, Sturgeon-Noblestown, Oakdale, Glen Osborne, Glenfield, Haysville, North Fayette Township, Enlow, South Fayette Township, Collier Township and Midway. This includes the Parkway between mile markers 57 and 60. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Move to higher ground now! This is an extremely dangerous and life-threatening situation. Do not attempt to travel unless you are fleeing an area subject to flooding or under an evacuation order. Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.

Just seems to have been a flood event for the most part.

Shaved moderate risk to the west a bit.

It actually looked like it was filling in.

Looking forward to an early spring, honestly. Snow in March doesn't do much for me.