Mailman

GFS seems to be getting better for late week. Needs some support, however.

Looks like we might be in for a long week of tracking.

Saturday-Sunday.

Different outputs on the 12z Euro. Pivotal shows rain/zr at 126h. WxBell shows the white stuff at 126h. What's it gonna be?

Well.. if there's a model you want to be by itself on a good solution, it's the Euro.

Euro is interesting for next weekend. Certainly an improvement.

12z Euro coming in with the white stuff on Tuesday. Looking like a change-over, though.

I see we got NAM'd for tomorrow.

Euro giving us something to track a week out.

Just a dusting here.

KDKA Winter Forecast, if you're into that sort of thing... https://pittsburgh.cbslocal.com/2019/11/04/meteorologist-ray-petelin-winter-weather-forecast-2019-2020/

Seems as though PivotalWeather is offering Euro maps for nothing. Wonder how long that'll last. I see a lot of below normal temps coming in the next couple weeks. Hope it isn't all for nothing in November.

Mesoscale Discussion 2128 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1012 AM CDT Thu Oct 31 2019 Areas affected...Parts of eastern North Carolina...northeastern Tennessee...southwestern Virginia...far eastern Kentucky...West Virginia and southwestern Pennsylvania Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 311512Z - 311715Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...A more substantial increase in potential for severe wind gusts, and perhaps isolated tornadoes, is expected with a developing line of storms during the 1-3 PM EDT time frame. One or more watches probably will be needed within the next couple of hours. DISCUSSION...Although mid/upper-level lapse rates across much of the region are more or less moist adiabatic, latest objective analysis suggests that boundary layer warming and moistening are contributing to at least weak destabilization along the western slopes of the Allegheny Mountains. Mixed-layer CAPE may not become much more than roughly 500 J/kg, but this is expected to occur in the presence of strengthening lower/mid tropospheric wind fields, as deepening of the surface cyclone (now centered near Columbus OH) proceeds more rapidly through early to mid afternoon. Model forecast soundings indicate south to southwesterly flow intensifying to 50-70+ kt, just off the surface through around 500 mb, as the strengthening surface cold front advances toward the Alleghenies. This is expected to coincide with increasing lift along/ahead of the cold front, aided by forcing for upward vertical motion ahead of a vigorous short wave trough gradually pivoting east of the the Mississippi Valley, to support an intensifying line of thunderstorms. It is possible that this may be gradually underway across parts of northeastern Tennessee through eastern Kentucky and southeastern Ohio, but a more notable increase/intensification seems more likely during the 17-19Z time frame, before gradually spreading eastward into/through the Appalachians. As convection intensifies, downward momentum transport in downdrafts will contribute to increasing potential for damaging convective surface gusts. Large low-level hodographs could also support supercell structures along and perhaps just ahead of the developing line of storms, with a risk for tornadoes. ..Kerr/Grams.. 10/31/2019

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 259 PM EDT Thu Aug 15 2019 The National Weather Service in Pittsburgh has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Southeastern Allegheny County in southwestern Pennsylvania... * Until 345 PM EDT. * At 259 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Mount Lebanon, moving southeast at 10 mph. HAZARD...Wind gusts to 60 mph. SOURCE...Radar. IMPACT...Expect damage to trees and power lines, resulting in some power outages. * Locations impacted include... Pittsburgh... Mount Lebanon... Bethel Park... McKeesport... West Mifflin... Baldwin... Upper St. Clair... Scott Township... Whitehall... South Park Township... Munhall... Jefferson Hills... This includes Interstate 376 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 67 and 71, and near mile marker 73. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. Please report severe weather by calling 412-262-1988, posting to the NWS Pittsburgh Facebook page, or using Twitter @NWSPITTSBURGH.

Guess it's going to get fairly warm after the remnants of Barry roll through. Personally, I think a bigger deal is being made out of it than need be. But hey.. I like it when people are talking about the weather.

Mesoscale Discussion 1395 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 PM CDT Sat Jul 06 2019 Areas affected...Portions of IN...far southern Lower MI...OH...WV...western PA...and far northern KY Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 061836Z - 062100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Very isolated instances of gusty winds could occur through the rest of the afternoon into the early evening. Watch issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...A very weak perturbation embedded within mid-level westerly flow has encouraged scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon across parts of northern/central IN into northwestern OH along and south of a cold front. With a moderately unstable airmass in place across this region, these storms will be capable of producing gusty winds perhaps up to 35-40 kt, as observed by a wind gust to 36 kt around 17Z at KDFI in northwestern OH. Regardless, no more than 15-25 kt of westerly flow is present from the surface through about 6 km AGL per area VWPs and recent mesoanalysis estimates. This will limit any meaningful bulk shear and potential for greater updraft organization. Still, very isolated instances of strong/gusty downdraft winds capable of producing mainly tree damage cannot be ruled out through the rest of the afternoon into the early evening as storms move generally east-southeastward across portions of the OH Valley into the Appalachians where instability is maximized. ..Gleason/Thompson.. 07/06/2019

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 415 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2019 The National Weather Service in Pittsburgh has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Southeastern Allegheny County in southwestern Pennsylvania... * Until 500 PM EDT. * At 415 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Brentwood, or near Pittsburgh, moving northeast at 15 mph. HAZARD...Wind gusts to 60 mph and quarter-size hail. SOURCE...Radar. IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vehicles is possible. Expect wind damage to trees and power lines, resulting in some power outages. * Locations impacted include... Pittsburgh... Penn Hills... Mount Lebanon... Bethel Park... Monroeville... McKeesport... Plum... West Mifflin... North Side Pittsburgh... Baldwin... Wilkinsburg... Whitehall... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Seek shelter indoors and stay away from windows. Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm and may lead to flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. Please report severe weather by calling 412-262-1988, posting to the NWS Pittsburgh Facebook page, or using Twitter @NWSPITTSBURGH.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 440 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 335 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Ohio Western Pennsylvania Northern West Virginia * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 335 PM until 1000 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms over Ohio will track northeastward across the watch area this afternoon, with an increasing risk of damaging winds in the strongest cells. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles north and south of a line from 25 miles north northwest of Zanesville OH to 25 miles northeast of Latrobe PA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 439... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Hart

Mesoscale Discussion 1230 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1048 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019 Areas affected...Portions of central/eastern KY...southwestern VA...western/central WV...much of OH...and southwestern PA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 241548Z - 241745Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms capable of producing mainly damaging winds appear increasingly likely this afternoon. Watch issuance is likely by 18Z (1 PM CDT/2 PM EDT). DISCUSSION...A well-formed MCV from earlier convection will continue quickly northeastward from middle TN into central/eastern KY this afternoon. Clouds have mostly cleared across eastern KY into southern OH late this morning, and diurnal heating will allow for a rapid increase in instability early this afternoon with a very moist low-level airmass in place. MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg appears likely through peak heating, with more cloud cover over eastern OH, northern WV, and western PA delaying destabilization until a bit later this afternoon as clouds decrease in coverage from southwest to northeast. Around 35-50 kt of mid-level flow will be present across these regions in association with both the MCV and a larger-scale upper trough moving over the TN/OH Valleys. One or more thunderstorm clusters will likely develop over central/eastern KY and move northeastward through the afternoon and early evening, posing mainly a scattered damaging wind threat. There is also some concern for isolated tornadoes in proximity to the circulation of the MCV, where low-level flow should be locally backed to southeasterly. This will potentially enhance 0-1 km SRH, and any initially more discrete storm development could produce a tornado. With convection beginning to strengthen along the TN/KY border into eastern KY, watch issuance is likely within the next couple of hours (by 18Z). ..Gleason/Hart.. 06/24/2019

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0457 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 303 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2019 Areas affected...Mid-Atlantic Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 191902Z - 200102Z Summary...Developing thunderstorms along a west/east boundary this afternoon will be capable of producing heavy rainfall and hourly totals 1-2". Some localized flash flooding will be possible. Discussion...Surface analysis this afternoon showed a weak area of low pressure across northwest PA with a warm front through northern PA. A weak trough was analyzed along the Appalachians. These boundaries...combined with daytime heating...is contributing to scattered/numerous thunderstorms that are slowly moving east/northeast. The environment is characterized by MLCAPE of around 1000 J/kg along a zone of favorable effective shear (30-35 kts). Recent blended TPW product imagery showed values 1.5 to 1.7" across much of PA. Overall, the latest hi-res guidance is in good agreement showing several west to east swaths of heavy rainfall through 01z, with amounts of 1-3" most likely. The 12z HREF probabilities of hourly QPF exceeding 2 inches peaking in the late afternoon (22-00z) with values of 20-40 percent, mostly over south-central PA. There is slight signal for 3" in 1 hour across the same area as well. Much of the outlook area is relatively wet with the 7-day departures being 200-400 percent of normal. This has contributed to higher than normal streamflow and soil saturation as well as lower FFG values which could be met with the hourly rates. As such, some instances of flash flooding will be possible, especially across urban/sensitive areas this afternoon into the early evening hours. Taylor

Mesoscale Discussion 0881 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1106 AM CDT Wed May 29 2019 Areas affected...Portions of eastern OH...the northern WV Panhandle...much of PA...and NJ Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 291606Z - 291730Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon. Large hail and damaging winds should be the main threats, but isolated tornadoes will also be possible. Watch issuance is likely by 17Z (1 PM EDT). DISCUSSION...A shortwave trough over central OH and Lake Erie at 16Z will move eastward today across PA and vicinity. Isolated thunderstorms have recently initiated across central OH and northwestern PA in association with this feature. A belt of strong 50-65 kt mid-level westerly winds will be present across eastern OH, much of PA, and NJ today. Long, nearly straight hodographs through mid levels and related 40-50 kt of effective bulk shear should favor scattered splitting supercells early this afternoon. Large hail will probably be the initial concern with this convection, with some increase in the damaging wind threat with time as storms potentially congeal into one or more bowing line segments as they move east-southeastward across PA into NJ. A marine front located over the NYC metro area and adjacent northern NJ will likely limit the northeastern extent of the substantial severe threat this afternoon. In addition to the large hail and damaging wind risk, isolated tornadoes could also occur over mainly parts of central/eastern PA into portions of NJ to the east of a weak surface low where low-level southwesterly winds are forecast to be somewhat stronger. Watch issuance will likely be needed across this region by 17Z (1 PM EDT). ..Gleason/Thompson.. 05/29/2019