Mailman

NAM looking good.

KPIT SREF Plume (15z -- mean 7.4"):

Hmph. Just not enough liquid here.

High res NAM (still snowing at 60h):

NAM definitely doesn't have surface temp issues.

Their discussion is conservative, as well. I miss Fries. .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Building high pressure on the van of deepening Plains low pres will bring dry weather for Tuesday with near-average temperature. That split-flow low is projected to dig over the Midwest by Wednesday and shunt a swath of mid level moisture over the Upper Ohio. Transient left-exit and coupled jet support are progged to generate broad ascent to support categorical POPs on Wednesday, mainly in the form of snow. System progression and temperature profile will be the inhibitors for snow acccumulation over much of the area as mid level warm advection degrades dendritic growth potential and as boundary layer warmth (32-34F) reduces impact potential. Nevertheless, an accumulation of heavy, wet snow is expected but with primary impact limited to the ridge-areas where a Winter Storm Watch remains in effect.

Seems to be the best Euro run for us since Friday night.

Euro seems to be a little bit of an improvement from 0z.

Canadian has cut our totals in half from 0z.

Not speaking specifically to this sub forum, but feels like there will be a lot of disappointment across the board with this one.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... High pressure will build ewd from MI in the wake of the daytime wave. Modest potential for light lake-enhanced snow showers to the north of I-80 lingers this evening for a few hours before dry air and subsidence erode any remaining CAPE. High pressure will remain dominant through Tue eve as a strong low develops in the Plains. As this Plains low advances ewd toward the Ohio Valley, coastal low pressure will strengthen considerably as an upper-level jet advances ewd. Strong upward motion associated with the left exit region of this jet/possible pairing with a secondary jet's right entrance region will favor high precipitation rates Wed afternoon and early eve, especially across the sern half of the forecast area. While precipitation rates will be high and vertical motion will be strong through the dendritic growth zone, increasing warmth aloft and sfc temperature in the 32-34F range will reduce snow ratios a bit, leading to a heavy, wet snow. The highest totals will occur se of a line from DUJ-CKB, where upward motion will be maximized and terrain will facilitate colder low-level temp. There will be a sharp gradient in higher totals nw from this axis, but snow is expected in all locales at some point on Wed aftn. A Winter Storm Watch is in effect for Wed/Wed night focused especially on the ridge zones, where highest totals and impactful heavy, wet snow are expected. An advisory likely will be needed adjacent to these zones, which will be highlighted in the HWO.

NAM'd.

PBZ has 2-3" area-wide thru 7:00pm Wednesday.

GFS looking a little bit better compared to previous runs for precip on our side of the state.

Still plenty of time to go. Not sure if I'd wanna be in the bullseye at this point or not.

Apparently, there were a lot of good hits on the Euro ensembles. 15-25% chance of a foot in our area. I'll take that. 50-60% for 6+. Can live with that, too.

Things seem to be looking a bit better for the area, at this time.

Looks like most of the excitement next week will be off to the east.

4" here. So right on the higher end of what was projected for me. I'll take that on December 1st any year.

Approaching a modest 3" here.

Everyone under an advisory now.