Mailman

Still three days away... .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - Weekend severe weather potential and flooding potential. - A brief cooldown Monday, with a warmup into mid-week. ------------------------------------------------------------------- There is increasing confidence in the next disturbance passing through this weekend. The most likely timing remains, Saturday for the warm front, with a strong pressure gradient Saturday afternoon with enhanced low level flow in the warm sector. This will need to continue to be monitored for severe development, with ensemble plumes fairly confident on buoyancy, but unsure on just how much. This might suggest a primary threat of damaging winds. The main cold front is most likely to pass late Saturday into early Sunday. Rainfall amounts are quite variable, between 0.5 and 1.5 inches between the 25th and 75th percentile. Marginal flooding conditions are also possible as the cold front slowly moves through. Synoptic winds are also forecast at 20 to 30 mph (25th to 75th percentile). Behind the cold front, a brief cool down to near-normal is expected with moderate confidence, followed by a warm-up back above normal by mid-week.

GFS out of nowhere.

Didn't know thunderstorms were on the menu for today.

Try to cheer you folks up...

Yeah.. it was coming down at a good clip here about 10 minutes ago.

Couple inches out there. Not bad.

Can report light snow here, as well.

Ended up with 5.5". Can't complain.

I was at 4.5" about an hour ago.

I'd say close to 3" here.

Trends aren't out friends.

Ah yeah.

GFS has the warm tongue looming on Monday.

Gonna have to get lucky with a squall to get some accumulation down here.

Rain/snow mix here this morning.

Might have a little something in the air in about a week.

A little wind and rain down this way. Nothing too drastic. Friday, however, is looking rather wet. Not looking forward to that at all.

But what do I know... US National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 4:10 PM - There is a lull in activity over eastern OH into western PA, but we're expecting some environmental "recovery" in the next hour or so as clouds break across the area. Isolated to scattered storms may redevelop in this area in the next several hours, so the Watch continues.

The activity that was to my southwest dissipated. Think the storm that was up (well downstream) the river had some impact locally. Won't complain.

Mesoscale Discussion 1472 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1103 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Areas affected...Portions of OH...northern WV...and western PA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 291603Z - 291800Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity over the next few hours. Damaging gusts will be the main hazard with this activity, though a tornado or two also may occur. Timing of watch issuance is uncertain, but area is being monitored for watch issuance within the next couple of hours. DISCUSSION...Isolated convection has been slowly increasing along the leading edge of an area showers left over from overnight/early morning convection moving into northern/central OH. Rich boundary-layer moisture is in place, with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F noted in morning observations. Widespread cloudiness is limiting heating, and temperatures are generally in the upper 70s to near 80F. With time, pockets of stronger destabilization are expected into afternoon, with downstream destabilization expected into parts of northern VA/western PA by early to mid-afternoon. However, cloud cover and poor lapse rates may limit more widespread stronger instability. Nevertheless, vertical shear will be sufficient for transient supercells and bands of bowing segments. Damaging gusts will be the main hazard with convection through the afternoon and into early evening. While low-level shear will remain somewhat weak, vertically veering profiles will result in somewhat enlarge and curved low-level hodographs suitable for a tornado or two in addition to damaging gust potential. Additional convection is possible into the evening hours as the synoptic cold front (currently over northern IL) shifts east/southeast across the area. As a result, multiple bands/rounds of strong/severe storms are possible. Timing of watch issuance is a bit uncertain, but the trends will continue to be monitored for possible watch issuance within the next couple of hours. ..Leitman/Gleason.. 06/29/2024

Looks like they got it pretty good in portions of Westmoreland.