cbmclean
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Everything posted by cbmclean
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Thanks Bob. I know my climo. I have no pretensions. Just would like to get on the board this year after two straight dead ratters. Looking at the ensembles at the end of their range, none look truly bad. GEFS seems to look worst, GEPS and EPS look better. Right now no epic looks.
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Well that's a fookin buzzkill.
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Hey no, stealing our snow! Seriously though as a guest from the SE forum I am really happy it look slike many of you will get the goods starting tomorrow. I hope you clean up this winter snow on snow on snow... Once you're satiated though, could you send a few crumbs our way? We've been baaaaaaaad off...
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That's always the most likely outcome. Previously, every once in a while the fail failed to fail and we got hit. Can that still happen going forward? TBD. But this looks like the best chance we've had in a while. Best is relative though. Still more likely to fail than not.
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I thought you'd be taller.
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I'd allow it.
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Did you turn your weather-block software off?
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And I thought the FV3 was the new GFS!
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I thought the NAM was a high result ion GFS?
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0Z GEFS and GEPS both show an eastern conus trough at the end. I didn't like the look on the 0Z Euro at 384 but maybe it was just reloading? Edit: not sure what I was looking at but the 0Z EPS look snot bad at 360...
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Well we can have BN temps and AN precip...just not at the same time.
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I wonder if Eric Webb will make hay with the NAM sleet fest. He's been very downish on this threat for the MA. Today he hurt my feelings by raising the specter of Jan 2017 when central-eastern NC had a solid event forecast and at the last minute the NAM sniffed out a warm nose that reduced our 6 - 9" to maybe 1" of sleet and freezing drizzle.
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18z euro weenies emboldened for snow Webb says Bah Humbug
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Eric Webb has made it his personal mission to deb this storm for the midatlantic. Will be interesting to see to see how it shake sout.
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Is now a good time to break out my rolling model review via Haiku into the storm thread?
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Curious, is there any meaningful "parent-child" relationship between the ECMWF and the ECMWF AI, besides they fact that they are created by the ECMWF? It seems like any data-driven AI model would be completely different from any numerical integration model.
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@psuhoffman How are the snow and temps up in British Columbia?
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He's from NC originally (very close to where I am from actually) but not sure where he he is physically located now. His demeanor can be offputtingly smug but he is ignored at peril. He seems to know his stuff as annoying as it can be sometimes. On the flipside he was one of the first people I remember to seriously beat on the -EPO drum for this winter.
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echo
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The PBP has my head spinning. So the 50/50 low is too strong?
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Oh wait, now we need a suppressed cutter.
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Well, we found a new way to fail: introducing the "suppressed cutter".
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Change name to what?
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January: Medium/ Long Range: May the Force be with Us....
cbmclean replied to Weather Will's topic in Mid Atlantic
You're probably thinking of Jan 2018? Super cold snap, almost too suppressed for down here!! -
Make sure to secure the shield generator.
