cbmclean

0Z GEFS and GEPS both show an eastern conus trough at the end. I didn't like the look on the 0Z Euro at 384 but maybe it was just reloading? Edit: not sure what I was looking at but the 0Z EPS look snot bad at 360...

Well we can have BN temps and AN precip...just not at the same time.

I wonder if Eric Webb will make hay with the NAM sleet fest. He's been very downish on this threat for the MA. Today he hurt my feelings by raising the specter of Jan 2017 when central-eastern NC had a solid event forecast and at the last minute the NAM sniffed out a warm nose that reduced our 6 - 9" to maybe 1" of sleet and freezing drizzle.

18z euro weenies emboldened for snow Webb says Bah Humbug

Eric Webb has made it his personal mission to deb this storm for the midatlantic. Will be interesting to see to see how it shake sout.

Is now a good time to break out my rolling model review via Haiku into the storm thread?

Curious, is there any meaningful "parent-child" relationship between the ECMWF and the ECMWF AI, besides they fact that they are created by the ECMWF? It seems like any data-driven AI model would be completely different from any numerical integration model.

@psuhoffman How are the snow and temps up in British Columbia?

He's from NC originally (very close to where I am from actually) but not sure where he he is physically located now. His demeanor can be offputtingly smug but he is ignored at peril. He seems to know his stuff as annoying as it can be sometimes. On the flipside he was one of the first people I remember to seriously beat on the -EPO drum for this winter.

echo

The PBP has my head spinning. So the 50/50 low is too strong?

Oh wait, now we need a suppressed cutter.

Well, we found a new way to fail: introducing the "suppressed cutter".

Change name to what?

You're probably thinking of Jan 2018? Super cold snap, almost too suppressed for down here!!

Make sure to secure the shield generator.

It would be acceptable.

Even if they happen while you are on vacation?

Squall line just hitting Fayetteville.

Are posting from an airplane flying to Canada?

How about a Saskatchewan Scooter?

We're in the midst of the most disgusting multi-year snow drought in recorded history. We're like a lifeboat full of starving shipwreck survivors and in the distance we see what looks like an island with a Golden Corral on it. There's only so much restraint you can expect. But I do worry. Things look good now, but it could all fall apart. Heck it doesn't even have to fall apart; it could just be one of those good patterns where the timing is off and the potential gets wasted. It's happened before and it will happen again. We have so much emotionally invested in this now the potential for disappointment is yuuuuuge.

I'm setting up my lawn chair and my umbrella in a choice location on Panic Beach. The modeling can only go down from here.

What indicates a split flow in that H5 plot? I just see a Baja-to North Pole ridge which I would have though would block the STJ...

Is that your old avatar?