cbmclean

Really more of a banter post but maybe you guys will indulge me. Realities that I need to learn to accept . 1. There is nothing remotely fallish about September now. It is August part deux. 2. December is a fall month (except for random episodes like our early snow last year) 3. February is a spring month. 4. The NAO/AO will be positive (except maybe in March/April). Do not believe any forecast which shows them negative for a significant period of time. 5. The SER loves me and knows what's best for me. 6. Repeat: the NAO/AO will not be negative. Do not buy into the weekly forecasts 7. Whenever models disagree, always trust the warmer one. 8. Seriously: do not expect the NAO/AO to ever go truly negative in DEC - FEB again. 9. Models will flawlessly pick-up on warm spells except they underestimate their intensity .

Wow. 1954 was a miserable early October.

Even better is the experimental 12.5 month forecast for Oct-Nov-Dec 2020. The good cheer never ends.

Amazing how warm 1925 was; must have been awful in those pre-AC days looking forward to Fall relief and getting a face full of high summer. Also, amazing how soupy last year was at Asheville.

Radar shows the line is dying. Bummer. Did get 0.53" from the prefrontal convection. Was hoping for more though.

Maddening week. It has rained four separate times over the last two days and I have netted a total of 0.17". Hoping the system on Friday delivers the goods.

Seems like convection never really got going today.

Very frustrating day for me rain wise. A very nice cell blew up in Wilson. Poured at work for a while. Looking on the radar you could see a little refuge of light rain/drizzle amongst all that red and it was right over my house!!. Only picked picked up 0.06". Grumble grumble.

Well darn it my rain gauge has malfunctioned. Wilson city reporting 1.11". That feels about right.

Man, that was disappointing. Line of storms just missed to my north. Then after it passed to my west, the line extended south. To add insult to injury, it stabilized the atmosphere. The previous 60% chance of rain is now 20%.

0.64" yesterday, 0.34" today. 1.21" overall since Thursday Would have liked to get under one of those downpours that were attracted to Greensboro or Raleigh, but overall not too bad.

Really makes you wonder about site location of the station.

Yeah noticed that as well. When that happens I wish the AFD would discuss in more detail what has changed in their thinking.

Where were you located?

A welcome 0.24" here today. Hoping for more over the next few days.

Ahhhhhhhhhh. 2.25" of much needed rain today. 4.04" for the month.

One thing has me perturbed. A few days ago it looked as if the front was going to stall and we would get several days of elevated rain chances. Now it's going to barrel through in one day. If I miss out on Tuesday, it's dry for another week. I'll be anxious all day.

I wouldn't call it a bust but overall I would say that at least it didn't over-perform.

I would re I really would to understand how ridges work better. How did it occur that that Boston (Logan) got hotter than RDU today (96 vs 95)?

Don't look over in the MA forum. They have a thread already cancelling this upcoming winter.

Must be nice. Currently sitting on 0.09" for the week.

In their defense, many homes up there lack air conditioning. Upstairs bedrooms are unpleasant.

Yeah, it lightning and thundered for like two straight hours, but we only got .02 out of it. Definitely in a slump right now.

Just can't win. Another near miss tonight.

And as if on queue, the cell is collapsing. Sigh.