cbmclean
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Everything posted by cbmclean
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Can we put a pool cover over top of it to block the heat flux?
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Eric Webb awfully silent today
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The dewpoints (the green line) in the lower levels (below 750 HP) are very very low (well negative). This is sometimes good in that it aids in evaporative cooling but it can be bad in that it eats up a lot of your QPF at the start.
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Accidentally did a booboo and posted banter on the obs thread. Nobody saw it. It was never there.
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Sheet is the rarest frozen precip type; like sleet but shyer.
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The frozen extends down to Wilson NC; got at least a dozen sleet pellets down here.
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Sleeting in Wilson.
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Seems like it's GEFS vs GEPS/EPS in terms of showing troughing in the SW in the LR. I would also say the 18Z showed slight improvement in this regard. The GEFS has been less enthusiastic about Pacific blocking ever since November; maybe this is another occasion when it corrects to the other guidance?
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He was up in British Columbia.
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Different sub forum, but in January 2017 Eastern NC was forecasted to get a significant snowfall for us: 6"+ with some potential 9" lolys. Very shortly before gametime the NAM took a dump in the punchbowl with a massive warm nose. Everybody discounted it because the globals were still bullish. "It's the NAM" we said, "when is it ever right"? Guess what happened...
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I've heard he was a dead ringer for H2O.
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How do you know it's a guy? Could be like a vengeful ex-wife; stealing your dog and your snow.
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Webb still holding hard to the idea of a major jog north. He's persistent anyway.
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Thanks Bob. I know my climo. I have no pretensions. Just would like to get on the board this year after two straight dead ratters. Looking at the ensembles at the end of their range, none look truly bad. GEFS seems to look worst, GEPS and EPS look better. Right now no epic looks.
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Well that's a fookin buzzkill.
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Hey no, stealing our snow! Seriously though as a guest from the SE forum I am really happy it look slike many of you will get the goods starting tomorrow. I hope you clean up this winter snow on snow on snow... Once you're satiated though, could you send a few crumbs our way? We've been baaaaaaaad off...
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That's always the most likely outcome. Previously, every once in a while the fail failed to fail and we got hit. Can that still happen going forward? TBD. But this looks like the best chance we've had in a while. Best is relative though. Still more likely to fail than not.
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I thought you'd be taller.
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I'd allow it.
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Did you turn your weather-block software off?
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And I thought the FV3 was the new GFS!
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I thought the NAM was a high result ion GFS?
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0Z GEFS and GEPS both show an eastern conus trough at the end. I didn't like the look on the 0Z Euro at 384 but maybe it was just reloading? Edit: not sure what I was looking at but the 0Z EPS look snot bad at 360...
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Well we can have BN temps and AN precip...just not at the same time.
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I wonder if Eric Webb will make hay with the NAM sleet fest. He's been very downish on this threat for the MA. Today he hurt my feelings by raising the specter of Jan 2017 when central-eastern NC had a solid event forecast and at the last minute the NAM sniffed out a warm nose that reduced our 6 - 9" to maybe 1" of sleet and freezing drizzle.
