cbmclean

Wow a big temp spread from me to you.

I can confirm this!!!

Sadly I have to agree that if this subforum isn't exactly dying it definitely appears to be in the decline. It is my perception that there is much less general discussion here. I have seen weenies even mention a general decline in the MA thread as well. One particular poster there opined that sites like this are being edged out by twitter (I mean X)/snapchat/Instagram type communication. I will say that part of it is probably been the absolute dreg of a base state we have been in most of the last decade. A lot of people have just given up.

I usually stay away from drama, but I HAVE to know, what happened to Cold Rain?

It sniffs out the big warm noses...

And Frosty always cracked me in that he apparently lived on top of Mount Mitchel and every cold wind brought him 5 inches.

Man I saw 25 new posts appeared over dinner and I was excited some major guidance chimed in. Not sure what the imprecations are regarding Cold Rain, but his epic post after the January 2017 snowfall bust is bar none my favorite post that I have seen on this site.

That cutoff is painful for me over in Wilson.

Can we put a pool cover over top of it to block the heat flux?

Eric Webb awfully silent today

The dewpoints (the green line) in the lower levels (below 750 HP) are very very low (well negative). This is sometimes good in that it aids in evaporative cooling but it can be bad in that it eats up a lot of your QPF at the start.

Accidentally did a booboo and posted banter on the obs thread. Nobody saw it. It was never there.

Sheet is the rarest frozen precip type; like sleet but shyer.

The frozen extends down to Wilson NC; got at least a dozen sleet pellets down here.

Sleeting in Wilson.

Seems like it's GEFS vs GEPS/EPS in terms of showing troughing in the SW in the LR. I would also say the 18Z showed slight improvement in this regard. The GEFS has been less enthusiastic about Pacific blocking ever since November; maybe this is another occasion when it corrects to the other guidance?

He was up in British Columbia.

Different sub forum, but in January 2017 Eastern NC was forecasted to get a significant snowfall for us: 6"+ with some potential 9" lolys. Very shortly before gametime the NAM took a dump in the punchbowl with a massive warm nose. Everybody discounted it because the globals were still bullish. "It's the NAM" we said, "when is it ever right"? Guess what happened...

I've heard he was a dead ringer for H2O.

How do you know it's a guy? Could be like a vengeful ex-wife; stealing your dog and your snow.

Webb still holding hard to the idea of a major jog north. He's persistent anyway.

Thanks Bob. I know my climo. I have no pretensions. Just would like to get on the board this year after two straight dead ratters. Looking at the ensembles at the end of their range, none look truly bad. GEFS seems to look worst, GEPS and EPS look better. Right now no epic looks.

Well that's a fookin buzzkill.

Hey no, stealing our snow! Seriously though as a guest from the SE forum I am really happy it look slike many of you will get the goods starting tomorrow. I hope you clean up this winter snow on snow on snow... Once you're satiated though, could you send a few crumbs our way? We've been baaaaaaaad off...

That's always the most likely outcome. Previously, every once in a while the fail failed to fail and we got hit. Can that still happen going forward? TBD. But this looks like the best chance we've had in a while. Best is relative though. Still more likely to fail than not.