cbmclean
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Everything posted by cbmclean
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Well if he just steals WxUSA's posts at least his Twitter followers will be well informed.
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They say imitation is the sincerest form of flattery. Consider yourself flattered.
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Curious why you are not concerned. Someone posted an MJO forecast in the banter firm. Patented entry into crap phases and sloooooooooow down. Has me spooked. Edit Nevermind. You answered my question before I even posted it.
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Well there is a definite downer mood, but the question is whether it is justified or not. I am not knowledgeable enough to know.
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Trying to learn to interpret patterns at 500 hp. I see a trough in the east, but heights are simply normal. Mildly AN heights in Greenland, but higher heights to the South. So NAO slightly positive. AO ambiguous but at least not strongly positive. +PNA right? Overall what is the sensible weather expected in the Eastern CONUS?
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Percentiles aren't necessarily symmetric. It all depends on the underlying data. There must be some extreme outliers on both sides.
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I just have nightmares of a pig Pacific vortex or a 594 dm death ridge in the Atlantic a la Dec 2015. They haunt me.
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On a standard boxplot it would be the 25th to 75th percentile, so that would be my first guess.
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Anyway consider me bummed. It is clear the overall message is +AO/+EPO. I had my hopes set on the EPO.
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What does the thicker bar in the interior of the overall error bars mean?
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Be careful, though. Being this hot in the NFL is like having one of those invincible stars in Super Mario. You are invincible for a while. But then it wears off. Of course I am a Dolphins fan so maybe I am just bitter.
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I find it confusing why such people hang out in a LR thread.
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I have a very bitter memory of one point last year when the mid-December warm-up was looking like it was going to be very brief. Cut to 11 pm New Years Eve and it was 67 F outside my parent's house. A nearly perfect storm track went over you guys a few days later and produced only rain. I think it made Bob Chill physically sick. Hopefully we don;t get a repeat this year.
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Maybe we can hope that all of the seasonals are as painfully wrong this year as they were last year about the beautiful fantasy pattern that always happened just past week 3.
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That is truly fascination, how in the world could that 2m anomaly map coincide with that H5 look, unless the GEFS ensemble mean is way different than the OP?
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I wait until some one pulls out the recurving typhoon before I cliff jump./
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And in the SE, we say the whole MA is a land of milk, honey, and snow.
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That makes me chuckle.
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Shouldn't have too much dust on it. Didn't we just have a nice cross-polar episode a few weeks a when we had our big cold shot?
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I will accept the existence of a -NAO when it happened a week ago. Actually, scratch that, -NAOs can exist in March - November, just not in Dec - Feb.
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For what it is worth on the cpc page giving the NAO/AO conditions, the label says 500 mb for the NAO but 1000 mb for the AO. .
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Still trying to sort out my Pacific teleconnections. So a -PNA pattern can come and go relatively quickly, but a dreaded +EPO will embed itself for weeks?
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This sounds like textbook advertisement for setting one's expectations based on the median instead of the mean.
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Right now ( I mean this past decade) reality is skewing warm. I think that frustrates most people on this forum, which makes us quick to lash out. I know I constantly have to fight against a natural desire to pay attention when someone predicts "COLD COLD", but dismiss those saying "WARM, WARM" as idiots.
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27 °F?
