cbmclean
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Everything posted by cbmclean
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Yes they did have that storm pegged early, but from reading others post it seemed like that was unexpectedly good performance.
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I was under the impression that you shouldn't really trust the operational models past 5 days in general.
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Wow an I85 transition line. Who'd have thunk it?
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Well the 2010s have definitely been noted for some impressive winter torches, but to be fair the historic cold last year set in right after Christmas.
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Uh oh, did it cave to the NAM?
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Awfully quiet in here now.
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I would love the HRRR to be right, but is there any reason to trust it over the NAM? I have heard it mentioned over and over that the NAM is killer with dealing with the warm nose.
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Actually Calgary is prone to snow-eating Chinook winds. Might want to try the Michgan UP.
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Well, there are clearly two camps. HRRR says plenty of love for RDU. NAM says that at least 1/2 of the QPF at RDU will be the tears of snow weanies. The NAM is supposed to be good with the warm nose so I have a bad feeling about it.
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My pleasure. Of course I meant "battle between cold, dry air and warm, wet air".
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Actually thermal issues are a hallmark of many large snow events wherever even up to New England. The fundamental fact is that cold air tends to be dry and wet air tends to be warm. So big snows tend to happen on the front lines of a battle between cold dry air and warm dry air, which means the thermals will generally tend to be unstable.
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Well, to be fair, the 93 superstorm was in March.
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Yes, I meant Jan 2017. Sorry.
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To me, it seemed that he was quite stung by the outcry after the Jan 2016 debacle (much of which was undeserved in my opinion). I half wonder if that experience may have added a bit to his conservatism.
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He wrote a dissertation after the Jan 17 "incident". Someone re-posted it yesterday. If I knew how, I would re-post it again. It should be required reading before one can post on here.
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Most of them bad, apparently.
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So what does "getting NAMed" mean? I had thought it was when the NAM showed a rediculously overdone QPF at range. But I saw a post in the main storm thread which seemed to imply it meant when the NAM was first to sniff out a warm nose and rained on your snow parade. Which is it?
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By the way, I like your little header "1899 Repeat, Please". I learned about the great 1899 cold outbreak in my well-loved copy of Christopher C. Burt's "Extreme Weather". -2 F in Tallehassee! Here is a link to a journal article about it. https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/1520-0434(1988)003<0305%3ATGAOAE>2.0.CO%3B2
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You know, I still can't shake the feeling that SOMETHING unforeseen is going to go wrong with this storm. An under-modeled warm nose, anomalous dry banding, aliens from space using their death rays to zap the snow before it hits the ground. And when it happens, this board is going to be near catatonic.
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Can someone remind me what the RGEM is again. Asking for a friend
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Why do they bother wasting what I would assume are scarce computational resources in running a model so far outside of its effective domain?
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Good to see you posting Downeastnc. I'm trying to stay aloof of this storm, I just don't see much in the cards for us. Maybe some wet flakes if we are lucky.
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We're used to it.
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Hey Buddy, are you model watching while you should be working?
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That may have been in jest, but i think it's a good point in reality. Since the major storm seems to depend on the perfect timing of the NS and SS features, once more data is assimilated it may go poof.
