An interesting tidbit. On July 4th, KFAY tied a record high temp (98 F) and set rain record (2.80") in the same day. That duo has got to be relatively rare occurance.
Baby steps. From the RAH forecast discussion.
Some notable trends have unfolded in the guidance over the past day
or so, namely a trend toward a more unsettled weather pattern for
especially the first half of the long term, which would in effect
limit the excessive heat potential that we are expecting for the mid-
week period.
A tiny cell came agonizingly close today but just missed to the north. It was falling apart anyway; even if it had been on target still might not have gotten much.
Rainfall much more reasonable in the east.
0.95" today with a monthly total of 2.91"
5.02" since the dry spell broke on May 31st.
Vegetation looking MUCH better.
Also, neglected to post this earlier. Here is a hailstone from the beginning of the storm on last Friday. I think this one is a due to several stones melting and refreezing together.
Light rain about 5 pm, then the sun came out followed by a black pall descending from the sky followed by some torrential rain and wind. Relatively brief but still got a good 1.33". Yard is in recovery mode from the Ridge of Death.
73/72 here.
Saw a NWS blog post about historically warm May 2019. Record warmest at KFAY, second warmest at GSO. Third at RDU.
But what struck me was that until this may, the number one warmest May for all three central NC climate stations was... 2018!. 2018 is still the record holder for GSO and RDU.
I don't have a single memory about May 2018 being warm but it was somehow warmer than this month's oven at RDU.
Finished up with 2.11" yesterday. Just what the Dr. ordered.
3.00" for the month.
Shows the pluses and minuses of statistics. I don't remember being last May being particularly warm, but the numbers say it was.
On the other hand, in future years someone would look back at my 3.00" in May and say "Must not have been that dry".
You know, I honestly don't remember last May being that warm, but it was the old record holder in Atlanta Fayetteville and Norfolk, so a broad swath of the south Atlantic.
So Don, is the correlation not that strong for NC northward?
A strange liquid substance falling from the sky. Not sure what it portends.
1.43" so far after only having 0.89" the other 30 days in May.
Even got some hail at the beginning of the downpour.
0.15" yesterday. A bit annoying as we got very little around here but all the activity in the vicinity stabilized the atmosphere and killed off the MCV as it moved NE.
Was interested to note at in the slide deck how the infamous Morch 2012 was preceded by some not-bad looking MJO history. Most of February spent in 8 -1- 2.
I am eagerly awaiting a PSU postmortem for this winter. In the meantime, does anybody know if the extreme SSWE produced some good blocking for someone, somewhere? The eastern CONUS obviously did not cash in, but I am hoping somebody did.
But were those favorable outlooks really realistic though? From discussion I have seen on here, it seems like a lot of warning signs were missed.
No disagreement about the LR models though. I'm not sure I will ever again be able to take them seriously.