cbmclean
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Everything posted by cbmclean
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I was thinking that the ice would still be much thinner than normal there and thus subject to higher heat flux from the water. Apparently not enough to maintain a ridge.
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Summary of MA thread feeling for today: Apocalyptically bad pattern incoming. Not only is it horrible, it is the kind of pattern which tends to get dug in for months at a time. Strong Objective-based evidence for fearing for all of January.
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So are we heading to what they would classify as an Arctic Low?
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Actually I am looking forward to our annual March -NAO outbreak which gets us flurries.
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Very quick summary of MA forum discussion today: For the foreseeable future pretty much zero chance of SE snow (outside of high terrain). Fairly decent shot of a cool/dry shot or two. In the very long range, models currently advertising a George Costanza pattern (ie the exact opposite of everything that is desirable).
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Yes that is very helpful thanks. Wouldn't it be nice if that anomalous warm bubble actually verified a couple of thousand miles east but was still as persistent?
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I finally have time to start seriously learning how to interpret 500 HP charts. Before you take your break, can you explain the negative downstream effects of the ridge north of Hawaii?
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PV bouncing around in all the wrong places?
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Man look at that triangle of doom in West Kansas.
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Won't gave access to the models for a bit. GEP look good?
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Gotta love how it shows sleet/zr in the gulf of Mexico. 1899 redux. I'm sure it will happen.
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Boo, hiss. ETA: This is definitely banter. Is there a way to move one's own post to another thread?
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My first interpretation is that it appears to have no clue. I am guessing the green line is the Ensemble mean. Individual members are showing it emerge literally everywhere.
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Also, neglected to post this earlier. Here is a hailstone from the beginning of the storm on last Friday. I think this one is a due to several stones melting and refreezing together.
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Had some torrential windy rain in Wilson.
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Just plain sigh...
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Well, the wording of his statement "I take full responsibility for my actions ..." kind of suggests to me that he did something bad to someone else. I could mention the first thing that comes to mind, but it would be baseless speculation. Man, I am bummed I grew up with him.
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I am seriously bummed out by this. I wonder what the heck happened.
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Congrats to the DC bunch from your SE forum friends. Here's hoping the whole east coast can cash in on multiple big ones over the next month.
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Uh oh, did it cave to the NAM?
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Awfully quiet in here now.
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I would love the HRRR to be right, but is there any reason to trust it over the NAM? I have heard it mentioned over and over that the NAM is killer with dealing with the warm nose.
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Actually Calgary is prone to snow-eating Chinook winds. Might want to try the Michgan UP.
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Well, there are clearly two camps. HRRR says plenty of love for RDU. NAM says that at least 1/2 of the QPF at RDU will be the tears of snow weanies. The NAM is supposed to be good with the warm nose so I have a bad feeling about it.
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My pleasure. Of course I meant "battle between cold, dry air and warm, wet air".
