cbmclean

Not bad for VA but very Meh for NC. cold is definitely centered west as the trough axis retrogrades. The SER begins to rise. This screams cold-dry intervals punctuated by warm-rain.

I'll be happy for you if it happens but it will be maddening for me. I'll b mere miles away from the good stuff.

Unlikely. General rule of thumb is models usually overdo the icing. But I guess there are probably exceptions.

LR ENS don't look horrible with regards to temps through the ends of the runs.

He was just joking at the Feb 2026 typo.

boo, hiss.

Well put, but La Nina + -PDO + bad MJO leave me with low expectations for FEB.

Anti-weenie rule #1: Always trust the warmest model.

I'm not a fan of the PR regime in general. Maybe it's not as hostile if there is a trough underneath the ridge.

The NAM was first to sniff out the Jan 2017 debacle. It was on an island then as well. If it says warm, I have to trust it.

It ALWAYS overperforms.

Yeah I saw that, but the 18z juiced the storm up bit and as a result it's warmer.

Baring some miracle SE trend, looks as if us 95ers are out of the game.

Ugly.

Your standard Jacksonville Jumper

I know, I was assuming that was a negative comment and my counterpoint is given the issues we are having with suppression would you really want it colder?

Did you want it colder and more surpressed?

The real weenies all visit Vostok in Antarctica.

I'll believe it when I see it; it's been almost physically impossible for the MJO to spend any time in 7-8-1-2 since the start of our -PDOom period. Note how the wave collapsed into the COD rather than be in 7. Edit, for some reason I was thinking 7 was one of the "good" phases but looking at the correlations, not really.

Model trends are positive on balance but this has some warning signs anyone hoping for significant impact in NC east of the mountains. The stagnant cold, lack of a high, suspiciously high thicknesses etc. I will forever be scarred by Jan 2017...

Wow a big temp spread from me to you.

I can confirm this!!!

Sadly I have to agree that if this subforum isn't exactly dying it definitely appears to be in the decline. It is my perception that there is much less general discussion here. I have seen weenies even mention a general decline in the MA thread as well. One particular poster there opined that sites like this are being edged out by twitter (I mean X)/snapchat/Instagram type communication. I will say that part of it is probably been the absolute dreg of a base state we have been in most of the last decade. A lot of people have just given up.

I usually stay away from drama, but I HAVE to know, what happened to Cold Rain?

It sniffs out the big warm noses...