cbmclean
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Everything posted by cbmclean
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1/10-11 super awesome winter SE OBS thread
cbmclean replied to strongwxnc's topic in Southeastern States
The lightest of sleet here in Wilson. Temp oozing down 33.1 now. -
It was poetic license.
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For me, I have to put the Prince sketch in there right after Rick James. Last year the SE Ridge crushed my snow hopes...and made me pancakes.
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What did the hand say to the Southeast Ridge?
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I thought you were just a big-game hunter?
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Not bad for VA but very Meh for NC. cold is definitely centered west as the trough axis retrogrades. The SER begins to rise. This screams cold-dry intervals punctuated by warm-rain.
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I'll be happy for you if it happens but it will be maddening for me. I'll b mere miles away from the good stuff.
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Unlikely. General rule of thumb is models usually overdo the icing. But I guess there are probably exceptions.
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LR ENS don't look horrible with regards to temps through the ends of the runs.
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He was just joking at the Feb 2026 typo.
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boo, hiss.
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Well put, but La Nina + -PDO + bad MJO leave me with low expectations for FEB.
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Anti-weenie rule #1: Always trust the warmest model.
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I'm not a fan of the PR regime in general. Maybe it's not as hostile if there is a trough underneath the ridge.
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The NAM was first to sniff out the Jan 2017 debacle. It was on an island then as well. If it says warm, I have to trust it.
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It ALWAYS overperforms.
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Yeah I saw that, but the 18z juiced the storm up bit and as a result it's warmer.
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Baring some miracle SE trend, looks as if us 95ers are out of the game.
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Ugly.
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Your standard Jacksonville Jumper
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I know, I was assuming that was a negative comment and my counterpoint is given the issues we are having with suppression would you really want it colder?
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Did you want it colder and more surpressed?
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The real weenies all visit Vostok in Antarctica.
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I'll believe it when I see it; it's been almost physically impossible for the MJO to spend any time in 7-8-1-2 since the start of our -PDOom period. Note how the wave collapsed into the COD rather than be in 7. Edit, for some reason I was thinking 7 was one of the "good" phases but looking at the correlations, not really.
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Model trends are positive on balance but this has some warning signs anyone hoping for significant impact in NC east of the mountains. The stagnant cold, lack of a high, suspiciously high thicknesses etc. I will forever be scarred by Jan 2017...
