cbmclean

Even RDU got down to 21 last night. The volcano must have gone dormant for the night.

Not sure how workable that is. Way too much NPac troughing. Yeah, there is an eastern trough but at best we're left with "domestic" cold, and that doesn't work anymore so it seems.

If I understand correctly, this little cold spell was a bit of a surprise on in terms of 3/4 week modeling as things looked bad for early December before 11/15 or so. But once it came into 384 range it was pretty stable, which is kind of unusual for modelled cold these days...

That's surprisingly variable given the look on the mean...

Here's the H500 for that time: deep NPac trough. Question for the board, does this count as "Pac Puke

Hey, I'm normal!

CAPE has had all he can stand and he can't stands no more

It's Met winter.

"buh dup CHHHH"

"Accuracy" is a surprisingly nebulous concept for something as complex as NWP, as it varies widely based on location, season and exactly what parameter you are talking about (H500, qpf etc). That said the Icon has traditionally been considered one of the JV models but I have no idea if that is still true or not.

The "T" in the Snowfall column stands for "tons" right?

An dominant -EPO ridge which somehow also manage to time the cold with the moisture to get good snow. Perhaps a one-in-a generation event or even rarer.

Your argument is probably lost on anyone who would take a 34.75 - 41.75 NWP output seriously to begin with. By the way, greetings fellow SE weenie. If we keep coming up to the MA forum they might have to build a border (fire)wall to keep us out.

A detailed article on the mechanics of Justin Tucker's woes. Might be of some interest to Raven's fans here. https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2024/12/4/24313037/justin-tucker-misses-baltimore-ravens-struggles-explained-kicking

Last year, during the period when the models were spitting out THE epic pattern, I believe the analogs were good.

Your analog mapping seems to agree pretty well with Chuck's "roll forward" methodology: some cold in December followed by SER city in Jan-Feb. That makes me sad.

Don't pull me back in with hope... Too late, I'm back...

Can you explain what you mean when you say you "rolled something forward"?

You whooped us again Chuck. Any thoughts on after Xmas?

A view of the surroundings of the RDU temp sensor:

I chuckled inwardly at this from the RAH AFD Interestingly tonight at 900 PM, RDU was 34 degrees. No other stations (ASOS) were warmer in the state of North Carolina except for the Outer Banks stations surrounded by water and Beaufort on the coast. Even Wilmington was 32. Also of local interest, all the Wake County and Raleigh sites (AWOS and LDAD) were running colder than the RDU ASOS except one. I counted on the order of 25 sites in Wake that reported at 900 PM. Only one site that is urbanized (near downtown) reported 35. Even the hot spot in our CWA, Fayetteville reported 26.

I don't trust it per see, but I think it marginally superior to see good signs at 384 rather than continued crap. I have known several occurrences when a shit the blinds pattern appeared at 384 and marched regally up in time. January 2020 is an excellent example.

Looking at what the latest ensemble guidance is showing: -18Z GEFS At 384 it looks like there may be hints of ridging starting to develop in the EPO domain and maybe a bit in the PNA domain. Looks like an incipient trough forming in the GOA. Not sure if that is good for us or not. -18Z GEPS at 384 has similar hits of ridging maybe staring in the EPO domain. No GOA trough yet. Both still have an eastern ridge though which is no bueno. Of course still waiting for the 0Z EPS. What does everyone else think?

I live in NC (I hang around here because the SE forum is mostly dead unless there is an actual storm imminent, which is rare these days). It is indeed a depressing time for snow lovers here. I have to push back a bit about the pessimism being ludicrous. I've lost count by now but I think something like 5 of the last 7 winters have had a very bad Pacific pattern set in for early/mid December and last through 6 - 12 weeks with some relaxations. In those years the core of winter prime climo was devastated. So seeing the guidance start to point to similar occurrence now I think definitely justifies concern.