cbmclean
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Everything posted by cbmclean
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Sorry, I do not mean to be rude, but is this post serious, or is it a parody? I have to admit it does not make any sense to me.
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So using my education gained from PSUHoffman's Climo class room, (and other posts from him and others on this forum) I see 50/50 Low. Mostly troughing in PNA domain. Pacific Doom Blob is trying to turn into EPO ridge, but it is too far west to do any good. Some ridging in NAO domain, but centered too far south. TPV in Hudson Bay, nothing particularly good there. So overall this is a bad setup, right (somebody break out the red grading pin).
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Now THAT is a west coast trough.
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Hey PSU. If you are bored and are just looking for stuff to do, I would be really interested in seeing a similar dissertation about crappy patterns. For example, my understanding is that the crap that started right before Christmas is a different sort of fail from the Pacific Doom Blob that we will soon be enjoying. I think in one of your posts today you mentioned it as a north Pacific problem as opposed to a SW Pacific problem.
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I thought that 2012 was a pig Alaska vortex, sort of like the crappy pattern we are just getting out of, as opposed to the one we are going into.
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Guidance still continuing on predictions that MJO wave will go strong into crap phases followed by degradation into the COD. I am starting to really dislike the SW Pacific region.
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Well for those of you who really dislike progressive patterns, at least there won't be that.
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My only goal now is to try and somehow avoid January being the #1 record warm. Right now things aren't looking good.
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Never heard of Atlantic tripole before.
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Really anxious to see what Dr. No has to say about it at 0z.
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I have to admit that I am not optimistic. I still can't get past the analogs in your research. That and the atrocious MJO forecast have me calling shenanigans on these improvements.
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Hello, magpiemaniac, I am curious where this map came from.
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Why does convection there feed the central pacific ridge?
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Thanks Don. I am curious, do you feel it is likely that the ++++AO is linked to the central pacific ridge, or is it just bad timing of two unfavorable features. I mean I know that everything is connected on some level in weather I am just curious if they are just two manifestations of the same underlying phenomenon.
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I took the day off. Just looked at the 240 Hr EPS. Pacific Doom Blob even stronger.
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Over the years you have been one of those leading the way for castigating the GFS for its fantasy snow storms and cold. I think most of us have just learned our lesson.
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No.
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Link to the weekly MJO write-up from the CPC. Nothing surprising. Need to root for the GEFS (I hate saying that). EPS takes it absolutely apesh!t into the bad phases. Jeeze where have I seen that before. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjoupdate.pdf
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So, I am curious how JB is reacting to the models these days.
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The real question is does Panic Room have the infrastructure to support the mass horde of refugees which will come surging in once they wake up and read the post tomorrow.
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Well, the talk of the expanding Pacific warm pool skewing the MJO to the warm phases has me spooked. But enough about that in this thread.
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I think the NAM is synonymous with the AO.
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To be frank I think it is completely rational to be concerned that we may be on the brink of the start of a 100 year stretch, for reasons that I know you know, but I will not mention in this thread. On the other hand, I think it is not unreasonable to hope that the recent decadal wasteland of +NAO/AO may be unrelated to that dark force that we will not name and perhaps soon we will see the return to better NAO/AO behavior.
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Alright, that wins the thread.
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I'll just leave this here. Sleep tight.
