cbmclean

I have to disagree. When the model guidance is good, PSU says so. When it is bad he is sometimes discouraged as are we all. Right now guidance is bad or at least clearly trending the wrong way. Ji on the other hand...

So is the Pacific Jet retraction cancelled?

Assuming this wave goes down in flames, what is your assessment of general potential in days beyond (d10 -16)?

Anyone know what the Pacific jet is up to? Last I saw it was forecast to significantly retract, which is crucial to our hopes for cold.

Uh oh.

Last year there was a brief period where the modeling consistently advertised a significant improvement from the Pacific Doom Blob regime. I remember distinctly that this modeled improvement started to fall apart jast as the Ravens were losing to Tennessee last year. At the time I was hoping that the negative interpretation of the modelling had a lot to do with the emotions from the game. But alas it was not the case. The look continued to degrade over the next few days and the rest is history. Hopefully we don;t get a redux this year.

Saw tiny snowflakes for about 30 seconds in Wilson.

I wondered why it was so quiet in the main thread. Then I remembered the Ravens are playing.

Wait isn't the "old Para" the current GFS?

I'm a chart guy, so for fun, I plotted the "near DC" 2m temp at 18Z for hours 0 - 384, according to the 18z gfs. Decently chilly for days 7 - 14. Not sure what happens between 336 and 360, but it wasn't pretty.

We need a Canadian Maritimes subforum on here.

Hey I'm the epicenter. I'm all in.

That goes out past where I can see on TT. What does the temp profile look like?

Hey, been waiting for you to show up. Turn those Shields off!!!

Too suppressed even for NC. This panel caught my eye though: 540 line down almost to Miami, and snow breaking out over the gulf stream.

Gotta love this one. 540 line down almost to Miami.

Curious, why is that a "lol"?

Not much going on for at least the next week, unless I missed something new.

Is that good bad or indifferent?

Not angels, but close enough.

Continuing my little 18z GEFS temp forecast monitoring project for MBY. Overall not much change from yesterday's 18Z. I did note an improved temperature profile in Southern Canada which is a little encouraging.

I'm getting the urge to see more that what Tropical Tidbits has to offer so am considering dipping my toe into a pay sight. My big interest right now is temperature forecasts. I would love to be able to see the temperature spread across the various ensemble members. Anyone have any recommendations for pay sites? I mean Weatherbell is the big one I know. Just interested in knowing if there are any other good options available for temperature stuff.

Interesting. The December pattern is quite different in the western cons and in the west Pac.

Excellent graphics. Thanks for the post. What exactly is the ideal Pacific pattern for SE snow? I know that a big EPO ridge can lead to some nice cold shots, but I have also heard they tend to be cold and dry followed by warm ups when SWs come through

rimshot.