cbmclean

December was just plain average here in most of NC. But that's actually a huge win compared to the last five years and also how things were looking in many of the seasonal forecasts in the fall.

I don;t have access to any EPO forecasts. So what's the current state? In PSU's recent progression e-mails he has mentioned an upcoming -EPO event which will unfortunately dump into the west. Is that not happening now? And as much as these guys annoy me, they have been correct the last several years about several advertised -EPO periods that never materialized (but man they seem to make a special effort to do so as pompously and arrogantly as possible). ETA: I see my question was answered before I even asked it.

Is "WB's JB" = Joe Bastardi?

If the models runs improve, you will be expected to stump your toes every day through the end of Februray.

Thanks for the analysis. I suspected that it was likely not a reproducible pattern but in desperation I'm looking for anything which might possibly "work". Speaking of the Pac Jet, you have mentioned that our choice is to have it either pointed at us, with the result being a Pac puke torch, or else at Canada, with the result that our source region torches. Is there no configuration which leads to it being pointed to the southeast, like at Mexico? You have never mentioned that as a possibility so I am assuming its not feasible, but I was wondering why.

We got a few inches of snow down here towards the end of the pattern which is enough to satisfy us for the most part. The fresh snow cover was what allowed me to hit 0 °F. Then the pattern shifted and we torched for the rest of the January and all of February. March was chill though as you guys surly remember.

I haven't been since last year right before COVID hit, but to my knowledge they are still going strong. They did get in trouble due to some COVID compliance issues back in the fall. https://www.witn.com/2020/09/29/coronavirus-guideline-violations-reported-at-parkers-in-wilson/

Ponds froze over and I hit 0 °F in Wilson NC, which is in the coastal plain. That is amazing for here. Back then I had even less knowledge of global weather patterns than I do now, so I wasn't really paying attention to what was driving the cold. Now I want to understand.

The last significant cold outbreak I remember in my neck of the woods US was late December 2017/early January 2018. Not much snow up you guys way but it was 2 weeks of solid cold. I am assuming that it was Pacific driven. I took a look at the 500HP anomalies from that period and it didn't really make sense to me. Would you be interested in analyzing that period to see what was going on?

So is the Pacific Jet retraction cancelled?

Assuming this wave goes down in flames, what is your assessment of general potential in days beyond (d10 -16)?

Anyone know what the Pacific jet is up to? Last I saw it was forecast to significantly retract, which is crucial to our hopes for cold.

Saw tiny snowflakes for about 30 seconds in Wilson.

Wait isn't the "old Para" the current GFS?

I'm a chart guy, so for fun, I plotted the "near DC" 2m temp at 18Z for hours 0 - 384, according to the 18z gfs. Decently chilly for days 7 - 14. Not sure what happens between 336 and 360, but it wasn't pretty.

We need a Canadian Maritimes subforum on here.

Hey I'm the epicenter. I'm all in.

That goes out past where I can see on TT. What does the temp profile look like?

Hey, been waiting for you to show up. Turn those Shields off!!!

Too suppressed even for NC. This panel caught my eye though: 540 line down almost to Miami, and snow breaking out over the gulf stream.

Gotta love this one. 540 line down almost to Miami.

Curious, why is that a "lol"?

Not much going on for at least the next week, unless I missed something new.

Is that good bad or indifferent?