cbmclean

Got down to 22.8 °F last night. I will say that the brief yet repeated cool snaps in February seem to have gone a long way to keeping the more annoying bugs in check, and also slowed the grass a good bit. They are still way ahead of schedule, but less disgustingly so.

You hear that sound, it's the sound of inevitability.

Oh it's completely rational, in just funnin'ya

LONG LONG LONG term but I'll just leave this here. Somebody make sure that Maestrobjwa doesn't see this. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf

I blame PSU personally. If he hadn't have made that infamous post back in late December, this never would have happened.

I will gladly take some extra snow, but I am really rooting for our comrades in the MA to score something.

Its a pretty low bar, but I'll take it.

Still holding at 33 F. If I could have had one degree, I could have had 6 inches.

Checking his garbage cans ain't happening?

So I'm in the jackpot zone 48 hours out. What could go wrong?

Just read the aforementioned Istotherm post. Based on his analysis I am concluding that our best case scenarios is to catch some breaks and struggle to a merely bad winter, as opposed to atrocious. It is still very much in play for me to get completely blanked this winter, for the first time since the 90's. By blanked I mean not even laying eyes on a single flake/pellet of frozen precipitation. In 2011-12 I at least saw a few sleet pellets.

Only when it depicts a dumpster fire.

Again, I must hasten to add that was not a criticism. I simply assume that if he mentions something on here, there is a good reason. I just wanted to understand the reasoning behind it. I know that he does not require kid gloves, but I do not want the rest of the forum to think I am one of those posters who comes in and gripes to show off how much they think they know.

The following is not an attempt to criticize but an honest attempt to learn. Why do you (by "you" I mean the top-tier knowledgeable weenies as opposed to random posters) analyze the operationals in the long range? It was my understanding that they are effectively useless at that lead. Is it just something fun to do, or is there sometimes some actually useful info buried in the trends etc? I know that PSU has mentioned that since the GEFS is still based on the old GFS, he still looks at the GFS just so he has an idea of what the new core thinks. Is that the only justification?

Right where we want it.

Marked this post in my mind when we have our postmortem at the end.

PSU (or anyone else interested in answering) I have been studying 500 HP trying to understand the correlation between them and surface temperatures. With a simple west ridge/east trough, it is very simple to see how the airflow brings cold air down from the norther latitudes and cools us down. But for something like the ridge bridge depicted above I have trouble visualizing how the gph anomalies lead to the conus getting flooded with cold air. Any wisdom to share?

I know, I was just laughing at the wording.

Man, you know the pattern is bad when you have to worry about insolation overhead at night. Fromthe RAH AFD (Long Range). Above normal temperatures will continue through much of the period, especially during the overnight hours thanks to plentiful insolation remaining overhead.

Wow, a +38 °F anomaly. That is something special right there.

Did you mean p2/p13?

As I was joking about up in your thread, we are more disturbed by the 12z op than we are enthused by the 12z gefs. We are like beaten dogs.

We would be excited but we are too busy jumping off the cliff due to the 12z GFS.

I freely admit to being one of the spook-ees I did not fully comprehend the nature of the duration caveat. I though the pattern was such that when it reached full development, it always stuck around. Although in my defense, that post did have a pre-post which advertised it as " the least popular post in americanwx history. "

I was out of circulation on the GEFS the last few days, other than what people were posting. Did it fully cave?