cbmclean

Did you mean p2/p13?

As I was joking about up in your thread, we are more disturbed by the 12z op than we are enthused by the 12z gefs. We are like beaten dogs.

We would be excited but we are too busy jumping off the cliff due to the 12z GFS.

I freely admit to being one of the spook-ees I did not fully comprehend the nature of the duration caveat. I though the pattern was such that when it reached full development, it always stuck around. Although in my defense, that post did have a pre-post which advertised it as " the least popular post in americanwx history. "

I was out of circulation on the GEFS the last few days, other than what people were posting. Did it fully cave?

I prefer that way to the alternative where I am loosing sleep because I'm emotionally disturbed by the torch. Realistically, not a good look for the SE for frozen, but I will take dry cold shots over Pacific Doom Blob any day.

Was it 2010? I remember a year around then when the NAO/AO was so persistently in our favor that it kept funneling warm air up in eastern Canada while I had record cold. Not sure what was happening in NW Canada at that time. I think that was like the grand finale of good AO/NAO blocking it has been almost universally crappy since then (with a few exceptions).

A cold Canada may or may not have any impact here. I mean I like seeing it just because I like the inherent idea of cold anywhere, but there have been winters where the cold stayed completely bottled up in there. I haven't seen any evidence of the MJO going into the cold phases. Both the GEFS and EPS seem to have it headed to the COD, which is certainly better than currently, but not particularly good.

Wasn't there a guy here who lived in that far south corner. That map must make him physically ill.

If you compare this pic from C.A.P.E with the same time stamp from Pivotal (posted by SteveRDU in the SE forum), you can really see the effect of the sites' different algorithms for snow accumulation. I live just slightly southwest of the "9.8" in eastern NC. WeatherBell shows me with zilch, Pivotal shows me with 7 inches. Even setting aside the long-lead clown map aspect of both of them without knowing anything else, I can tell you that WeatherBell is much more realistic (or rather less unrealistic). Makes me wonder how Pivotal could have such crappy algorithms or how they could be that different from each other.

Yes I misunderstood this caveat. I was under the impression that you had found that once the Pacific Doom Blob came to play it, always stayed long term.

Yeah, I'm a realist about my climo. Although I love snow, I will happily take mild/wet/cold/dry cycles as opposed to endless SER warmth. I could even hope for nice little- EPO cold snap

I was just about to make a funny post saying not to look at the 384 hour GFS if you didn't want to see another I40/85 N special but too late. One odd thing though C.A.P.E posted a map of the same model run at the same 384 hour time stamp but it was from WeatherBell. It had a much less of the good stuff south of 40/85. Wonder what the difference is.

Hey CR, can you lower the snow shields and raise the SE Ridge shields for a change?

I am infinitely happier having the EPS on my side and the GEFS on a bad island rather than the usual reverse situation, but I am having a hard time intellectually accepting the hope. I can't see the d10 - 15 EPS, but I haven't heard anyone mention a good NAO look so I am assuming it is so-so at best. PSU's research showed that the ONLY way out of this mess was NAO help, so without that I just can't see us climbing out of this hole. Nothing else was able to turn the trick. If the snow-happy 50's and 60's couldn't figure out a way to escape (other than with the NAO) I can't envision us pulling it off today. I will happily be wrong.

Watch this be the time where the GEFS gets its revenge and crushes the EPS.

Whoops: neophyte mistake.

Well he mentioned the North Atlantic trough specifically, that was what I thought he was talking about.

How does that work to help the E Conus?

Very informative, thanks.

Sorry, I do not mean to be rude, but is this post serious, or is it a parody? I have to admit it does not make any sense to me.

So using my education gained from PSUHoffman's Climo class room, (and other posts from him and others on this forum) I see 50/50 Low. Mostly troughing in PNA domain. Pacific Doom Blob is trying to turn into EPO ridge, but it is too far west to do any good. Some ridging in NAO domain, but centered too far south. TPV in Hudson Bay, nothing particularly good there. So overall this is a bad setup, right (somebody break out the red grading pin).

Now THAT is a west coast trough.

Hey PSU. If you are bored and are just looking for stuff to do, I would be really interested in seeing a similar dissertation about crappy patterns. For example, my understanding is that the crap that started right before Christmas is a different sort of fail from the Pacific Doom Blob that we will soon be enjoying. I think in one of your posts today you mentioned it as a north Pacific problem as opposed to a SW Pacific problem.

I thought that 2012 was a pig Alaska vortex, sort of like the crappy pattern we are just getting out of, as opposed to the one we are going into.