cbmclean

Cutters?

Thank you for this info.

Interesting, do any of those terms mean anything to you? I am only vaguely familiar with NWP. I was under the impression that it involves lots of non-linear partial differential equations.

I'm not sure about the statement that the long range was "inaccurate". The storm signal was there for like 10 days. The existence and approximate location were never in doubt. Yeah there was a time where it looked like DC was going to good snow, and that didn't happen but that was corrected. The fact that we knew about the storm at all from 10 days out is a miracle of modern science.

Honest question, what kind of "in-house" model could possibly be of use in serious forecasting? The big boys all run on huge government supercomputers. How could a homebrew model even have a chance. I'm not trying to criticize, just honestly curious.

My real question for PSU, more important than snow or patterns is: what the heck happened to the Eagles? I don't mean just this year. I mean in 2018 after the super bowl the future looked so bright, with plenty of talent and they were the darlings of the nation.

To each their own. I despise warm weather in the winter.

Well we knew that we were likely to have Pacific problems going in to this year. Without the Atlantic/HL help we would probably be looking at at another tropical Christmas, so I look on the bright side of that.

For example, your Boxing Day 2010 disaster was a Boxing Day 2010 dream in my neck of the woods (and a white Christmas in western NC, where I was spending Christmas with my wife's family).

So would the TPV be the Gatekeeper and the SPV the Keymaster?

Last year especially the strength of the PV was truly sickening to behold. Perhaps the most demoralizing part was the fact that modeling picked it up so early and it advanced forward in time so remorselessly. I am still scarred by your infamous post from December 30th of last year highlighting the historical results from past analogs to the pattern then forecast, absent extensive NA help.

I understand what the SPV and TPV are and that they are usually distinct entities. What happens when the SPV downwells into the TPV?

Anyone remember Christmas 2015? As long as we are far away from that, I will be satisfied.

I am unsure how to interpret this chart. Can you help?

Well I guess that DT was really serious when he said he was packing his toys and heading home, not a peep from him in some time.

You know as long as we are talking about Weenie fantasies, I think I'd rather have this dream scenario on Christmas Eve, or maybe even Dec 23rd. I think I enjoy the lead up to Christmas more than Christmas itself.

Please excuse the novice question, but what is "the benchmark"?

Only one trip to Lowes? A tip of the hat to you then. Usually takes me at least three trips to get everything I need.

Who are the redskins?

It would be the third year in a row. And both previous years the PacPuke vortex was sniffed out a long ways in advance.

You talking ensemble mean?

Who is CWG?

I'd rather it look good in the ultra-long range than bad. I look at it this way: given the known model biases towards cold in the long range, if the long range looks good, it might turn out good, it might turn out bad, it might turn out average. If the long range looks warm, that is indicative of a strong warm signal. Of course I'm just referring to consistent runs that move forward in time. Plenty of times the ultra-long ranges just flip back and forth randomly; just NWP noise.

I have been deliberately staying away from the mid-to-long range forum because reality was just too gloomy, but I popped in today and say that someone had secretly inserted some hope. Will this be the third straight early December tease, to be immediately followed by the Mid December Pac Puke, to be followed by January - March east conus ridge? There are already signs of the MJO gearing up for its winter-long promenade through phases 4 - 6. (Clarification note: When I say the early part of last December "teased" I mean that in relative terms. It was normal to very slightly cool, which promised hopes of weather which didn't suck. Obviously those promises were unfulfilled).

9.71 inches for the even event here in Wilson on my pws. Extensive looding Schools closed today and tomorrow.