cbmclean

I think the NAM is synonymous with the AO.

To be frank I think it is completely rational to be concerned that we may be on the brink of the start of a 100 year stretch, for reasons that I know you know, but I will not mention in this thread. On the other hand, I think it is not unreasonable to hope that the recent decadal wasteland of +NAO/AO may be unrelated to that dark force that we will not name and perhaps soon we will see the return to better NAO/AO behavior.

Alright, that wins the thread.

I'll just leave this here. Sleep tight.

I think he did. Ji's posts are emotional outbursts of frustration. The recent PSU post is just data. Cold, hard data. It can't be bargained with, it can't be reasoned with, and it absolutely will not stop until we are all curled up in a ball in our bedrooms with the blinds closed and clutching an old farmers almanac.

I for one am proud that I had a hand in inspiring PSU to create this masterpiece. I think this may set a record for most crushed hopes and dreams by one post. I noticed in the stat pool that this nightmare actually repeated in THREE CONSECUTIVE YEARS: 1989 - 1991. Can you imagine what would happen to this forum if that stretch were to recur? Actually, that gives me a sliver of hope. We have been at a place approximately this bad before, once for three straight years. So maybe we can recover from this in future years.

Oh poopy.

@PSUHoffman I seem to remember you debating this with someone last year. Seems like their argument was that it was physically impossible to get significant -EPO and significant -NAO at the same time. You retorted that it was indeed possible and pointed to a specific time frame. Can you remember any instances of this? I think some may call it a "ridge bridge".

I was under the impression that they had had a snowy December.

I think this map is just comparing the Ensemble Mean temp forecast between the 12Z and the 0Z. It doesn't actually show the forecast anomalies.

I think I will try to at least get through tomorrow without peeking.

I really should but I know I don't have the will-power. I also want to follow the Day 7 - 9 cool shot to see if it can at least throw you guys a bone.

Well, according to PSU's analysis, once that ridge show up, it stays all winter (yuck). Apparently the one and only way to avoid the doom is to have a stout -NAO. Since the weeklies are seeing the TPV hovering over the NAO area the whole period, it is therefore bound to predict hot garbage. So our only hope is simply that an unanticipated NAO pops up at some point. It is just that simple. I think Bob was saying that we did have a brief period of NAO blocking pop up in the medium range right around the beginning of the Pac puke, so maybe it can happen again.

Nose of doom pattern just starting to peak into under 10 days on the EPS. Maybe one day we'll have a really good pattern show up at d15 and inexorably march forward in time.

I'm a Dolphins fan so I "hate" (sports hate, not real hate) Brady and Belichek as much as anyone, but do you really thing they fade into obscurity after six superbowls and the longest stretch of sustained dominance in NFL history, heck maybe in all North American team sports history?

On the other hand, I have also seen some speculate that decreasing temp gradients between the tropics and polar regions should lead to a weakening in the polar jet. I would assume that would mean more time in the -AO mode. Sure aren't seeing it this winter though.

I saw this article earlier, maybe on this site last winter. It chilled me to the bone. Imagine in the future, 9 out of 10 years with never-ending Pac puke.

I think you may have posted this before, but how many years were in your analog pool for Pacific Doom Blob? Apparently there at least a few where the blob died earlier than others? I know I'm reaching for straws here, but not much else to do.

Sorry, the "it" I was referring to was the Pacific Doom Blob.

If you cycle through the GEFS to the very end, if you squint real hard you might be able to see it weakening and slowly migrating east. TPV is absolutely nailed to Baffin Bay.

I can't wait for it to start doing curley-cues

Well, I find it interesting, in a masochistic way, that the models, especially the EPS but all of them to some extent, have been able to zero in on our fail patterns super far out. Impressive work on their part.

Don't make PSU mad - I hear he has the power to cause a bad pattern.

I think we have had several recent -NAO episodes in march. It's kind of a running joke int he SE forum. I think there may have even been one last year.

So in others words, like 2016 in the SE forum area.