cbmclean

Sigh

My area has recorded its earliest leaf out in the 39 year history of the metric. It is currently 71 °F at my house.

I remember PSU saying the seasonal models were predicting a mostly +AO state and him being puzzed why. Whatever they saw, they were right.

What does he mean that he holds snowfall anomaly "in disdain".

Oh we will, this is just a thought experiment to wile away the time.

Depressing yet fascinating. I wish I was an eccentric billionaire who could found an institute devoted solely to studying teleconnections seasonal forcing. As an aside, I also noticed from the graph the strong negative correlation between to anomalies in in the Davis Strait/Baffin Islan/Labrador/SW Greenland area. That is where the PV has been parked much of this winter and I seem to remember showmethesnow mentions this area in a response he posted recently. So apparently when the PV strengthens it tends to get drawn to this area like a moth to flame? Do know why this is? Why isn't it equally like to set up shop over Ellesmere Island or Barrow or Novaya Zemlya?

I noticed an interesting graphic on the Arctic Oscillation page for Wikipedia. This is a counterpart to the graphic that Don S. posted for extreme AO events, but generalized for all AO. So I notice that basically the only midlatitude land which isn't on fire is the western CONUS, just like we have seen this season. But I also notice the mean warm anomaly north of Hawaii. So seems like more evidence that the Pacific Doom Blob of January wasn't just coincidental with the continuing pain that is the AO this year. The PDB is perhaps just a manifestation of the +++++++++++++++AO. And I am probably not telling anybody anything they didn't already know, but it struck me.

Only need 20 more straight years of this, and we might have the Arctic sea ice back in a reasonable shape. Actually, this is an interesting hypothetical discussion. There is a rather strident guy over at WattsUpWithThat (don't throw tomatoes, I just go there for the graphs, honest) who is convinced that the entire institution of climatology is full of poo and that AGW is not going to be a big issue because it will be severely moderated by negative feedback mechanisms. One of the negative feedback mechanisms that he has touted is increased cloud cover due to convection in the SW Pacific. So for fun's sake let's just assume the following hypothetical: that he is on to something and the increased MJO forcing in the maritime continent/crap zones that we love so much is actually impacting the AO to become more positive. So let's assume that our recent predilection to go on season-long grand tours of zones 4 -5- 6 is the new base state which will cause us 20 straight years of snowless misery, give or take the occasional fluke. BUT let's also assume that it will cause a continual +++AO which will keep the cold air locked up in the Arctic and will thus help the Arctic sea ice to significantly recover. So my hypothetical question is: will you guys accept the trade-off. Would 20 years of this kind of fail be worth it to get back to the halcyon days of yore with a cool base state?

I was under the impression that the late December fail was a different beast: the AK vortex Pac Puke. AO was actually negative from roughly Dec 15th - 25th or so, but was trumped by the mild Pacific air.

OK everybody how does this year rank among the great dumpster fires of the last several decades? Hating this more/less than 2001-2002, 2011 - 2012 etc?

Something is puzzling me about how extreme +AO evens. Earlier today frd shared a post from Don S. about 500 HP/temp anomalies of extreme +AO events. The pic below is taken from Don S.'s post. So as they teach us in beginner weenie school +AO means PV/polar jet is stronger than normal so tends to keep low heights bottled and cold air bottled up in the high latitudes, with warm air in the middle latitutes. And you can see that to be the case in Don S.' plots, a ring of ridging/warmth in the midlatitudes: the eastern CONUS, Europe, China. BUT there for some reason there is a big trough/cold anomaly in teh western CONUS. Anyone have any idea what that is all about?

I'm honestly interested in the AO watch, following the once-in-a-lifetime chance to see it go to +23. I am rooting for the heights in the PV to get so low that the air condenses into liquid.

I understand, it's just frustrating.

Well that didn't take long.

This +1000. We've been teased with better looks (or at least less bad looks) off and on for weeks. Not going to get too excited.

Actually, I really admire your ability to care deeply about it, but yet keep it in healthy perspective. You enjoy the thrill of the chase and building your understanding of the science, but you keep it in its proper place. Although I do imagine you have a nice basement weather-cave with 12 giant monitors showing all the models in a continuous loop, and one wall devoted totally to the Joe Bastardi bathtub theory.

No, it won't but that doesn't change how I feel. I have the exact same gnawing existential dread linked to climate change that Maestrobjwa seems to describe. I wish I could consciously chose to not care, but I can't. I am not made that way. I'm not trying to "convert" you (not that you could be converted anyway). Just expressing my feelings in a safe space with other people who love cold and snow.

Vice-regent is right, always right.

Oh, you've done it now.

Looking at the NAO, at first glance, the 2010s doesn't look too horrible. Definitely skewed positive from about 2013 on. But its deceptive. Most of the blue is in late summer to fall. If you just look at Jan - March, a different and more familiar picture emerges. After the spectacular neg spike of 2010 it has been downwhill, or rather uphill, uninterrupted + since 2015. That graph also clearly shows the state change from the 50s/60s/70s "good ole days" to a much more hostile environment since 1980. Something is clearly different. The big question for us, is it natural variability or you know what?

Looking at the last decade, heavily skewed to + since start of 2017, with the exception of mid-to-late 2019, which obviously has corrected itself. Looking back further: man, from mid 1988 to mid 1993 was UGLY. Conversely, look and drool at the late 1950's to early 1960s. No wonder it was a snow nirvana.

Didn't you say your record low was 18"? That's all I'm rooting for now, everybody band together and carry PSU over the finish line to 19".

After posting I was kind of thinking that it might attract attention from you. Is it actually even possible to reap a SE weenie? We are kind of reaped by default from birth.

Alright, in all serious, I have started to catch myself already looking forward to next year. Just ready to not have the gloom of the three stooges/keystone cops level of pattern mishaps hanging over our heads anymore. Is that a sign of sickness?

The elves who are driving the crappy Atlantic and the gremlins who are driving the horrible Pacific have been pretty locked in this year.