cbmclean

Trying to understand cyclogenesis better. If anyone else on here like me who knows very little about it, I found a very nice youtube video discussing the topic. with really nice 3D diagrams that make terms like "cold conveyor belt" make more sense to the layman.

Ah thanks...so much to learn.

On this plot what indicates "energy"? I am used to seeing people refer to "energy" when they are talking about areas of enhanced vorticity on vorticity maps, but I don't see what you are referring to on this map.

Eerily quiet around here.

If you are feeling didactic tonight, what exactly is a "transfer"? I only have the vaguest idea of storm dynamics.

What was the WeatherMachine?

Just curious how much impact you think the hostile November had. You have mentioned it a few times as a negative factor, but was it a MAJOR factor?

GEFS 850 MB temp anomalies still look to improve considerably after Jan 16, both for us and for our source region. 2m anomalies are disappointing though.

I am considering a project to amuse me and perhaps improve my coding and weather skills. I would really like to keep track of the various ensemble predictions for temperatures as they change day to day. Does anyone know where I can access numerical data for GEFS temperature outputs for a specific weather station from day 1 to Day 15? I would love to have all the ensemble members available so I could plot a mean and a spread.

Oddly enough it been seasonal or maybe slightly below down here in NC. This has me mostly happy because 10 days ago it looked like a pure torch for us.

I am considering a project to amuse me and perhaps improve my coding and weather skills. I would really like to keep track of the various ensemble predictions for temperatures as they change day to day. Does anyone know where I can access numerical data for GEFS temperature outputs for say RDU from day 1 to Day 15? I would love to have all the ensemble members available so I could plot a mean and a spread.

Given the NA temp anomalies since November I'd be surprised if there is anywhere in the US where the snow is "good" compared to their climo. Unless its some mountain area where they are getting more moisture than usual.

20210109 12Z updates 12Z GEFS 12Z EPS Day1 - 5 3 3 Day 6 - 10 5 5 Day 11-15 8 2

I don't have access to any of the pay sites so I just have TT and they didn't have the 12Z yet, so I wasn't in on it. My heart sank. Now its back on life support.

Honest question, who could you possibly be driving nuts with this? If one is not interested in discussions like that, why would they be here? I'm honestly perplexed.

Heard on the MA forum that 00Z EPS is disastrous past about Day 7. 06Z GEFS looked great, but someone said 12Z caved to the EPS. Still awaiting confirmation.

Just saw a post in the banter thread from leesburg 04 that the 12Z GEFS caved to the EPS. Is this true?

Its been tried before, once while I have been around. It immediately devolves into a confusing mash with people posting pattern stuff in the storm thread and storm stuff in the pattern thread.

An ignorant question I know, but when actually are the approximate times that the 00Z/12Z ensembles tend to become available?

The NPAC vortex is also probably an even lesser of the two evils when it is not preceded by a month long +AO torch that causes Canada to be warm to begin with.

I am curious as to why there is an increased thermal gradient. My understanding is that high latitudes are warming faster than the tropics so I would expect that to lead to a reduced thermal gradient.

But it also has a correlation to dryness. No moisture, no snow.

I admit to being a fainter, but I try to keep my spells off of the board. That being said, I am only able to devote a tiny percentage of the time to this hobby that I would like right now so I depend on this board for pretty much all my LR information. I'm actually going to try to make myself a little chart to encapsulate a subjective opinion the status of how good or bad the pattern looks on the two primary ensembles (GEFS, EPS). To keep it apples-to-apples I am only going to ignore the 06Z and 18Z GEFS, and just consider at the 00Z and 12Z runs. So my plan is to fill in this chart with values from 1 - 10, with 1 being last January and 10 being the best pattern you can imagine. I accept any and all suggestions for numbers 00Z GEFS 00Z EPS Day1 - 5 3 3 Day 6 - 10 5 5 Day 11-15 7 1

I lurk a lot on here and I'd say the GEFS gets almost as much attention as the EPS. If the EPS gets a bit more attention, its because it has superior verification scores. I haven't looked but someone said that the GEPS agrees with the EPS. So its definitely worth some concern.

I watched too. Hard to believe he's gone.