cbmclean

I just got NAMed.

So he lives NW of Greensboro NC and you live NW of Greensboro Maryland? Did you guys plan that? NW NC has actually been on a bit of a heater the two previous winters. Two or three random waves really hit a sweet spot in various locations over there.

If I somehow managed to squeeze an inch out of this ridiculous farce of a winter, I would take it to the bank and ride off merrily into the ++++++AO sunset. I honestly don't see it happening though. The Fail is too strong this year.

Did some one call?

Sucks to just completely lose a year like this. Perhaps the AO/NAO base state will become less unfriendly soon in the next couple of years.

Who is Bryan Alston, and why has he stolen Maestrobjwa's icon!!!

Luckily you guys have Rutgers in there to take the spotlight off of you.

For some reason, I am actually kind of surprised at how many Terps fans there are here. I am kind of curious if you guys like being in the Big 10. I miss the old ACC days before it essentially merged with the Big East.

Well, on the positive side, when the flip does occur, it will make this long-track, well blocked-storms all the more precious after having years like this.

I know you're backed by the data, but man it is a loooooooong wait. I will note that if the previous negative bias period ended after 2010 - 11, then near the end the blocking was historic So perhaps this year is the mirror image "grand finale" of the crap + period.

I have been plowing through the monthly statistics at RDU, which the closest NWS site for me. This year had the sixth warmest January on record. The record is Jan 1950, but #3 is Jan 1949. So 1949-50 had two back to back January crapfests. It can happen again.

I'm just kind of curious if you know what scapism actually was (or supposedly was). I happened to run across in my usuall Wikipedia leisure reading. So it caught my attention when I saw a beer named after it. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scaphism

Honest question: but why? If it could happen in 97 - 98, why couldn't it happen again, especially with the phenomenon which shall not be named occurring?

Wow, the 0° is OFF THE COAST south of San Diego. If this gets any worse it'll be snowing in Tijuana.

Somewhere on the CPC site I think they have the daily AO data back to 1950. I think I might try to pull it and do a histogram to see what the distribution looks like.

Never mind, you answered me before I could even ask the question.

If you guys can pull in the cold from the north I'll try to guard your southern frontier to hold back the return flow. It shall not pass!! Seriously though, which guidance is showing this relaxation? I have to admit to having basically checked out, so I haven't been following the trends.

Wait, I know it went over +6, but is that unit in standard deviations in the normal sense? Just historically it seems to spend a lot more time outside of +/-2 than I would expect for something with a normal (gaussian) distribution.

January 2018.

I like that random patch in the middle of the Atlantic with 80-90% odds of 3 inches.

The sentiment is much appreciated, but we all deserve some winter. Unfortunately, in the words of the great Clint Eastwood....

Don't worry, it's not happening. I'm a SE weenie, but I'm not delusional.

Well, I am from Hope Mills, NC, which is just south of Fayetteville. I probably mentioned that sometime. I am rooting for some sort of fluke to sneak in and give at least some of you guys some love. For here, I'll be satisfied if I can just get some seasonable weather to fend of the bugs for a while. I'll be dreaming of next year.

Even without the ignore button, I just skim over his posts and also all the posts arguing with him, except when someone actually presents hard data which I find interesting. Speaking of which I downloaded the hard data for RDU from the NOAA and have started to slice and dice various interesting statistics. So far I have seen that December was "only" our 12th warmest, but it was tied for 6th for least number of days with min<32. Has anyone seen the numbers for Dec and Jan for IAD and DCA in terms of Tavg?

CPC page gives this definition. I am trying to make heads or tails of it. " The daily AO index is constructed by projecting the daily (00Z) 1000mb height anomalies poleward of 20°N onto the loading pattern of the AO. " So I understand the concept of geopotential height anomaly, although I am not used to see it at 1000 MB. What does it mean to "project it on the loading pattern".