cbmclean
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Everything posted by cbmclean
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Snow_in_Florida
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I'm glad to see you spell it right!!
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So some years ago I thought the whole notion of "the models will change when the storm gets better sampled over land" was ridiculed into oblivion along with the "18Z models are trash" myth. I was told that the vast majority of model ingestion is from satellite soundings and that RAOBs were of much reduced importance. Now I'm hearing this idea being resurrected all over the place by people who seem to know what they are talking bout. So which is it?
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Ah you're one of those types. Just Kidding. I vividly remember the dreaded snowline between Raleigh and Fayetteville from my childhood as well. When I moved to Greensboro for college I remember reveling in the marginal events that were snow there and rain back home.
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Not disputing your basic point, but there were widespread -30s and I believe some -40s in the 2021 outbreak in the Midwest. Of course the east coast was completely shielded from that outbreak by our beloved friend, the SER.
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Hey, which High School did you go to? I'm from Hope Mills.
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Agreed. It would be about 0.9" more than I have seen in the last three tears combined..
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DON'T GET SUCKED BACK IN!! They're just toying with us.
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I believe their record is 4" back in March 1954. Must have been an anomalous pattern.
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GFS and ICON both show Teeny-Tiny NW trends, but only in the N extent of the moisture, very little change in track. At this point it is far too little, too late. for inland folks in the Carolinas.
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Only need about 400 hundred more model cycles of this NW trend and Central NC will be back in the game!! Icon and FV3 starting an unstoppable trend going from .001 qpf to .01 qpf.
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It will still be extremely cold. Just not extremely extreme.
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Wasn't it was as away SE though?
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Got down to 16.3.
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Huh, neither looks good for NC, but 12Z is definitely less bad, unless you're talking the Outer Banks.
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Euro literally has snow in the GOM off Galveston and south of New Orleans.. Now THAT ladies and gentlemen, is suppressed.
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Oh com the f!cK on: 6.4" in the GOM of Galveston?
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That well-known Tallahassee-to-Savannah snow corridor. You know how being a snow weenie in the SE is? I am now actively rooting for the cold push to be less intense than the models say.
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I wouldn't say the storm is lost yet. Yeah the GFS lost it but right now it is not performing well. I think it is in 4th place behind the euro, CMC, and Ukie. They all have it so...
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whoops, yes thanks.
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Big 3 ensembles show the SER firmly in charge at the end of their runs. Hopefully they are hallucinating a canonical nina response.
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In the MA thread there has been discussion about how bad the GFS has been performing lately, besides the euro, CMC, UKIE, the Euro AI is also trouncing it. Perhaps time to relegate it to the JV along with the ICON and the JMA.
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We would be better served to look at the medians anyway, as they are not skewed by the outrageous totals of a few outliers. Not sure if any site provides the medians?
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This might sound silly but my eyes have been dazzled by all the pretty maps; what is the actual timeframe of the event that we are trying to reel in? 1/21?
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That would be perfect for a northwest trend if it was 2 days out.
