cbmclean

We need a Canadian Maritimes subforum on here.

Hey I'm the epicenter. I'm all in.

That goes out past where I can see on TT. What does the temp profile look like?

Hey, been waiting for you to show up. Turn those Shields off!!!

Too suppressed even for NC. This panel caught my eye though: 540 line down almost to Miami, and snow breaking out over the gulf stream.

Gotta love this one. 540 line down almost to Miami.

Curious, why is that a "lol"?

Not much going on for at least the next week, unless I missed something new.

Is that good bad or indifferent?

Not angels, but close enough.

Continuing my little 18z GEFS temp forecast monitoring project for MBY. Overall not much change from yesterday's 18Z. I did note an improved temperature profile in Southern Canada which is a little encouraging.

I'm getting the urge to see more that what Tropical Tidbits has to offer so am considering dipping my toe into a pay sight. My big interest right now is temperature forecasts. I would love to be able to see the temperature spread across the various ensemble members. Anyone have any recommendations for pay sites? I mean Weatherbell is the big one I know. Just interested in knowing if there are any other good options available for temperature stuff.

Interesting. The December pattern is quite different in the western cons and in the west Pac.

Wait I thought it was a good thing. Jeez I can't keep up.

Several options 1. Slightly reduce solar output. 2. Slightly increase the earth's orbital distance. 3. Cause the collapse of industrial civilization and wait a few centuries. Seriously, there are smart people who feel that the consistently fast Pac jet is a consequence of the "elephant in the room which shall not be discussed in this thread". Which should make your blood run cold (or hot) because it might mean that we will be stuck with it for the foreseeable future. Furthermore it preferentially suck in North America because it causes all the cold air to stick to Eurasia and floods us with Pac puke.

Quick question: can anyone actually remember the last sustained good North Pacific pattern? So far this year it has been the poop on our shoe. It was a raging fire last year and also the year before that. I know the first weak of January 2018 was very cold here so I am presuming we had a good Pacific then, but can't remember anything else since 2013 - 2014.

Excellent graphics. Thanks for the post. What exactly is the ideal Pacific pattern for SE snow? I know that a big EPO ridge can lead to some nice cold shots, but I have also heard they tend to be cold and dry followed by warm ups when SWs come through

Thanks.

rimshot.

I have started a little project to keep track of the the GEFS ensemble mean temperature predictions in MBY. For every daily run at 18z, I am entering the 2m temp prediction for each 24 hours thereafter (as taken from TT). I noticed a sharp warming in the predicted temps for the 6 - 10 day period between 18z yesterday and 18z today. This matches BAMWx post someone posted a few hours ago. Can anyone comment on the EPS temp profile form the 12z run? Is it seeing any nice cold?

Who is RR?

All of them I suspect.

Is it just me or are the models really flip-flopping on that EPO ridge? Seems like every other run its either gone or raging.

At we work so cant do detailed look. How is the source region looking over the next 10 day in general on guidance?

So not just one random bad run. That is concerning. What does euro/EPS have to say?