cbmclean

Can you tell the GFS to shut up?

Wheres the NW trend when you need it?

I wouldn't worry to much about it. Last year, amidst the simultaneous raging ++++AO with Pacific Doom Blob, the GFS somehow managed to spit out snowstorm for Jacksonville, Florida. It was gone the next run, and needless to say, it didn't happen.

I know who I have my money on.

December was just plain average here in most of NC. But that's actually a huge win compared to the last five years and also how things were looking in many of the seasonal forecasts in the fall.

I don;t have access to any EPO forecasts. So what's the current state? In PSU's recent progression e-mails he has mentioned an upcoming -EPO event which will unfortunately dump into the west. Is that not happening now? And as much as these guys annoy me, they have been correct the last several years about several advertised -EPO periods that never materialized (but man they seem to make a special effort to do so as pompously and arrogantly as possible). ETA: I see my question was answered before I even asked it.

Is "WB's JB" = Joe Bastardi?

If the models runs improve, you will be expected to stump your toes every day through the end of Februray.

As a Dolphins fan, I will always have a bit of soft spot in my heart for Doug. He was QB at the end of the game in 1993 that Don Shula got the record for most wins as a coach. (the year that Marino was hurt.)

I was wondering what you thought of the Pedersen firing.

Thanks for the analysis. I suspected that it was likely not a reproducible pattern but in desperation I'm looking for anything which might possibly "work". Speaking of the Pac Jet, you have mentioned that our choice is to have it either pointed at us, with the result being a Pac puke torch, or else at Canada, with the result that our source region torches. Is there no configuration which leads to it being pointed to the southeast, like at Mexico? You have never mentioned that as a possibility so I am assuming its not feasible, but I was wondering why.

We got a few inches of snow down here towards the end of the pattern which is enough to satisfy us for the most part. The fresh snow cover was what allowed me to hit 0 °F. Then the pattern shifted and we torched for the rest of the January and all of February. March was chill though as you guys surly remember.

I haven't been since last year right before COVID hit, but to my knowledge they are still going strong. They did get in trouble due to some COVID compliance issues back in the fall. https://www.witn.com/2020/09/29/coronavirus-guideline-violations-reported-at-parkers-in-wilson/

Ponds froze over and I hit 0 °F in Wilson NC, which is in the coastal plain. That is amazing for here. Back then I had even less knowledge of global weather patterns than I do now, so I wasn't really paying attention to what was driving the cold. Now I want to understand.

The last significant cold outbreak I remember in my neck of the woods US was late December 2017/early January 2018. Not much snow up you guys way but it was 2 weeks of solid cold. I am assuming that it was Pacific driven. I took a look at the 500HP anomalies from that period and it didn't really make sense to me. Would you be interested in analyzing that period to see what was going on?

That is a valid point, but I if I understand correctly, I think the negativity in the main thread currently is due to a notable degradation in the outlook across all three "majors" (GFS, Euro, CMC) during the course of several consecutive runs. I think its completely legitimate to be discouraged right now.

I have to disagree. When the model guidance is good, PSU says so. When it is bad he is sometimes discouraged as are we all. Right now guidance is bad or at least clearly trending the wrong way. Ji on the other hand...

So is the Pacific Jet retraction cancelled?

Assuming this wave goes down in flames, what is your assessment of general potential in days beyond (d10 -16)?

Anyone know what the Pacific jet is up to? Last I saw it was forecast to significantly retract, which is crucial to our hopes for cold.

Uh oh.

Last year there was a brief period where the modeling consistently advertised a significant improvement from the Pacific Doom Blob regime. I remember distinctly that this modeled improvement started to fall apart jast as the Ravens were losing to Tennessee last year. At the time I was hoping that the negative interpretation of the modelling had a lot to do with the emotions from the game. But alas it was not the case. The look continued to degrade over the next few days and the rest is history. Hopefully we don;t get a redux this year.

Saw tiny snowflakes for about 30 seconds in Wilson.