cbmclean

Here is a ranked graph of RDU snowfall from 1991-2020. Note the Carolina crusher sticks out like a beautiful sore thumb.

For RDU, the mean for 1981 - 2010 was 6.75 " so when we lost the 1980's our mean went down a good bit. Our median plummeted though. It was 4.25".

I will look in a minute, but first I have obtained the yearly snowfall amounts from 1991 - 2020. The median snowfall is......2.5 inches, less than half the mean! So RDU has already exceed its real "normal" snowfall for the year. Congratulations for us all. (note, I treat "T" as zeros in my calculations Here is the yearly data 1990-1991 0 1991-1992 0 1992-1993 2.5 1993-1994 4.4 1994-1995 2.2 1995-1996 14.6 1996-1997 0.4 1997-1998 2.4 1998-1999 0 1999-2000 25.8 2000-2001 2.6 2001-2002 10.8 2002-2003 7.4 2003-2004 14.9 2004-2005 0.9 2005-2006 0 2006-2007 1.6 2007-2008 0.5 2008-2009 7.1 2009-2010 8 2010-2011 9 2011-2012 0.9 2012-2013 1.7 2013-2014 5.8 2014-2015 7.9 2015-2016 1.4 2016-2017 0.8 2017-2018 8.9 2018-2019 8.9 2019-2020 2.5

What do you define as normal? For the 1991 - 2020 period, RDU "normal" (mean) is 5.2 inches: 2.6 in Jan, 1.4 in Feb, 0.3 in March, 0.1 in Nov, and 0.8 in December. I haven't been able to find the yearly numbers to calculate a median but I am certain it is significantly less than the mean.

Last year was very frustrating in that regard. It started in November, which was a ++++++AO nightmare which torched our source regions. That broke down but was instantly replaced with weeks-long Pac puke in December. By January even with great blocking there was no cold to be had in the entire hemisphere. By mid February that finally changed, but by then our blocking went "poof" and the cold dumped into the southern plains leading to historic events there. C'est la vie.

To clarify, it might be better to say "good results are much less improbable in good patterns". Good results are still unlikely at our latitudes. Obviously in my neck of the woods that is even more true.

Because good results are much more probable in good patterns and bad results are much more probable in bad patterns.

Any one have the 1999-2020 raw data easily accessible for RDU? I am curious to compare the mean vs the median. I am guessing that at least 2 out of 3 years are below the 30 year mean.

The majority of years are below average at RDU when it comes to snow.

Its so safe you wouldn't believe!!!

The marathon man.

Just when I thought I was out...

Is it unhealthy that I attempted to hire some guys to break that SWs knees? But then I realized that that would just make it fall behind more.

I love the term "grandboss".

Isn't he from Richmond. We don't claim there. He's all you.

I am curious how you extract vorticity consolidation, or lack thereof, from that map.

I agree that the original post could have been interpreted as unnecessary jab at us in the SE, but the mockery of their snow disappointment was poor taste in my opinion. We had a good day today. Let's just enjoy the feeling without trying to poop on other's parade.

I am embarrassed on behalf of the SE board. Not all of us are like that.

Did the reaper wear shoes? I always envisioned him with boney feet.

Luckily, we weren't fooled for a minute, right guys?

March 1-3, 1927 would like to have a word with you. This is from Eric Webb's ridiculously interesting historical archive of NC snow events. http://www.webberweather.com/about.html

No. -NAO means HIGH geopotential heights around Greenland. A storm hanging out over Greenland would mean low heights there and thus a +NAO. That being said, big storms do sometimes hang out in the area around latitude 50 N, longitude 50 W and become what is called a "50/50 low"/ Those can be just as helpful with blocking as well.

Nothing. With no blocking it comes down to absolutely perfect timing to keep a storm that amped from cutting to Denver. That's why its unlikely to go down that way in reality. Still pretty to look at.

Could you clarify as bit what a "gradient pattern " is?

Just where we want it for now?