cbmclean

The entire SE forum has passed out from that 18z run.

A model run like that just makes it more painful when it goes poof.

Disappointing yes, but I look at it this way. When models show big cold, the probability of it actually verifying is low. When the models DON'T show big cold, the probability of getting big cold is ABSOLUTELY ZERO. Big cold is a possibility for sometime in February. Will it happen? Probably not. But a small chance is better than a zero chance, which is what we have most of the time.

I have been doing a little personal project to keep tabs on the GEFS ensemble mean temperature forecast for my area, using the maps available o Tropical Tidbits. I am using this data point in the "Eastern U.S." region view, as it is closest to me. I am keeping a running log of the 2m temp forecast at 18Z (1 PM) day by day. I just noted very large swing to cold in the long in the day 6 - 16 period between the Jan 31 18Z forecast and the Feb 1 18Z forecast. Of particular note is the Feb 10 - 13 period. Direct comparison is shown below. Jan 31 18Z Feb 1 18Z Delta Feb 10 54 32 -22 Feb 11 65 35 -30 Feb 12 67 29 -38 Feb 13 71 39 -32 Overall, the average forecast 2m Temperature for 18Z dropped by 11 °F in the Day 6 - 10 period and by 17.5 °F for the Day 11 - 15 period. Here is a graph It should go without saying that this forecast will probably moderate but I thought it was a significant signal.

Someone rang?

Don't forget Texas.

So true, but to be fair the Pacific was various flavors of dumpster fire through 2018-19 and 2019-20. It's not like the Pacific and Atlantic immediately switched places from good to bad. Last year they were both horrible. Right now the Pacific looks the least bad it has all winter so maybe we can make hay while the sun is shining (figuratively speaking).

What kind of beverages do they serve? Bottles of 33 degree rain?

I am really glad BobChill is back, but I have to admit, I miss his old icon. Am I the only one?

Your brethren in the MA look to get a potential mauling starting tomorrow. I am rooting for them.

That hint of SE ridge should make you guys salivate, just enough ridge to fight off suppression. For myself (and your brother NW of Greensboro, NC) it is worrisome.

Well I love the idea of snow so I like everybody to get theirs. Plus you guys getting snow helps to chill the airmas to our north! I'm hoping you guys get clobbered on Sun-Mon. This was a rare eastern NC special. I measured somewhere between 1.5 - 2 inches on the ground when I woke up, depending on where I measured. My wife said that some areas she saw were closer to 3 inches. Boundary layer was warm so wouldn't be surprised if we lost a good bit before it started sticking. All in all a completely acceptable event for us.

Me too. I wander in from a completely different forum just to root for you guys. That and keep tabs on PSUs cache.

Wait, your location says DC so...

Still 47 in Wilson.

Remember to use protection.

Where is Greg Fishel hanging out these days? I heard he was in Florida. I miss him badly on WRAL.

Would you snow on me? I'd snow on me. I'd snow on me soooo hard.

I agree with that assessment. I'm not saying that just because the GEFS isn't showing cold there can't be cold. I'm just saying that as of now, the GEFS is not advertising any significant cold.

I've been checking in everyday on the 18Z GEFS ensemble mean temps. So far, it is not advertising any notable cold.

Cold. We. Must. Have. Cold. It is clear that the current seasonal thermal profile is not going to support sufficient dynamics to "make its own cold" for significant snow in the eastern CONUS.

I like the original better: "We may not be possible" really expresses the existential crisis that affects snow lovers in the southern half of eastern North America right now.

That says it all: "We may not be possible"

After this latest debacle, perhaps its just time to ignore storm tracks in the LR and just focus on thermals. Seems like the only way out of this mess is to get a legit, long-lasting cold dump into the CONUS. Unless that happens, seems it is game over.

According to this presentation, it is the "U.S. Navy Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center" http://weather.ou.edu/~scavallo/classes/metr_4424/nwp_intro.pdf ETA: I think that might be synonymous with the NAVGEM.