cbmclean

But exponential economic (and its intertwined scientific growth) is the ONLY reason you and I are currently sitting in heated houses typing on computers right this second. In fact you and I might not be alive at all right now otherwise because the carrying capacity of the planet would be much less. I despise warm winters to the very core of my being. I am not a shill for big coal or even remotely a climate denier. AGW could possibly lead to enormous human suffering down the road. But the fact is that to this point the ledger is heavily weighted to the positive in terms of cost/benefit, at least in MATERIAL terms. (It's much murkier when you consider mental, spiritual and aesthetic factors). Renewables are definitely the way of the future BUT they are not easy as you can see in Europe right now. It is quite fortunate for them tat their winter has been so mild given the currewnt situation. It will take decades of hard work to realize, and TBH we have to realize that it might not be possible without a drastic reduction in living standards. I guess my overall point is: don't consider yourself an innocent who has been sinned against by stupid greedy ancestors. If that isn't really your attitude I apologize for the assumption but I hear that attitude a lot and it irks me.

Omicron did the exact same thing last year. We're just going to have to live with it going forward. Take the appropriate precautions for yourself but also have some thought for the immunocompromised among us. But life must go on.

Would you take a pre-industrial climate if you had to live a pre-industrial life? Heck would you want a 1950's climate if you only had access to 1950 technology? The environmental degradation caused by the industrial revolution is probably the cause of our current snow woes. Fair enough Would you trade it back?

It seems we do need that now.

Thanks. I didn't look at the index before I posted. That said I have seen info recently about the PV being anomalously strong. I had though "strong PV" was essentially synonymous "+AO". I really enjoy reading your analysis and it helps me learn so much. Would you have any interest in a brief write-up on the overall NH pattern as it currently is? I'd like to understand the nature of our current fail pattern. And by fail I don't mean not getting snow for this or that individual short wave, I mean "no cold air south of Ellesmere island".

So did we transition from Pac puke fail to ++++++AO fail? I missed the memo.

Are there any realistic hopes for a more favorable pattern in say late January? Obviously the current one is unlikely to get it done.

If it degrades even slightly the crappy air mass will be insurmountable. Eta: Well maybe I'm a bit pessimistic, but truthfully there is not a lot of wiggle room.

52.3 inches. Buffalo is unimpressed.

I accept it. Rooting for the west crew.

@Coldrain

So if warm phases mean we are screwed, and "cold" phases mean we may be screwed, we still prefer the cold phases, because screwage is not certain.

Let's not hate on the LR ensembles too much. The cold period that just passed was very disappointing, but it did occur, and it was reasonably impressive. The current warm period was also well advertised on the models.

We need snow.

Hmm, CFS has decent wave going into 1,2. We can hope.

From the Wikipedia article on the Pleistocene (I know it's Wikipedia but thought it was interesting nonetheless): According to Mark Lynas (through collected data), the Pleistocene's overall climate could be characterised as a continuous El Niño with trade winds in the south Pacific weakening or heading east, warm air rising near Peru, warm water spreading from the west Pacific and the Indian Ocean to the east Pacific, and other El Niño markers. So if the ice age was a continuous El Nino the new warm future will be...?

Back to square 1 on GEFS and GEPS. Day 10+ shows western trough and eastern ridge on both, somewhat less bad on the GEPS.

The answer is: none. Serious question, any idea what the mechanism is for this anomaly pattern? The mid-latitudes are on fire like its a +++++AO, but the arctic is warm as well, like its a -AO. I know the root cause, is Lord Voldemort, but I would like to understand the nature of how hit is happening.

I know you have repeatedly said that MA "should" not need cross-polar flow to get snow, but did you really regularly get "workmanlike" snows with pac puke? Using the standard airmass type nomenclature (not sure who defines this) I would equate "pac puke" with "maritime polar", "domestic cold" with "continental polar" and cross-polar flow with "continental arctic". So before was a good bit of MA snow coming with mP airmasses?

So right now, do we care at all what goes on with the SPV? I was under the impression it only mattered (good or bad) if it was tightly coupled with the TPV.

I don't know. therapy bills are pretty expensive.

More a strat stretch. Nothing much to get excited about.

Certainly. Just noting the crappy results for that one model on that one run.

00z GEPS looks ugly at 384. -PNA, +EPO, +NAO, hints of a Pacific Doom Blob.

0z CMC give a bit of blue over you guys hours 198 -210.